Sunday, December 28, 2025
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Market Comment
Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Tuesday, the major indices in the U.S. rose for a fourth straight session. The S&P 500 advanced 31 points (+0.46%) to 6,909, while the Dow Jones gained 79 points (+0.16%) to 48,442, and the Nasdaq 100 rose 126 points (+0.50%) to 25,587.

On the sector front, the outperforming sectors were Energy (XLE), Communication Services (XLC), and Technology (XLK), while Consumer Staples (XLP), Health Care (XLV), and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) underperformed the most.

U.S. GDP growth for the third quarter was revised higher to 4.3% quarter-on-quarter, above the 3.2% expected, while durable goods orders fell by 2.2% month-on-month in October, compared with -0.9% estimated.

Mega-cap tech traded mostly higher, led by NVIDIA (NVDA) (+3.01%), which outperformed on continued AI momentum, while Amazon (AMZN) (+1.62%) and Alphabet (GOOGL) (+1.48%) also posted solid gains. Apple (AAPL) edged modestly higher (+0.51%), while Tesla (TSLA) was the lone laggard, slipping 0.65% amid mixed sentiment in electric vehicle names.

The U.S. 10-year yield rose to 4.165%.

In Europe, Germany's Dax 40 rose 0.23%, while France's Cac 40 fell 0.21%, and the U.K. FTSE 100 gained 0.24%.

In the commodities market, gold advanced 46 dollars (+1.04%) to a fresh record high at 4,491 dollars, while WTI crude oil futures climbed 0.37 dollars (+0.64%) to 58.38 dollars, up for a third straight session.


Market Wrap: Forex

The dollar index fell 0.34% to 97.94.

EUR/USD rose 29 pips (+0.25%) to 1.1789 and GBP/USD advanced 37 pips (+0.27%) to 1.3499.

USD/JPY fell 76 pips (-0.48%) to 156.29 and USD/CHF slipped 41 pips (-0.52%) to 0.7879.

AUD/USD rose 44 pips (+0.66%) to a 3-month high at 0.6699.

USD/CAD retreated 55 pips (-0.40%) to 1.3692. Canada's GDP grew 0.1% month-on-month in November, compared with the -0.2% estimated.

Finally, in the cryptocurrencies market, Bitcoin fell 640 dollars (-0.73%) to 87,611 dollars, and Ether dropped 23 dollars (-0.80%) to 2,963 dollars.


Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, EUR/USD advanced to 1.1805 and GBP/USD bounced to 1.3530.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY declined to 155.63.

Gold climbed to 4,506 dollars.

Bitcoin slipped to 87,355 dollars.


Expected Today

In the U.S., weekly initial jobless claims are estimated at 226,000.
Forex Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1.1793 -0.01 13.92
USD/JPY 155.78 -0.28 -0.62
GBP/USD 1.3514 -0.01 8.03
Commodities Last %1D %YTD
Gold 4,492.7965 0.11 71.04
Silver 72.1987 1.09 147.36
Crude Oil 58.5600 0.31 -18.34
EUR/USD intraday : rebound towards 1.1839 Next
Our pivot point is at 1.1748.

Our preference: rebound towards 1.1839

Alternative scenario: below 1.1748, expect 1.1716 and 1.1697.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and negative. The configuration is mixed. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.1777 and 1.1780).
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
EUR/JPY intraday : as long as 183.98 is support look for 185.01 Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 183.98.

Our preference: as long as 183.98 is support look for 185.01

Alternative scenario: below 183.98, expect 183.61 and 183.38.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and positive. The price could retrace. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 184.28 and 184.10).
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/USD intraday : our next up target stands at 1.3557 Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 1.3477.

Our preference: our next up target stands at 1.3557

Alternative scenario: below 1.3477, expect 1.3449 and 1.3432.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and negative. The MACD must break above its zero level to trigger further gains. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.3501 and 1.3501).
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/JPY intraday : as long as 210.90 is support look for 212.12 Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 210.90.

Our preference: as long as 210.90 is support look for 212.12

Alternative scenario: below 210.90, expect 210.45 and 210.19.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and positive. The price could retrace. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 211.24 and 211.01).
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/JPY intraday : as long as 156.11 is support look for 157.36 Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 156.11.

Our preference: as long as 156.11 is support look for 157.36

Alternative scenario: below 156.11, expect 155.65 and 155.37.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and positive. The price could retrace. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 156.48 and 156.30).
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/CAD intraday : Rebound Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 1.3652.

Our preference: Rebound

Alternative scenario: below 1.3652, expect 1.3632 and 1.3620.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and negative. The MACD must break above its zero level to trigger further gains. Moreover, the price stands above its 20 period moving average (1.3668) but below its 50 period moving average (1.3673).
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Crude Oil (WTI) (G6) Intraday: under pressure. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 57.75

Our preference: short positions below 57.75 with targets at 56.51 & 56.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 57.75 look for further upside with 58.15 & 58.86 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Brent (ICE) (H6) Intraday: the bias remains bullish. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 61.60

Our preference: long positions above 61.60 with targets at 62.40 & 62.90 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 61.60 look for further downside with 61.25 & 60.90 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50%.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Dow Jones (CME) (H6) Intraday: the bias remains bullish. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 48850

Our preference: long positions above 48850 with targets at 49130 & 49290 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 48850 look for further downside with 48700 & 48535 as targets.

Comment: the RSI calls for a new upleg.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Gold Intraday: turning up. Previous 
Pivot: 4495

Our preference: long positions above 4495 with targets at 4550 & 4572 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 4495 look for further downside with 4470 & 4440 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

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