ICM Capital - Market Update

Thursday, February 19, 2026

marketupdate@ICMCapital.co.uk

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Market Comment

Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Wednesday, major U.S. stock indexes closed higher though gains were trimmed at close, with the S&P 500 adding 38 points (+0.56%) to 6,881, and the Nasdaq 100 up 197 points (+0.80%) to 24,898.

The Dow Jones climbed 129 points (+0.26%) to 49,662.

Minutes of the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting showed that central-bank officials were not in a hurry to cut interest rates considering potentially sticky inflation.

Amazon (AMZN) gained 1.81% after Morgan Stanley reaffirmed an "overweight" rating on the stock, which is also the firm’s "Top GenAI Pick".

Other tech giants also closed higher, with Nvidia (NVDA) gaining 1.63%, and Microsoft (MSFT) up 0.69%.

Western Digital (WDC) surged 4.38%. The data storage firm sold 3.2 billion dollars worth of shares in Sandisk (SNDK), which closed 1.66% higher.

Micron (MU) jumped 5.30%.

Palo Alto Networks (PANW) fell 6.82%. The cybersecurity firm lowered its full-year earnings guidance.

Energy stocks outperformed the market, boosted by rallying oil prices, with Exxon Mobil (XOM) rising 3.07%, Chevron (CVX) up 1.84%, and ConocoPhillips (COP) up 1.60%.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rebounded a further 2.1 basis points to 4.083%.

European stocks remained buoyed, with the DAX 40 rising 1.12%, the CAC 40 up 0.81%, and the FTSE 100 up 1.23%.

After declining for two sessions, gold rebounded 98 dollars (+2.00%) to 4,976 dollars an ounce.

U.S. WTI crude futures bounced 2.72 dollars (+4.36%) to 65.05 dollars a barrel. Oil prices were boosted by renewed geopolitical tensions, as talks between the U.S. and Iran, and between Russia and Ukraine, ended without a breakthrough.

Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar strengthened against other major currencies, with the dollar index rising to 97.72.

U.S. durable goods orders declined 1.4% month on month in December, and industrial production grew 0.7% month on month in January, both better than expected.

Also, U.S. housing starts increased 6.2% month on month in December, and building permits increased 4.3%, both exceeding expectations.

EUR/USD fell 67 pips to 1.1786.

USD/JPY jumped 153 pips to 154.81.

GBP/USD dropped 71 pips to 1.3496. The U.K. inflation rate slowed to 3.0% year on year in January from 3.4% in December.

AUD/USD slipped 44 pips to 0.7040.

USD/CHF advanced 29 pips to 0.7726, and USD/CAD was up 60 pips to 1.3695.

Bitcoin remained subdued, sliding nearly 2% to 66,200 dollars.

Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, USD/JPY remained firm, trading higher to 154.90. Japan's data showed that machinery orders jumped 19.1% month on month in December, much faster than expected.

AUD/USD bounced to 0.7070. In Australia, an addition of 50,500 people got full-time employment in January, much more than expected.

EUR/USD edged higher to 1.1791, while GBP/USD was little changed at 1.3492.

Gold dipped to 4,971 dollars.

Bitcoin was stable at 66,700 dollars.

Expected Today

U.S. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index is expected to fall to 7.0 in February.

U.S. trade deficit is expected to widen to 58.0 billion dollars in December.

Canada may record a higher trade deficit of 2.4 billion Canadian dollars in December.

Forex	Last	%1D	%YTD
EUR/USD	1.1796	0.12	0.32
USD/JPY	155.13	0.20	-1.17
GBP/USD	1.3495	0.03	0.13

Commodities	Last	%1D	%YTD
Gold	5,003.7400	0.50	15.41
Silver	78.3302	1.49	8.31
Crude Oil	65.3900	0.31	13.05

EUR/USD Intraday: key resistance at 1.1815.

Pivot: 1.1815

Our preference: short positions below 1.1815 with targets at 1.1780 & 1.1765 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.1815 look for further upside with 1.1840 & 1.1860 as targets.

Comment: the upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 1.1815.