Sunday, December 21, 2025
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Market Comment
Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Thursday, U.S. technology stocks rebounded, with the Nasdaq 100 jumping 371 points (+1.51%) to 25,019.

The S&P 500 added 53 points (+0.79%) to 6,774, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 65 points (+0.14%) to 47,951.

Investors were relieved to see that U.S. consumer price inflation eased to 2.7% year on year in November, lower than expected.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield declined 2.9 basis points to 4.124%.

Micron Technology (MU) jumped 10.21%. The maker of artificial-intelligence-related (AI) memory chips reported better-than-expected quarterly revenue and earnings, and issued a strong result outlook.

Other tech stocks under the AI theme also rebounded, with Alphabet (GOOGL) gaining 1.93%, Nvidia (NVDA) up 1.79%, Palantir (PLTR) up 4.74%, and Meta (META) up 2.30%.

Also, Microsoft (MSFT) rose 1.65%, Amazon (AMZN) climbed 2.48%, and Tesla (TSLA) bounced 3.45%.

European stocks also closed higher, with the DAX 40 rising 0.28%, the CAC 40 up 0.80%, and the FTSE 100 up 0.65%.

Gold price ran up to 4,375 dollars an ounce before easing back to 4,333 dollars.

U.S. WTI crude futures settled 9 cents higher at 55.90 dollars a barrel.

U.S. envoys and a Russian delegation will have a meeting concerning the Russia-Ukraine war in Miami this weekend. U.S. President Donald Trump said he believes talks toward ending the war in Ukraine are "getting close to something".


Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar index edged up to 98.44.

EUR/USD declined 16 pips to 1.1723. As expected, the European Central Bank left its key interest unchanged.

GBP/USD was little changed at 1.3377. As expected, the Bank of England cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%.

USD/JPY retreated 8 pips to 155.59. Later today, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%.

AUD/USD added 8 pips to 0.6610.

USD/CHF slipped 16 pips to 0.7938, and USD/CAD dipped 4 pips to 1.3780.

Bitcoin failed to break above the level of 90,000 dollars, pulling back to 85,300 dollars.


Morning Trading

On Friday, in Asian trading hours, USD/JPY surpassed the level of 156.00.

As expected, the Bank of Japan raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995.

Also, Japan's core inflation rate held steady at 3.0% year on year in November.

EUR/USD was stable at 1.1724, and GBP/USD was buoyed at 1.3378.

AUD/USD was little changed at 0.6612.

Gold price eased to 4,320 dollars an ounce.

Bitcoin bounced back to 87,000 dollars.


Expected Today

U.S. existing home sales are expected to fall 4.8% month on month in November.

U.K. retail sales may grow 0.4% month on month in November.

Germany's producer prices are expected to drop 2.0% year on year in November.

France's producer prices may fall 3.5% year on year in November.
Forex Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1.1719 -0.02 13.21
USD/JPY 155.97 0.28 -1.04
GBP/USD 1.3376 -0.01 6.93
Commodities Last %1D %YTD
Gold 4,327.7100 -0.10 65.10
Silver 65.8100 0.59 126.59
Crude Oil 56.0200 -0.23 -21.88
EUR/USD intraday : the downside prevails as long as 1.1746 is resistance Next
Our pivot point is at 1.1746.

Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 1.1746 is resistance

Alternative scenario: above 1.1746, look for 1.1778 and 1.1797.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.1718 and 1.1719).
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
EUR/JPY intraday : the RSI is overbought Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 184.30.

Our preference: as long as 184.30 is support look for 185.46

Alternative scenario: below 184.30, expect 183.87 and 183.61.

Comment: the RSI is above 70. It could mean either that the price is in a lasting uptrend or just overbought and therefore bound to correct (look for bearish divergence in this case). The MACD is below its signal line and positive. The price could retrace. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 184.45 and 183.50).
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/USD intraday : as long as 1.3414 is resistance look for 1.3315 Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 1.3414.

Our preference: as long as 1.3414 is resistance look for 1.3315

Alternative scenario: above 1.3414, look for 1.3447 and 1.3466.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The break above the 50 area on the RSI should trigger further gains. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.3376 and 1.3378).
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/JPY intraday : the RSI is overbought Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 210.56.

Our preference: as long as 210.56 is support look for 211.75

Alternative scenario: below 210.56, expect 210.12 and 209.86.

Comment: the RSI is above 70. It could mean either that the price is in a lasting uptrend or just overbought and therefore bound to correct (look for bearish divergence in this case). The MACD is below its signal line and positive. The price could retrace. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 210.55 and 209.47).
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/JPY intraday : the RSI is overbought Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 157.22.

Our preference: as long as 157.22 is support look for 158.44

Alternative scenario: below 157.22, expect 156.81 and 156.56.

Comment: the RSI is above 70. It could mean either that the price is in a lasting uptrend or just overbought and therefore bound to correct (look for bearish divergence in this case). The MACD is below its signal line and positive. The price could retrace. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 157.42 and 156.62). Finally, the USD/JPY is trading above its upper Bollinger band (standing at 157.68).
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/CAD intraday : the upside prevails as long as 1.3774 is support Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 1.3774.

Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 1.3774 is support

Alternative scenario: below 1.3774, expect 1.3752 and 1.3738.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.3784 and 1.3784).
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Crude Oil (WTI) (G6) Intraday: bullish bias above 56.00. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 56.00

Our preference: long positions above 56.00 with targets at 56.75 & 57.20 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 56.00 look for further downside with 55.55 & 54.97 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Brent (ICE) (G6) Intraday: key resistance at 60.30. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 60.30

Our preference: short positions below 60.30 with targets at 59.30 & 58.75 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 60.30 look for further upside with 60.75 & 61.10 as targets.

Comment: even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Dow Jones (CME) (H6) Intraday: bullish bias above 48370. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 48370

Our preference: long positions above 48370 with targets at 48730 & 48920 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 48370 look for further downside with 48150 & 47900 as targets.

Comment: a support base at 48370 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Gold Intraday: further upside. Previous 
Pivot: 4307

Our preference: long positions above 4307 with targets at 4374 & 4400 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 4307 look for further downside with 4290 & 4270 as targets.

Comment: the RSI shows upside momentum.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

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