Monday, July 20, 2026
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Market Comment
Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Friday, U.S. stocks remained under pressure, with the S&P 500 closing 76 points lower (-1.01%) at 7,457 and the Nasdaq 100 down 433 points (-1.49%) to 28,592.

The Dow Jones declined 406 points (-0.77%) to 52,146.

Tech stocks weighed on the market after China's Moonshot AI released a new model it claims outperforms some American systems, stoking concerns over U.S. AI infrastructure spending.

Most mega-cap tech stocks fell, with Meta (META) losing 2.79%, Microsoft (MSFT) down 1.82%, Alphabet (GOOGL) down 2.17%, and Amazon (AMZN) down 1.06%.

Apple (AAPL) was the exception, edging up 0.14% to another record closing level. The move pushed Apple past Nvidia to become the world's most valuable company, at a market capitalization of 4.88 trillion dollars.

Semiconductors fell further: Nvidia (NVDA) dropped 2.21%, TSMC (TSM) fell 2.77%, Intel (INTC) fell 2.00%, and AMD dropped 1.03%.

Netflix (NFLX) declined 7.26% after quarterly results and guidance missed expectations.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was little changed, easing less than one basis point to 4.549%.

In Europe, the DAX 40 fell 0.34% and the CAC 40 declined 0.47%, while the FTSE 100 climbed 0.27%.

On Sunday, the U.S. said it had completed an eighth straight night of attacks against Iran, after earlier reporting that at least two U.S. military personnel were killed in Jordan. President Donald Trump said the "gates of hell" have been unleashed following the killing of U.S. Troops by Iran.

In early Asian trading hours on Monday, U.S. WTI crude futures jumped 2.83 dollars (+3.58%) to 81.78 dollars a barrel.

Gold slipped 18 dollars to 3,999 dollars an ounce.


Market Wrap: Forex

In early Asian trading hours on Monday, the U.S. dollar remained firm against major currencies.

U.S. industrial production edged up 0.1% month-on-month in June (vs +0.2% expected). The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 54.4 in June (vs 50.4 expected, 49.5 in May).

EUR/USD was still subdued at 1.1426, and GBP/USD at 1.3442.

USD/JPY remained elevated at 162.53, not far away from its 40-year high at 162.84 marked on July 1.

AUD/USD traded lower at 0.6974, extending its decline to a third session.

USD/CAD edged lower to 1.4009.

Bitcoin showed resilience, trading around 64,700 dollars.


Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, EUR/USD climbed to 1.1438 and GBP/USD advanced to 1.3459.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY eased to 162.34.

Gold rebounded to 4,011 dollars.

Bitcoin was steady at 64,751 dollars.


Expected Today

Germany's producer price index is expected to be up 1.8% year-on-year in June.

In the U.S., the leading index is anticipated to grow 0.2% month-on-month in June.

Canada's inflation rate is estimated to ease to 3.0% year-on-year in June.
Forex Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1.1441 0.02 -2.61
USD/JPY 162.33 -0.04 3.66
GBP/USD 1.3464 0.08 -0.15
Commodities Last %1D %YTD
Gold 4,010.9400 -0.14 -6.89
Silver 56.7200 1.47 -21.56
Crude Oil 84.2600 2.15 39.87
EUR/USD intraday: the upside prevails. Next
Pivot: 1.1420

Our preference: long positions above 1.1420 with targets at 1.1455 & 1.1470 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.1420 look for further downside with 1.1410 & 1.1395 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
EUR/JPY intraday : as long as 186.10 is resistance look for 185.09 Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 186.10.

Our preference: as long as 186.10 is resistance look for 185.09

Alternative scenario: above 186.10, look for 186.45 and 186.66.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The break above the 50 area on the RSI should trigger further gains. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 185.74 and 185.73).
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/USD intraday: further advance. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.3430

Our preference: long positions above 1.3430 with targets at 1.3480 & 1.3515 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.3430 look for further downside with 1.3405 & 1.3385 as targets.

Comment: the RSI shows upside momentum.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/JPY intraday : the upside prevails as long as 218.24 is support Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 218.24.

Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 218.24 is support

Alternative scenario: below 218.24, expect 217.71 and 217.39.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 218.57 and 218.46).
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/JPY intraday: the downside prevails. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 162.55

Our preference: short positions below 162.55 with targets at 162.15 & 162.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 162.55 look for further upside with 162.70 & 162.85 as targets.

Comment: as long as 162.55 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/CAD intraday: key resistance at 1.4030. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.4030

Our preference: short positions below 1.4030 with targets at 1.3990 & 1.3975 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.4030 look for further upside with 1.4055 & 1.4070 as targets.

Comment: even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Crude Oil (WTI) (U6) intraday: caution. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 80.50

Our preference: long positions above 80.50 with targets at 83.30 & 84.35 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 80.50 look for further downside with 79.50 & 78.10 as targets.

Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Brent (ICE) (U6) intraday: caution. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 87.35

Our preference: long positions above 87.35 with targets at 89.95 & 91.20 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 87.35 look for further downside with 85.90 & 83.90 as targets.

Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Dow Jones (CME) (U6) intraday: choppy. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 52610

Our preference: short positions below 52610 with targets at 52230 & 52120 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 52610 look for further upside with 52835 & 52990 as targets.

Comment: as long as 52610 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Gold intraday: the bias remains bullish. Previous 
Pivot: 3990

Our preference: long positions above 3990 with targets at 4028 & 4043 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 3990 look for further downside with 3965 & 3942 as targets.

Comment: the next resistances are at 4028 and then at 4043.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

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