Sunday, October 18, 2026
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Market Comment
On Thursday, the Dow Jones jumped 556 points (+1.08%) to 52,177, and the S&P 500 rose 25 points (+0.33%) to 7,744. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 pared most of its early loss to close just 15 points lower (-0.05%) at 29,935.

U.S. data showed that producer price inflation accelerated to 6.3% year-on-year and 1.3% month-on-month in September, both exceeding expectations and reaching the highest levels since 2022.

However, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield dropped 11.5 basis points to 5.079% on signs that investors bought government bonds on the dip.

The Dow Jones was lifted by healthcare, consumer, and industrial stocks, with UnitedHealth Group (UNH) rising 2.74%, Eli Lilly (LLY) up 3.37%, Nike (NKE) up 5.27%, Home Depot (HD) up 4.33%, and Sherwin-Williams (SHW) up 3.84%.

Microsoft (MSFT) gained 1.08%, while Tesla (TSLA) slipped 1.29%, posting a fourth consecutive session of declines.

Semiconductor stocks closed mixed, with Nvidia (NVDA) losing 1.91%, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) down 1.49%, and Intel (INTC) down 2.85%, while Micron Technology (MU) rebounded 1.90%, Qualcomm (QCOM) rose 3.31%, and Arm Holdings (ARM) gained 2.82%.

Regarding artificial-intelligence (AI) infrastructure stocks, CoreWeave (CRWV) rebounded 5.91%, Oracle (ORCL) rose 2.94%, and Nebius Group (NBIS) was up 1.26%, while Dell Technologies (DELL) fell a further 6.85%, extending its decline to a fourth straight session.

Most software stocks performed well, with ServiceNow (NOW) jumping 6.15%, Salesforce (CRM) up 4.51%, and Intuit (INTU) up 6.34%.

Penske Automotive Group (PAG) surged 8.84% after Motown Acquisition Corp agreed to take the company private at 212 dollars a share in cash, valuing the auto retailer at 16.3 billion dollars.

International Paper (IP) bounced 6.90% after reports that private equity firms Lone Star and Atlas Holdings are exploring separate bids for its European packaging business, potentially valued at less than 6 billion dollars.

European stocks closed higher earlier, with the DAX 40 adding 0.33%, the CAC 40 up 0.78%, and the FTSE 100 up 1.08%.

U.S. WTI crude futures advanced 2.88 dollars (+3.03%) to 97.97 dollars a barrel, extending their rally to a sixth session.

Spot gold rebounded 66 dollars (+1.60%) to 4,171 dollars an ounce, halting a three-session decline.


Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar retreated Thursday despite hotter-than-expected producer price inflation data, with EUR/USD rebounding 62 pips to 1.1218 and USD/JPY falling 32 pips to 157.97.

U.S. retail sales grew 0.8% month-on-month in September, more than expected.

GBP/USD climbed 81 pips to 1.3273. U.K. data showed that gross domestic product increased 0.1% month-on-month in August, in contrast to an expected decline of 0.1%. Industrial production grew 0.8% month-on-month in August, much better than expected.

AUD/USD fell 50 pips to 0.6920.

USD/CHF declined 83 pips to 0.8266, and USD/CAD eased 52 pips to 1.4184.

Bitcoin briefly dipped below 80,000 dollars during the session before swiftly rebounding to 82,000 dollars.


Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, EUR/USD and GBP/USD were both steady, at 1.1215 and 1.3277 respectively.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY was little changed at 158.00.

Gold eased to 4,156 dollars.

Bitcoin was stable at 82,064 dollars.


Expected Today

The eurozone's trade surplus is anticipated at 14.7 billion euros in August.

In the U.S., industrial production is projected to grow 0.4% month-on-month in September.
Forex Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1.1225 0.06 -4.43
USD/JPY 158.01 -0.19 1.06
GBP/USD 1.3238 0.36 -2.09
Commodities Last %1D %YTD
Gold 4,175.4200 0.12 -3.21
Silver 56.0200 0.69 -21.92
Crude Oil 97.4400 -0.54 69.70
EUR/USD intraday : 1.1273 in sight Next
Our pivot point is at 1.1219.

Our preference: The upside prevails as long as 1.1219 is support, with 1.1273 and 1.1285 as targets

Alternative scenario: below 1.1219, expect 1.1199 and 1.1186.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The price is below its 20 period moving average (1.1244) but above its 50 period moving average (1.1231).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
EUR/JPY intraday : First target, continuation or consolidation? Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 176.50.

Our preference: The upside prevails as long as 176.50 is support, with 177.96 and 178.34 as targets

Alternative scenario: below 176.50, expect 175.87 and 175.49.

Comment: Prices are now close to our first target. Reaching this level could trigger a throwback. Conversely, a clear break above it could help drive the asset price higher.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/USD intraday : Pivot threshold in sight Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 1.3341.

Our preference: In spite of the current rebound, our pivot threshold at 1.3341 has not been hit and our target remains 1.3268

Alternative scenario: above 1.3341, look for 1.3367 and 1.3383.

Comment: Price is close to our pivot level; this could be the last opportunity for a reversal.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/JPY intraday : Towards 211.48 Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 210.13.

Our preference: The upside prevails as long as 210.13 is support, with 211.48 and 211.85 as targets

Alternative scenario: below 210.13, expect 209.51 and 209.14.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and positive. The price is below its 20 period moving average (210.67) but above its 50 period moving average (210.25).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/JPY intraday : Expect 157.58 Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 158.59.

Our preference: Under pressure below 158.59, with 157.58 and 157.34 as targets

Alternative scenario: above 158.59, look for 158.99 and 159.23.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 157.99 and 158.00).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/CAD intraday : Expect 1.4108 Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 1.4167.

Our preference: The downside prevails as long as 1.4167 is resistance, with 1.4108 and 1.4094 as targets

Alternative scenario: above 1.4167, look for 1.4191 and 1.4205.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and negative. The price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.4154 and 1.4172).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Crude Oil (WTI) (Z6) intraday: further advance. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 96.70

Our preference: long positions above 96.70 with targets at 100.00 & 102.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 96.70 look for further downside with 94.70 & 93.60 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Brent (ICE) (Z6) intraday: further upside. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 107.00

Our preference: long positions above 107.00 with targets at 111.00 & 113.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 107.00 look for further downside with 105.00 & 103.40 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Dow Jones (CME) (Z6) intraday: the downside prevails. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 52530

Our preference: short positions below 52530 with targets at 51900 & 51600 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 52530 look for further upside with 52820 & 53100 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bearish.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Gold intraday : Target level as a potential turning point Previous 
Our pivot point is at 4,110.

Our preference: The upside prevails as long as 4,110 is support, with 4,195 and 4,217 as targets

Alternative scenario: below 4,110, expect 4,073 and 4,051.

Comment: With prices now approaching our initial target, this level may prompt a throwback. That said, a decisive break above it could also act as a catalyst for further upside.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

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