Monday, January 5, 2026
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Market Comment
Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Thursday (January 1), U.S. markets were closed for the New Year Day holiday.

On Wednesday, the last trading day of 2025, U.S. stocks extended its decline to a fourth session:
S&P 500 -50 points (-0.74%) to 6,845
Nasdaq 100 -212 points (-0.84%) to 25,249
Dow Jones -303 points (-0.63%) to 48,063

Concluding the whole year, the three major stock indexes posted gains for a third consecutive year:
S&P 500 +16.39%
Nasdaq 100 +20.17%
Dow Jones +12.97%

Nike (NKE) rose 4.12% on Wednesday, becoming the best-performing stock in the S&P 500. The company’s chief executive bought about one million dollars worth of shares.

Fair Isaac (FICO), a data analytics company, fell 3.16%, becoming the biggest laggard in the S&P 500.

Micron (MU) dropped a further 2.47%, Intel (INTC) lost 1.07%, and Palantir (PLTR) was down 1.71%.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rebounded a further 3.7 basis points to 4.163%.

In Europe, Germany's market was closed on Wednesday, while
CAC 40 -18 points (-0.23%) to 8,149
FTSE 100 -9 points (-0.09%) to 9,931.

Gold price remained under pressure at 4,319 dollars after a 4% pull-back on Monday.

U.S. WTI crude futures dipped 53 cents to 57.42 dollars a barrel.

U.S. data showed a reduction of 1.9 million barrels in crude-oil stockpiles, a much bigger reduction than expected. However, gasoline stockpiles added 5.8 million barrels, much more than expected.


Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar kept rebounding, with the dollar index climbing to 98.28.

The U.S. Labor Department reported that weekly initial jobless claims fell to 199,000, the lowest level in a month.

EUR/USD dipped to 1.1746.

USD/JPY +28 pips to 156.67.

GBP/USD +9 pips to 1.3475.

AUD/USD -23 pips to 0.6671.

USD/CHF +6 pips to 0.7920.

USD/CAD +26 pips to 1.3722.

Bitcoin climbed back to levels above 88,000 dollars.


Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, EUR/USD advanced to 1.1760 and GBP/USD climbed to 1.3490.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY was steady at 156.68.

Gold bounced to 4,365 dollars.

Bitcoin was stable at 88,704 dollars.


Expected Today

No major economic data expected.
Forex Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1.1738 -0.06 0.00
USD/JPY 156.84 0.11 0.01
GBP/USD 1.3459 -0.10 -0.01
Commodities Last %1D %YTD
Gold 4,376.9717 1.46 0.00
Silver 73.8903 3.69 0.00
Crude Oil 57.9100 0.85 -19.24
EUR/USD Intraday: the downside prevails. Next
Pivot: 1.1735

Our preference: short positions below 1.1735 with targets at 1.1700 & 1.1680 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.1735 look for further upside with 1.1750 & 1.1765 as targets.

Comment: a break below 1.1700 would trigger a drop towards 1.1680.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
EUR/JPY intraday : the downside prevails as long as 184.10 is resistance Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 184.10.

Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 184.10 is resistance

Alternative scenario: above 184.10, look for 184.46 and 184.67.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 183.91 and 184.06). Finally, the EUR/JPY is trading below its lower Bollinger band (standing at 183.79).
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/USD Intraday: under pressure. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.3485

Our preference: short positions below 1.3485 with targets at 1.3420 & 1.3395 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.3485 look for further upside with 1.3505 & 1.3525 as targets.

Comment: as long as the resistance at 1.3485 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.3420 remains high.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/JPY intraday : the downside prevails as long as 211.33 is resistance Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 211.33.

Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 211.33 is resistance

Alternative scenario: above 211.33, look for 211.75 and 212.01.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 211.12 and 211.16).
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/JPY Intraday: bullish bias above 156.50. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 156.50

Our preference: long positions above 156.50 with targets at 157.00 & 157.20 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 156.50 look for further downside with 156.25 & 156.00 as targets.

Comment: a support base at 156.50 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/CAD Intraday: the bias remains bullish. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.3715

Our preference: long positions above 1.3715 with targets at 1.3750 & 1.3765 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.3715 look for further downside with 1.3700 & 1.3685 as targets.

Comment: a support base at 1.3715 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Crude Oil (WTI) (G6) Intraday: choppy. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 57.50

Our preference: short positions below 57.50 with targets at 56.60 & 56.30 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 57.50 look for further upside with 57.90 & 58.20 as targets.

Comment: as long as 57.50 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Brent (ICE) (H6) Intraday: key resistance at 61.00. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 61.00

Our preference: short positions below 61.00 with targets at 60.00 & 59.70 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 61.00 look for further upside with 61.40 & 61.85 as targets.

Comment: as long as the resistance at 61.00 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 60.00 remains high.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Dow Jones (CME) (H6) Intraday: the upside prevails. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 48425

Our preference: long positions above 48425 with targets at 48770 & 48890 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 48425 look for further downside with 48315 & 48090 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Gold Intraday: rebound. Previous 
Pivot: 4310

Our preference: long positions above 4310 with targets at 4402 & 4435 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 4310 look for further downside with 4274 & 4240 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

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