Friday, January 9, 2026
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Market Comment
Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Thursday, U.S. stock indexes closed mixed as tech stocks dipped:

Dow Jones Industrial Average +270 points (+0.55%) to 49,266
S&P 500 +1 point (+0.01%) to 6,921
Nasdaq 100 -146 points (-0.57%) to 25,507

Alphabet (GOOGL) +1.07% marking a record close of 325.44 dollars, and surpassing Apple (AAPL) to be the second-most valuable U.S. company with a market capitalization of 3.93 trillion dollars.

Semiconductor stocks retreated:
Micron Technology (MU) -3.69%
Intel (INTC) -3.57%
Nvidia (NVDA) -2.15%

Defense stocks advanced following President Donald Trump's call for a 1.5-trillion-dollar defense budget for 2027:
Lockheed Martin (LMT) +4.34%
Northrop Grumman (NOC) +2.39%

Energy stocks rose alongside oil prices:
APA Corp (APA) +8.47%
Diamondback Energy (FANG) +5.13%
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) +5.46%.

In after-hours, General Motors (GM) announced an electric-vehicle-related writedown of 6 billion dollars.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield +1.7 basis points to 4.167%.

European stocks closed mixed:
DAX 40 +5 points (+0.02%) to 25,127
CAC 40 +9 points (+0.12%) to 8,243
FTSE 100 -3 points (-0.04%) to 10,044

Gold price +22 dollars to 4,478 dollars an ounce.

U.S. WTI crude futures +1.77 dollar (+3.16%) to 57.76 dollars a barrel.


Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar index climbed to 98.89 ahead of the closely-watched monthly non-farm payroll report due Friday.

EUR/USD -17 pips to 1.1656.

The Eurozone's producer prices -1.7% year on year in November (vs -1.8% expected, -0.5% in October).

Germany's factory orders +5.6% month on month in November (vs -0.6% expected, +1.5% in October).

USD/JPY +11 pips to 156.87.

GBP/USD -20 pips to 1.3437, AUD/USD -24 pips to 0.6696.

USD/CHF +10 pips to 0.7988, USD/CAD -4 pips to 1.3857.

Bitcoin climbed back to levels above 91,000 dollars.


Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, USD/JPY advanced to 157.14. Japan's household spending rose 2.9% year-on-year in November, compared with -0.9% expected.

On the other hand, China's inflation rate grew 0.8% year-on-year in December, above 0.7% estimated, while producer price index dropped 1.9%, compared with -1.7% expected.

Meanwhile, EUR/USD and GBP/USD were both little changed, at 1.1655 and 1.3436.

Gold was broadly steady at 4,474 dollars.

Bitcoin was stable at 90,941 dollars.


Expected Today

The eurozone's retail sales are expected to be up 0.5% month-on-month in November.

Germany's trade surplus for November is estimated at 17.1 billion euros, while industrial production is expected to drop 0.4% month-on-month.

France's industrial production is anticipated to increase by 0.6% month-on-month in November.

In the U.S., nonfarm payrolls are estimated to increase by 60,000 in December, while jobless rate is anticipated to drop to 4.5%. Also, the Michigan consumer sentiment index is expected to drop to 52.7 in January.

Canada's employment is expected to be up 25,000 in December, while jobless rate is estimated to climb to 6.7%.
Forex Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1.1650 -0.07 -0.74
USD/JPY 157.34 0.30 0.14
GBP/USD 1.3423 -0.10 -0.27
Commodities Last %1D %YTD
Gold 4,470.6506 -0.11 3.75
Silver 76.7792 -0.14 7.90
Crude Oil 58.2200 0.80 1.74
EUR/USD Intraday: the downside prevails. Next
Pivot: 1.1665

Our preference: short positions below 1.1665 with targets at 1.1630 & 1.1615 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.1665 look for further upside with 1.1685 & 1.1700 as targets.

Comment: as long as 1.1665 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
EUR/JPY intraday : the RSI is overbought Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 183.29.

Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 183.29 is support

Alternative scenario: below 183.29, expect 182.94 and 182.73.

Comment: the RSI is above 70. It could mean either that the price is in a lasting uptrend or just overbought and therefore bound to correct (look for bearish divergence in this case). The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 183.27 and 183.06).
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/USD Intraday: capped by a negative trend line. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.3450

Our preference: short positions below 1.3450 with targets at 1.3385 & 1.3355 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.3450 look for further upside with 1.3465 & 1.3485 as targets.

Comment: a break below 1.3385 would trigger a drop towards 1.3355.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/JPY intraday : the upside prevails as long as 211.11 is support Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 211.11.

Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 211.11 is support

Alternative scenario: below 211.11, expect 210.70 and 210.46.

Comment: the RSI is above 70. It could mean either that the price is in a lasting uptrend or just overbought and therefore bound to correct (look for bearish divergence in this case). The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 211.22 and 210.93).
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/JPY Intraday: further advance. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 157.20

Our preference: long positions above 157.20 with targets at 158.05 & 158.35 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 157.20 look for further downside with 156.80 & 156.50 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is supported by a bullish trend line.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/CAD Intraday: bullish bias above 1.3830. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.3830

Our preference: long positions above 1.3830 with targets at 1.3905 & 1.3930 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.3830 look for further downside with 1.3795 & 1.3770 as targets.

Comment: intraday technical indicators lack momentum.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Crude Oil (WTI) (G6) Intraday: bullish bias above 57.20. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 57.20

Our preference: long positions above 57.20 with targets at 58.50 & 59.05 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 57.20 look for further downside with 56.75 & 56.40 as targets.

Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Brent (ICE) (H6) Intraday: caution. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 61.25

Our preference: long positions above 61.25 with targets at 62.80 & 63.25 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 61.25 look for further downside with 60.85 & 60.40 as targets.

Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Dow Jones (CME) (H6) Intraday: bullish bias above 49340. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 49340

Our preference: long positions above 49340 with targets at 49640 & 49830 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 49340 look for further downside with 49195 & 49000 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50%.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Gold Intraday: choppy. Previous 
Pivot: 4445

Our preference: long positions above 4445 with targets at 4483 & 4500 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 4445 look for further downside with 4435 & 4415 as targets.

Comment: intraday technical indicators are mixed and call for caution.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

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