Wednesday, December 31, 2025
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Market Comment
Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Tuesday, the U.S. stock market continued its downward trend ahead of the new calendar year, marking a third consecutive session of declines.

The S&P 500 fell by 9 points (-0.14%) to 6,896, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 63 points (-0.25%) to 25,462, and the Dow decreased by 94 points (-0.20%) to 48,367.

Among sectors, Energy (XLE), Communication Services (XLC), and Utilities (XLU) performed well, while Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Technology (XLK), and Industrials (XLI) saw the steepest declines.

The latest FOMC Minutes revealed growing divisions within the Fed. Some officials opposed the recent rate cut, while one official voted for a more significant reduction during the last meeting. The FedWatch CME Tool indicates an 84.5% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged at the upcoming meeting on January 28th.

On another note, the Chicago PMI rose to 43.5 in December, above the 39.0 expected.

Intel (INTC) rose 1.69% after Nvidia (NVDA) officially closed its 5 billion dollar investment in Intel. Nvidia fell 0.36% during the trading session.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) fell for a third straight session, down 1.81%.

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) added 2.60% as the energy sector outperformed.

Molina Healthcare (MOH) gained 2.47% as renowned investor Michael Burry shared positive insights on the health insurer, comparing buying it now to Warren Buffett buying GEICO in 1976.

The U.S. 10-year yield climbed to 4.124%.

In the commodities market, gold added 15 dollars (+0.35%) to 4,346 dollars, and WTI crude oil futures retreated 0.13 dollars (-0.22%) to 57.95 dollars.

In Europe, Germany's Dax rose 0.57%, France's Cac 40 gained 0.69% and the U.K. FTSE 100 climbed 0.75%.


Market Wrap: Forex

The dollar index rose 0.18% to 98.21.

EUR/USD declined 27 pips (-0.23%) to 1.1745 and GBP/USD slipped 42 pips (-0.31%) to 1.3466.

USD/JPY rose 39 pips (+0.25%) to 156.43 and USD/CHF climbed 31 pips (+0.39%) to 0.7919.

AUD/USD was relatively flat at 0.6693, while USD/CAD advanced 3 pips (+0.02%) to 1.3693.

Gold added 15 dollars (+0.35%) to 4,346 dollars.

In the cryptocurrencies market, Bitcoin rose 834 dollars (+0.96%) to 88,073 dollars, and Ethereum gained 27 dollars (+0.92%) to 2,961 dollars.


Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, EUR/USD and GBP/USD both remained subdued, at 1.1741 and 1.3461 respectively.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY held gains at 156.48.

Gold climbed to 4,354 dollars.

Bitcoin was steady at 88,535 dollars.


Expected Today

In the U.S., weekly initial jobless claims are estimated at 222,000.
Forex Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1.1738 -0.07 13.46
USD/JPY 156.59 0.13 -0.50
GBP/USD 1.3457 -0.07 7.63
Commodities Last %1D %YTD
Gold 4,318.0000 -0.65 65.64
Silver 71.4547 -6.55 164.81
Crude Oil 57.9000 -0.09 -19.26
EUR/USD intraday : Rebound Next
Our pivot point is at 1.1714.

Our preference: Rebound

Alternative scenario: below 1.1714, expect 1.1682 and 1.1664.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and negative. The MACD must break above its zero level to trigger further gains. Moreover, the price stands above its 20 period moving average (1.1739) but below its 50 period moving average (1.1744).
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
EUR/JPY intraday : the downside prevails as long as 184.03 is resistance Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 184.03.

Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 184.03 is resistance

Alternative scenario: above 184.03, look for 184.39 and 184.60.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 183.74 and 183.73).
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/USD intraday : Rebound Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 1.3425.

Our preference: Rebound

Alternative scenario: below 1.3425, expect 1.3395 and 1.3377.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and negative. The MACD must break above its zero level to trigger further gains. Moreover, the price stands above its 20 period moving average (1.3447) but below its 50 period moving average (1.3458).
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/JPY intraday : the downside prevails as long as 210.76 is resistance Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 210.76.

Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 210.76 is resistance

Alternative scenario: above 210.76, look for 211.19 and 211.44.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 210.64 and 210.64).
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/JPY intraday : the upside prevails as long as 156.27 is support Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 156.27.

Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 156.27 is support

Alternative scenario: below 156.27, expect 155.78 and 155.50.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 156.69 and 156.54).
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/CAD intraday : the upside prevails as long as 1.3689 is support Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 1.3689.

Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 1.3689 is support

Alternative scenario: below 1.3689, expect 1.3669 and 1.3657.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.3704 and 1.3698).
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Crude Oil (WTI) (G6) Intraday: intraday support around 57.70. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 57.70

Our preference: long positions above 57.70 with targets at 58.45 & 58.90 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 57.70 look for further downside with 57.50 & 57.05 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50% but reversing up.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Brent (ICE) (H6) Intraday: further advance. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 61.05

Our preference: long positions above 61.05 with targets at 61.90 & 62.25 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 61.05 look for further downside with 60.80 & 60.60 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Dow Jones (CME) (H6) Intraday: aim @ 48375. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 48675

Our preference: short positions below 48675 with targets at 48375 & 48260 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 48675 look for further upside with 48770 & 48845 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50%

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Gold Intraday: key resistance at 4372. Previous 
Pivot: 4372

Our preference: short positions below 4372 with targets at 4274 & 4235 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 4372 look for further upside with 4405 & 4440 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50%

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

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