ICM Capital - Market Update

Tuesday, April 1, 2025

marketupdate@ICMCapital.co.uk

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Market Comment

Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Monday, major U.S. stock indexes bounced off their session lows, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing 417 points higher (+1.00%) at 42,001, and the S&P 500 up 30 points (+0.55%) to 5,611.

The Nasdaq 100 was down over 2% at open but managed to close just 2 points lower (-0.02%) at 19,278.

For the whole month of March, the Nasdaq 100 lost 7.69%, and the S&P 500 was down 5.75%, both marking their worst monthly losses since December 2022.

Palantir (PLTR) fell a further 1.69%, Tesla (TSLA) dropped 1.67%, and Nvidia (NVDA) was down 1.18%.

On the other hand, Apple (AAPL) rebounded 1.94%, and Alphabet (GOOGL) edged up 0.20%.

Moderna (MRNA) slid 8.90%, and Pfizer (PFE) fell 4.12%. Vaccine makers were dragged by the resignation of a leading vaccine official in the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield slipped 5 basis points to 4.205%.

European stocks remained under pressure. with the DAX 40 dropping a further 1.33%, the CAC 40 down 1.58%, and the FTSE 100 down 0.88%.

U.S. WTI crude-oil futures climbed 2.12 dollars (+3.10%) to 71.48 dollars a barrel. Oil prices were buoyed by supply concerns after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose more tariffs on Russia and to possibly attack Iran.

Gold price continued its record-breaking rally, advancing over 1% to mark an all-time high of 3,127 dollars an ounce.

Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar index rebounded to 104.19.

EUR/USD declined 11 pips to 1.0816. Germany's inflation rate ticked down to 2.2% year on year in March from 2.3% in February.

USD/JPY rose 14 pips to 149.96.

GBP/USD slipped 21 pips to 1.2917.

AUD/USD fell 41 pips to 0.6246.

USD/CHF climbed 37 pips to 0.8840, and USD/CAD advanced 67 pips to 1.4384.

Bitcoin chalked an intraday high of 83,920 dollars before retreating to 82,400 dollars, largely flat as compared to the prior session.

Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, USD/JPY retreated to 149.80. Japan's jobless rate fell to 2.4% in February, below 2.6% expected, while Tankan large manufacturers index slipped to 12 in the first quarter, above 11 estimated.

Meanwhile, AUD/USD edged up to 0.6260 as the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its benchmark rate at 4.10% as expected. Also, Australia's retail sales grew 0.2% month-on-month in February as expected.

On the other hand, China's Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to 51.2 in March, above 51.0 expected.

EUR/USD advanced to 1.0823 and GBP/USD rose to 1.2932.

Gold advanced to 3,142 dollars, marking another record high.

Bitcoin edged up to 82,941 dollars.

Expected Today

The eurozone's inflation rate is expected to ease to 2.1% year-on-year in March, while jobless rate is anticipated to climb to 6.3% in February.

U.K. Nationwide housing prices index is expected to grow 0.3% month-on-month in March.

In the U.S., the ISM manufacturing purchasing managers index is estimated to slip to 50.0 in March, while JOLTs job openings are expected at 7.6 million.

Forex	Last	%1D	%YTD
EUR/USD	1.0805	-0.11	4.37
USD/JPY	149.40	-0.37	-4.74
GBP/USD	1.2914	-0.03	3.22

Commodities	Last	%1D	%YTD
Gold	3,132.5900	0.31	19.47
Silver	33.9387	-0.39	17.54
Crude Oil	71.9600	0.67	0.35

EUR/USD intraday : the downside prevails as long as 1.0814 is resistance

Our pivot point is at 1.0814.

Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 1.0814 is resistance

Alternative scenario: above 1.0814, look for 1.0843 and 1.0860.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.0795 and 1.0808).