Thursday, November 21, 2024
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Market Comment
Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 139 points higher (+0.32%) at 43,408, ending a four-session decline. The S&P 500 held steady at 5,917, while the Nasdaq 100 slipped 17 points (-0.08%) to 20,667.

Healthcare and energy stock sectors outperformed the market, while consumer staples, consumer discretionary and financial sectors were under pressure.

Target (TGT) plunged 21.97%. The retail giant gave a lower-than-expected quarterly result guidance.

Keysight Technologies (KEYS) surged 8.78%, becoming the top performer in the S&P 500. The provider of communications solutions reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings.

Meanwhile, Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) climbed 4.74%, while Qualcomm (QCOM) fell 6.34%.

Bitcoin-related stocks Microstrategy (MSTR) and Mara Holdings (MARA) jumped 10.05% and 13.95% respectively as bitcoin price kept breaking records.

Nvidia (NVDA) closed 0.80% lower. However, the maker of artificial intelligence chips fell a further 2% in after-market hours though its third-quarter results exceeded market expectations. The company also provided a higher-than-expected revenue forecast for the fourth quarter.

The 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield rebounded 3 basis points to 4.406%.

European stocks stayed under pressure, with the DAX 40 falling 0.29%, the CAC 40 down 0.43%, and the FTSE 100 down 0.17%.

U.S. WTI crude-oil futures retreated $0.49 to $68.75 a barrel. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported an addition of 545,000 barrels in crude-oil stockpiles (vs +400,000 barrels expected).

Gold price rose $18 to $2,650 an ounce, posting a three-session rally.


Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. Dollar was firm against other major currencies, with the dollar index rising to 106.66.

EUR/USD fell 56 pips to 1.0539. Germany's producer prices fell 1.1% year on year in October (vs -0.9% expected, -1.4% in September).

GBP/USD dropped 37 pips to 1.2645. U.K. inflation rate picked up to 2.3% year on year in October (vs 2.1% expected, 1.7% in September).

USD/JPY rose 76 pips to 155.41.

AUD/USD fell 30 pips to 0.6501.

USD/CHF gained 18 pips to 0.8840, USD/CAD rose 27 pips to 1.3980.

Bitcoin continued its record-breaking streak, chalking an all-time-high of $94,989 during the session.


Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, EUR/USD edged up to 1.0548 and GBP/USD rebounded to 1.2655.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY retreated to 155.05.

Gold climbed further to $2,657.

Bitcoin was steady at $94,270.


Expected Today

The eurozone's consumer confidence index is anticipated to slip to -13.0 in November.

France's business confidence index is expected to be unchanged at 92 in November.

In the U.S., weekly initial jobless claims are estimated at 224,000, while Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index is anticipated to climb to 11.0 in November. Also, existing home sales are estimated to be up 0.8% month-on-month in October, while the leading index is expected to drop 0.1%.

Canada's producer prices index is expected to be up 0.1% year-on-year in October.
Forex Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1.0549 0.06 -4.41
USD/JPY 155.02 -0.26 9.90
GBP/USD 1.2652 0.02 -0.60
Commodities Last %1D %YTD
Gold 2,657.8900 0.30 28.86
Silver 31.1400 0.90 31.06
Crude Oil 68.9400 0.28 -3.86
EUR/USD Intraday: under pressure. Next
Pivot: 1.0570

Our preference: short positions below 1.0570 with targets at 1.0520 & 1.0495 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.0570 look for further upside with 1.0590 & 1.0610 as targets.

Comment: as long as 1.0570 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
EUR/JPY intraday: the RSI is oversold Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 162.87.

Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 162.87 is resistance.

Alternative scenario: above 162.87, look for 163.54 and 163.93.

Comment: the RSI is below 30. It could either mean that the pair is in a lasting downtrend or just oversold and therefore bound to retrace (look for bullish divergence in this case). The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price is trading under both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 163.27 and 163.66). Finally, the EUR/JPY has penetrated its lower Bollinger band (162.40).
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/USD Intraday: under pressure. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.2670

Our preference: short positions below 1.2670 with targets at 1.2620 & 1.2594 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.2670 look for further upside with 1.2695 & 1.2715 as targets.

Comment: as long as 1.2670 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/JPY intraday: the RSI is oversold Previous  | Next
Our pivot point stands at 195.66.

Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 195.66 is resistance.

Alternative scenario: above 195.66, look for 196.68 and 197.29.

Comment: the RSI is below 30. It could either mean that the pair is in a lasting downtrend or just oversold and therefore bound to retrace (look for bullish divergence in this case). The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 195.89 and 196.42). Finally, the GBP/JPY has penetrated its lower Bollinger band (194.89).
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/JPY Intraday: under pressure. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 155.25

Our preference: short positions below 155.25 with targets at 153.90 & 153.30 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 155.25 look for further upside with 155.90 & 156.40 as targets.

Comment: as long as 155.25 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/CAD Intraday: the downside prevails. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.3990

Our preference: short positions below 1.3990 with targets at 1.3948 & 1.3910 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.3990 look for further upside with 1.4015 & 1.4035 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50%.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Crude Oil (WTI) (F5) Intraday: rebound. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 68.85

Our preference: long positions above 68.85 with targets at 69.90 & 70.30 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 68.85 look for further downside with 68.50 & 68.20 as targets.

Comment: the RSI advocates for further advance.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Brent (ICE) (F5) Intraday: bullish bias above 72.90. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 72.90

Our preference: long positions above 72.90 with targets at 73.90 & 74.25 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 72.90 look for further downside with 72.60 & 72.20 as targets.

Comment: the RSI calls for a rebound.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Dow Jones (CME) (Z4) Intraday: choppy. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 43370.00

Our preference: long positions above 43370.00 with targets at 43620.00 & 43770.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 43370.00 look for further downside with 43240.00 & 43110.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI lacks momentum.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Gold Intraday: further advance. Previous 
Pivot: 2645.00

Our preference: long positions above 2645.00 with targets at 2675.00 & 2685.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 2645.00 look for further downside with 2635.00 & 2627.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

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