Wednesday, May 21, 2025
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Market Comment
Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Tuesday, U.S. stocks closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 114 points (-0.27%) to 42,677, the S&P 500 down 23 points (-0.39%) to 5,940, and the Nasdaq 100 down 79 points (-0.37%) to 21,367.

Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 halted their six-session rally.

Alphabet (GOOGL) fell 1.54%, Amazon.com (AMZN) dropped 1.01%, and Apple (AAPL) was down 0.92%.

Tesla (TSLA) closed 0.51% higher. Elon Musk, reaffirmed his commitment to leading the electric-vehicle maker and pledged to scale back his involvement in politics.

Moderna (MRNA), a vaccine maker, surged another 6.06% after gaining more than 6% in the prior session.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 4.485%.

European stocks closed higher, with the DAX 40 rising 0.42%, the CAC up 0.75%, and the FTSE 100 up 0.94%.

Gold price rebounded for a second session, gaining 60 dollars (+1.86%) to 3,289 dollars an ounce.

U.S. WTI crude-oil futures edged down 11 cents to 62.03 dollars a barrel.


Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar remained soft against other major currencies, with the dollar index declining 0.41 point to 100.01.

EUR/USD rose 38 pips to 1.1280.

USD/JPY dropped 32 pips to 144.53.

GBP/USD advanced 29 pips to 1.3386.

AUD/USD declined 36 pips to 0.6418. As expected, Australia’s central bank cut its key interest rates by 25 basis points. It left the door open to further easing in the months ahead.

USD/CHF slipped 55 pips to 0.8289.

USD/CAD retreated 32 pips to 1.3916. Canada’s inflation rate slowed to 1.7% year on year in April from 2.3% in March.

Bitcoin remained firm, approaching 107,000 dollars this morning.


Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, USD/JPY declined to 143.98. Japan's exports rose 2.0% year-on-year in April, compared with an estimated growth of 1.8%.

Meanwhile, EUR/USD climbed to 1.1318 and GBP/USD advanced to 1.3420.

Gold regained the 3,300 dollars level.

Bitcoin was steady at 106,825 dollars.


Expected Today

U.K. inflation rate is expected to climb to 3.3% year-on-year in April.
Forex Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1.1345 0.56 9.58
USD/JPY 143.92 -0.40 -8.23
GBP/USD 1.3415 0.16 7.23
Commodities Last %1D %YTD
Gold 3,311.7300 0.69 26.22
Silver 33.1529 0.26 14.82
Crude Oil 62.8400 1.31 -12.37
EUR/USD Intraday: intraday support around 1.1315. Next
Pivot: 1.1315

Our preference: long positions above 1.1315 with targets at 1.1385 & 1.1410 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.1315 look for further downside with 1.1280 & 1.1245 as targets.

Comment: the break above 1.1315 is a positive signal that has opened a path to 1.1385.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
EUR/JPY intraday : the upside prevails as long as 162.47 is support Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 162.47.

Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 162.47 is support

Alternative scenario: below 162.47, expect 161.87 and 161.51.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 162.91 and 162.85). Finally, the EUR/JPY is trading above its upper Bollinger band (standing at 163.09).
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/USD Intraday: bullish bias above 1.3385. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.3385

Our preference: long positions above 1.3385 with targets at 1.3445 & 1.3470 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.3385 look for further downside with 1.3360 & 1.3335 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/JPY intraday : rebound towards 194.84 Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 192.28.

Our preference: rebound towards 194.84

Alternative scenario: below 192.28, expect 191.39 and 190.87.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and negative. The configuration is mixed. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 193.20 and 193.28).
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/JPY Intraday: capped by a negative trend line. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 144.15

Our preference: short positions below 144.15 with targets at 143.10 & 142.80 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 144.15 look for further upside with 144.50 & 144.90 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bearish and calls for further decline.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/CAD Intraday: under pressure. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.3910

Our preference: short positions below 1.3910 with targets at 1.3860 & 1.3840 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.3910 look for further upside with 1.3935 & 1.3965 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Crude Oil (WTI) (N5) Intraday: intraday support around 62.40. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 62.40

Our preference: long positions above 62.40 with targets at 63.30 & 63.70 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 62.40 look for further downside with 61.90 & 61.45 as targets.

Comment: the next resistances are at 63.30 and then at 63.70.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Brent (ICE) (N5) Intraday: target 66.80. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 65.70

Our preference: long positions above 65.70 with targets at 66.80 & 67.20 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 65.70 look for further downside with 65.00 & 64.45 as targets.

Comment: the next resistances are at 66.80 and then at 67.20.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Dow Jones (CME) (M5) Intraday: consolidation in place. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 42800.00

Our preference: short positions below 42800.00 with targets at 42530.00 & 42330.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 42800.00 look for further upside with 42940.00 & 43090.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI calls for a drop.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Gold Intraday: bullish bias above 3280.00. Previous 
Pivot: 3280.00

Our preference: long positions above 3280.00 with targets at 3345.00 & 3368.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 3280.00 look for further downside with 3257.00 & 3236.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI has just landed on its neutrality area at 50% and is turning up.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

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