Tuesday, November 4, 2025
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Market Comment
Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Monday, the S&P 500 added 11 points (+0.17%) to 6,851, and the Nasdaq 100 rose 114 points (+0.44%) to 25,972.

However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 226 points (-0.48%) to 47,336.

Amazon (AMZN) advanced a further 4.00% to mark a record-high closing level. The tech giant signed a 38-billion-dollar deal with OpenAI, allowing it to scale its artificial intelligence workloads on Amazon Web Services' cloud infrastructure.

Major semiconductor stocks performed well, with Nvidia (NVDA) rising 2.17%, Micron Technology (MU) up 4.88%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) up 1.38%.

IREN Ltd (IREN) surged 11.52% after announcing a 9.7-billion-dollar deal on providing cloud services to Microsoft (MSFT).

Peer Cipher Mining (CIFR) soared 22.04%.

On the other hand, UnitedHealth Group (UNH) fell 2.27% and Merck (MRK) was down 4.06%, dragging the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury climbed 2.7 basis points to 4.108%.

In Europe, the DAX 40 rebounded 0.73%, while the CAC 40 fell 0.14%, and the FTSE 100 was down 0.16%.

Gold price kept trading on and off the key level of 4,000 dollars an ounce.

U.S. WTI crude futures edged up 7 cents to 61.05 dollars a barrel, posting a four-session winning streak.


Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar stayed very firm as traders were not sure if the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates again by the year’s end. The dollar index advanced to 99.87.

EUR/USD fell 19 pips to a three-month low of 1.1515.

USD/JPY rose 20 pips to 154.20.

GBP/USD dropped 17 pips to 1.3134.

AUD/USD was down 9 pips to 0.6534. Later today, Australia’s central bank is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 3.60%.

USD/CHF climbed 37 pips to 0.8079, and USD/CAD was up 44 pips to 1.4054.

Bitcoin tumbled over 4,000 dollars or 3% to 106,400 dollars.


Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, Australia's central bank decided to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 3.60% (as expected).

AUD/USD fell to 0.6525.

USD/JPY managed to stay above 154.00.

Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD lacked upward momentum, staying low at 1.1517 and 1.3132 respectively.

Gold price dipped below the 4,000-dollar mark.

Bitcoin traded higher to levels above 107,000 dollars.


Expected Today

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will speak.
Forex Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1.1521 0.03 11.25
USD/JPY 153.56 -0.42 -1.89
GBP/USD 1.3118 -0.15 5.01
Commodities Last %1D %YTD
Gold 3,976.8200 -0.61 52.50
Silver 47.6087 -0.96 66.48
Crude Oil 60.8300 -0.36 -15.17
EUR/USD intraday : rebound towards 1.1536 Next
Our pivot point is at 1.1451.

Our preference: rebound towards 1.1536

Alternative scenario: below 1.1451, expect 1.1420 and 1.1402.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and negative. The configuration is mixed. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.1487 and 1.1504).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
EUR/JPY intraday : rebound towards 177.15 Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 176.01.

Our preference: rebound towards 177.15

Alternative scenario: below 176.01, expect 175.61 and 175.37.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and negative. The configuration is mixed. Moreover, the price stands above its 20 period moving average (176.37) but below its 50 period moving average (176.93).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/USD intraday : the RSI is oversold Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 1.3044.

Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 1.3044 is resistance

Alternative scenario: above 1.3044, look for 1.3075 and 1.3093.

Comment: the RSI is below 30. It could either mean that the price is in a lasting downtrend or just oversold and therefore bound to retrace (look for bullish divergence in this case). The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.3044 and 1.3090).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/JPY intraday : rebound towards 201.08 Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 199.48.

Our preference: rebound towards 201.08

Alternative scenario: below 199.48, expect 198.93 and 198.60.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and negative. The configuration is mixed. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 200.26 and 201.33).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/JPY intraday : Rebound Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 153.12.

Our preference: Rebound

Alternative scenario: below 153.12, expect 152.46 and 152.06.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and negative. The MACD must break above its zero level to trigger further gains. Moreover, the price stands above its 20 period moving average (153.53) but below its 50 period moving average (153.80).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/CAD intraday : the RSI is overbought Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 1.4086.

Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 1.4086 is support

Alternative scenario: below 1.4086, expect 1.4067 and 1.4056.

Comment: the RSI is above 70. It could mean either that the price is in a lasting uptrend or just overbought and therefore bound to correct (look for bearish divergence in this case). The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.4086 and 1.4072).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Crude Oil (WTI) (Z5) Intraday: intraday support around 60.35. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 60.35

Our preference: long positions above 60.35 with targets at 61.00 & 61.20 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 60.35 look for further downside with 59.90 & 59.55 as targets.

Comment: the next resistances are at 61.00 and then at 61.20.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Brent (ICE) (F6) Intraday: under pressure. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 64.45

Our preference: short positions below 64.45 with targets at 63.80 & 63.40 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 64.45 look for further upside with 64.70 & 64.90 as targets.

Comment: even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Dow Jones (CME) (Z5) Intraday: intraday support around 47000.00. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 47000.00

Our preference: long positions above 47000.00 with targets at 47530.00 & 47680.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 47000.00 look for further downside with 46770.00 & 46530.00 as targets.

Comment: the next resistances are at 47530.00 and then at 47680.00.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Gold Intraday: the downside prevails. Previous 
Pivot: 4000.00

Our preference: short positions below 4000.00 with targets at 3943.00 & 3915.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 4000.00 look for further upside with 4028.00 & 4045.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50%

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

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