Friday, February 14, 2025
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Market Comment
Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Thursday, U.S. stocks closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 342 points (+0.77%) to 44,711, the S&P 500 up 63 points (+1.04%) to 6,115, and the Nasdaq 100 up 311 points (+1.43%) to 22,030.

Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield tumbled 11 basis points to 4.525%, the biggest daily decline in a month.

U.S. President Donald Trump said he would announce plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on other countries over the next two days.

Tesla (TSLA) gained 5.77%, Nvidia (NVDA) added 3.16%, and Apple (AAPL) was up 1.97%.

MGM Resorts International (MGM) surged 17.46%, becoming the top performer in the S&P 500. The resort and casino operator reported better-than-expected quarterly sales.

Intel (INTC) advanced 7.34%, gaining a total of 26.34% in a strong four-session rebound.

Robinhood (HOOD) jumped 14.11%. The online trading platform reported stronger-than-expected quarterly sales.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) was up 2.09%. The computer-server maker raised its full-year sales forecast.

Regarding U.S. economic data, producer price inflation accelerated to 3.5% year on year in January (vs 3.4% expected, 3.3% in December), posting a five-month rally.

The latest number of initial jobless claims eased to 213,000 (vs 215,000 expected).

U.S. markets will be closed on Monday (February 17) for the Washington's Birthday holiday.

In Europe, the DAX 40 jumped 2.09% to a record closing level. The CAC 40 advanced 1.52%, while the FTSE 100 slipped 0.48%.

U.S. WTI crude-oil futures dipped 8 cents to 71.29 dollars a barrel.

Gold price climbed 24 dollars to 2,928 dollars an ounce.


Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar sank further, with the dollar index falling to 107.10.

EUR/USD gained 77 pips to 1.0459, up for a third straight session.

USD/JPY slid 167 pips (-1.08%) to 152.74.

GBP/USD advanced 117 pips to 1.2559. U.K. data showed that gross domestic product grew 0.1% quarter on quarter in the fourth quarter, in contrast to a decline of 0.1% expected.

AUD/USD rose 38 pips to 0.6317.

USD/CHF fell 106 pips (-1.16%) to 0.9030, and USD/CAD was down 113 pips to 1.4192.

Bitcoin retreated to its previous trading range, slipping over 1% to 96,400 dollars.


Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, EUR/USD held gains at 1.0455 and GBP/USD was steady at 1.2556.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY edged up to 152.95.

Gold was firm at 2,929 dollars.

Bitcoin was little changed at 96,703 dollars.


Expected Today

The eurozone's final reading of fourth quarter gross domestic product is expected to be up 0.9% year-on-year.

In the U.S., retail sales are estimated to be flat month-on-month in January, while industrial production and import prices are both expected to grow 0.3% month-on-month. Also, business inventories are estimated to drop 0.1% in December.
Forex Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1.0459 -0.05 1.02
USD/JPY 152.56 -0.15 -2.72
GBP/USD 1.2559 -0.05 0.38
Commodities Last %1D %YTD
Gold 2,933.5900 0.16 11.81
Silver 32.9450 1.81 14.10
Crude Oil 71.3600 0.10 -0.49
EUR/USD intraday: the upside prevails as long as 1.0471 is support Next
Our pivot point stands at 1.0471.

Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 1.0471 is support.

Alternative scenario: below 1.0471, expect 1.0441 and 1.0423.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is positive and above its signal line. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.0476 and 1.0459).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
EUR/JPY intraday: the upside prevails as long as 159.22 is support Previous  | Next
Our pivot point stands at 159.22.

Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 159.22 is support.

Alternative scenario: the downside breakout of 159.22 would call for 158.44 and 157.97.

Comment: the RSI is above 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 159.81 and 159.78).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/USD intraday: the upside prevails as long as 1.2579 is support Previous  | Next
Our pivot point stands at 1.2579.

Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 1.2579 is support.

Alternative scenario: below 1.2579, expect 1.2540 and 1.2517.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is positive and above its signal line. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is trading above both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.2585 and 1.2562).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/JPY intraday: the upside prevails as long as 191.35 is support Previous  | Next
191.35 is our pivot point.

Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 191.35 is support.

Alternative scenario: the downside breakout of 191.35 would call for 190.46 and 189.94.

Comment: the RSI is above 50. The MACD is positive and above its signal line. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 191.99 and 191.91).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/JPY intraday: the downside prevails as long as 152.93 is resistance Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 152.93.

Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 152.93 is resistance.

Alternative scenario: the upside breakout of 152.93, would call for 153.63 and 154.05.

Comment: the RSI is below 50. The MACD is negative and below its signal line. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price is trading under both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 152.55 and 152.77).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/CAD intraday: the downside prevails as long as 1.4196 is resistance Previous  | Next
Our pivot point stands at 1.4196.

Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 1.4196 is resistance.

Alternative scenario: the upside breakout of 1.4196, would call for 1.4237 and 1.4261.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.4172 and 1.4192).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Crude Oil (WTI) (H5) Intraday: under pressure. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 71.55

Our preference: short positions below 71.55 with targets at 70.25 & 69.70 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 71.55 look for further upside with 72.10 & 72.60 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50%

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Brent (ICE) (J5) Intraday: further advance. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 74.90

Our preference: long positions above 74.90 with targets at 76.00 & 76.40 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 74.90 look for further downside with 74.50 & 74.10 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50%.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Dow Jones (CME) (H5) Intraday: the upside prevails. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 44600.00

Our preference: long positions above 44600.00 with targets at 44960.00 & 45170.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 44600.00 look for further downside with 44390.00 & 44180.00 as targets.

Comment: the next resistances are at 44960.00 and then at 45170.00.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Gold Intraday: under pressure. Previous 
Pivot: 2911.00

Our preference: short positions below 2911.00 with targets at 2885.00 & 2872.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 2911.00 look for further upside with 2922.00 & 2931.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI has broken down its 30 level.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

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