Sunday, October 19, 2025
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Market Comment
Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Thursday, the major U.S. indices finished lower amid concerns over the health of regional banks.

The S&P 500 slipped 41 points (-0.63%) to 6,629, the Nasdaq 100 fell 88 points (-0.36%) to 24,657, and the Dow dropped 301 points (-0.65%) to 45,952.

All sectors finished in the red, except for the Technology (XLK) sector. The biggest underperformers were Financials (XLF), Energy (XLE), and Utilities (XLU).

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index slid to -12.8 in October, against the expected 4.

In equity news, Zions Bancorporation (ZION) tanked 13.14%, and Western Alliance (WAL) sank 10.81% after Zions unveiled a 50 million dollars charge-off related to commercial loans.

JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) soared 22.14%, topping the S&P 500 after posting strong quarterly earnings.

Salesforce.com (CRM) gained 3.98% as the company expects sales of over 60 billion dollars by 2030, beating expectations.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) dropped 10.14% as fiscal 2026 financial figures guidance disappointed investors.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) fell 1.60% despite lifting its annual revenue expectation. Peer Micron Technology (MU) also rose 5.52% as it was maintained at Buy by Citigroup.

The U.S. 10-year yield declined 5.7 basis points to 3.971%.

In Europe, France's Cac 40 gained 1.38% after the French government survived a no-confidence vote. Germany's Dax rose 0.38% and the U.K. FTSE 100 was up 0.12%.

In the commodities market, Gold rose 108 dollars (+2.58%) to 4,316 dollars, reaching an all-time high. WTI Crude Oil futures slipped 0.81 dollars (-1.39%) to 57.46 dollars, marking a third straight session of declines. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a build of 3.5 million barrels in crude inventories last week, compared with an expected increase of 0.1 million barrels.


Market Wrap: Forex

The dollar index fell 0.46% to 98.33.

EUR/USD rose 44 pips (+0.38%) to 1.1690, posting a 3-day rebound.

GBP/USD advanced 32 pips (+0.24%) to 1.3433. The U.K. gross domestic product grew 0.1% month-on-month in August as expected.

USD/JPY declined 67 pips (-0.44%) to 150.37 and USD/CHF slipped 40 pips (-0.50%) to 0.7926, both down for a third straight session.

AUD/USD dropped 27 pips (-0.41%) to 0.6483. Australia's jobless rate climbed to 4.5% in September, the highest level in nearly 4 years and above the estimated 4.3%.

USD/CAD advanced 6 pips (+0.04%) to 1.4048.

In the cryptocurrencies market, Bitcoin fell 2.69% to 108,206 dollars, and Ethereum dropped 2.40% to 3,869 dollars.


Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, EUR/USD advanced to 1.1705 and GBP/USD climbed to 1.3442.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY fell to 150.16.

Gold rose to 4,330 dollars.

Bitcoin remained under pressure at 108,440 dollars.


Expected Today

No major economic data expected.
Forex Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1.1714 0.23 13.15
USD/JPY 149.92 -0.33 -4.41
GBP/USD 1.3453 0.17 7.53
Commodities Last %1D %YTD
Gold 4,359.9210 0.80 66.17
Silver 54.4264 0.37 88.50
Crude Oil 57.3000 -0.28 -20.09
EUR/USD intraday : the downside prevails as long as 1.1689 is resistance Next
Our pivot point is at 1.1689.

Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 1.1689 is resistance

Alternative scenario: above 1.1689, look for 1.1721 and 1.1740.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.1671 and 1.1690). Finally, the EUR/USD is trading below its lower Bollinger band (standing at 1.1656).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
EUR/JPY intraday : the upside prevails as long as 175.26 is support Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 175.26.

Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 175.26 is support

Alternative scenario: below 175.26, expect 174.87 and 174.64.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 175.49 and 175.58).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/USD intraday : Rebound Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 1.3390.

Our preference: Rebound

Alternative scenario: below 1.3390, expect 1.3350 and 1.3327.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and negative. The MACD must break above its zero level to trigger further gains. Moreover, the price stands above its 20 period moving average (1.3420) but below its 50 period moving average (1.3433).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/JPY intraday : the upside prevails as long as 201.77 is support Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 201.77.

Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 201.77 is support

Alternative scenario: below 201.77, expect 201.32 and 201.05.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 201.72 and 201.74).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/JPY intraday : the upside prevails as long as 150.04 is support Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 150.04.

Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 150.04 is support

Alternative scenario: below 150.04, expect 149.40 and 149.03.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 150.42 and 150.19).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/CAD intraday : the downside prevails as long as 1.4040 is resistance Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 1.4040.

Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 1.4040 is resistance

Alternative scenario: above 1.4040, look for 1.4061 and 1.4073.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.4033 and 1.4041).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Crude Oil (WTI) (X5) Intraday: turning up. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 57.10

Our preference: long positions above 57.10 with targets at 58.20 & 58.65 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 57.10 look for further downside with 56.55 & 56.15 as targets.

Comment: the next resistances are at 58.20 and then at 58.65.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Brent (ICE) (Z5) Intraday: key resistance at 61.30. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 61.30

Our preference: short positions below 61.30 with targets at 60.20 & 59.75 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 61.30 look for further upside with 61.80 & 62.25 as targets.

Comment: even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Dow Jones (CME) (Z5) Intraday: intraday support around 46135.00. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 46135.00

Our preference: long positions above 46135.00 with targets at 46700.00 & 46910.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 46135.00 look for further downside with 45980.00 & 45605.00 as targets.

Comment: the next resistances are at 46700.00 and then at 46910.00.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Gold Intraday: under pressure. Previous 
Pivot: 4280.00

Our preference: short positions below 4280.00 with targets at 4180.00 & 4145.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 4280.00 look for further upside with 4305.00 & 4350.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50%

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

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