Monday, January 12, 2026
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Market Comment
Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Friday, U.S. stocks gained momentum, allowing both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones to mark record closes for the second time within the week.

Dow Jones +237 points (+0.48%) to 49,504
S&P 500 +44 points (+0.65%) to 6,966
Nasdaq 100 +259 points (+1.02%) to 25,766

The closely-watched U.S. official jobs report showed an addition of 50,000 non-farm payrolls in December, fewer than expected, with the jobless rate dipping to 4.4%.

Alphabet (GOOGL) +0.96%, posting a three-session rally. The stock once touched an all-time high of 330.83 dollars during the session, with its market capitalization nearing 4 trillion dollars.

Most semiconductor stocks posted gains:
Intel (INTC) +10.80%
Micron (MU) +5.53%
Broadcom (AVGO) +3.76%
Nvidia (NVDA) -0.10%
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) -0.74%

Oklo (OKLO) and Vistra (VST), both nuclear power companies, jumped after revealing projects signed with Meta (META):
Oklo (OKLO) +7.91%
Vistra (VST) +10.48%
Meta (META) +1.08%

Southwest Airlines (LUV) +3.70% after being upgraded to "overweight" by JPMorgan.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield +0.2 basis point to 4.169%.

European stocks closed higher:
DAX 40 +0.53%
CAC 40 +1.44%
FTSE 100 +0.80%

Gold price +31 dollars to 4,509 dollars an ounce, not far away from its all-time high of 4,550 dollars.

U.S. WTI crude futures +1.36 dollar (+2.35%) to 59.12 dollars a barrel.

Oil prices were boosted by concerns over the situation in oil-producing Iran, which saw wide-spreading protests throughout the country.


Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar strengthened further against other major currencies, with the dollar index climbing to 99.13.

EUR/USD -26 pips to 1.1632. Germany’s industrial production +0.8% month on month in November (vs -0.4% expected).

USD/JPY +103 pips to 157.90. The yen weakened on a news report that Japan's prime minister may call for a snap election for parliament's lower house in February.

GBP/USD -36 pips to 1.3400, AUD/USD -10 pips to 0.6687.

USD/CHF +18 pips to 0.8007, USD/CAD +46 pips to 1.3907.

Over the weekend, Bitcoin managed to stay above 90,000 dollars.


Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, the dollar index retreated to levels around 99.00. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell confirmed that the Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation into him, serving grand jury subpoenas and threatening an indictment related to his testimony about renovations to Federal Reserve buildings.

EUR/USD bounced to 1.1658 and GBP/USD climbed to 1.3425.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY held gains at 157.97.

Gold advanced to a fresh record high at 4,579 dollars.

Bitcoin rose to 92,101 dollars.


Expected Today

No major economic data expected.
Forex Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1.1653 0.14 -0.92
USD/JPY 158.12 0.15 0.79
GBP/USD 1.3415 0.12 -0.55
Commodities Last %1D %YTD
Gold 4,566.0352 1.25 4.54
Silver 83.3284 4.22 12.20
Crude Oil 59.1800 0.10 2.37
EUR/USD Intraday: the upside prevails. Next
Pivot: 1.1645

Our preference: long positions above 1.1645 with targets at 1.1680 & 1.1700 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.1645 look for further downside with 1.1620 & 1.1605 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
EUR/JPY intraday : the RSI is overbought Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 183.99.

Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 183.99 is support

Alternative scenario: below 183.99, expect 183.64 and 183.43.

Comment: the RSI is above 70. It could mean either that the price is in a lasting uptrend or just overbought and therefore bound to correct (look for bearish divergence in this case). The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 183.96 and 183.73).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/USD Intraday: rebound. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.3400

Our preference: long positions above 1.3400 with targets at 1.3450 & 1.3470 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.3400 look for further downside with 1.3380 & 1.3360 as targets.

Comment: the RSI calls for a rebound.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/JPY intraday : the RSI is overbought Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 211.87.

Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 211.87 is support

Alternative scenario: below 211.87, expect 211.46 and 211.22.

Comment: the RSI is above 70. It could mean either that the price is in a lasting uptrend or just overbought and therefore bound to correct (look for bearish divergence in this case). The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 211.90 and 211.69).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/JPY Intraday: caution. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 158.20

Our preference: short positions below 158.20 with targets at 157.35 & 157.05 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 158.20 look for further upside with 158.45 & 158.70 as targets.

Comment: intraday technical indicators are mixed and call for caution.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/CAD Intraday: under pressure. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.3920

Our preference: short positions below 1.3920 with targets at 1.3870 & 1.3850 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.3920 look for further upside with 1.3940 & 1.3960 as targets.

Comment: as long as 1.3920 is resistance, expect a return to 1.3870.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Crude Oil (WTI) (H6) Intraday: intraday support around 58.55. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 58.55

Our preference: long positions above 58.55 with targets at 59.60 & 60.10 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 58.55 look for further downside with 57.90 & 57.50 as targets.

Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Brent (ICE) (H6) Intraday: bullish bias above 62.90. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 62.90

Our preference: long positions above 62.90 with targets at 64.00 & 64.40 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 62.90 look for further downside with 62.25 & 61.85 as targets.

Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Dow Jones (CME) (H6) Intraday: target 49195. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 49820

Our preference: short positions below 49820 with targets at 49340 & 49195 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 49820 look for further upside with 50050 & 50220 as targets.

Comment: technically the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Gold Intraday: further advance. Previous 
Pivot: 4545

Our preference: long positions above 4545 with targets at 4630 & 4650 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 4545 look for further downside with 4520 & 4500 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

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