Thursday, July 3, 2025
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Market Comment
Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Tuesday, both the S&P 500 (down 6 points or 0.11% to 6,198) and the Nasdaq 100 (down 200 points or 0.89% to 22,478) retreated from record-high levels.

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 400 points higher (+0.91%) at 44,494, posting a four-session winning streak.

Tesla (TSLA) slid 5.34% after the feud between U.S. President Donald Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk reignited. Trump threatened to cut off billions of dollars worth of government subsidies provided to Musk's companies.

At the same time, Nvidia (NVDA) lost 2.97%, Meta Platforms (META) dropped 2.56%, and Microsoft (MSFT) was down 1.08%.

On the other hand, Casino stocks outperformed the market, with Las Vegas Sands (LVS) jumping 8.89% and Wynn Resorts (WYNN) up 8.85%.

The 10-year Treasury yield rebounded 2.7 basis points to 4.249%.

Regarding U.S. economic data, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index improved to 49.0 in June from 48.5 in May.

Job openings unexpectedly increased by 374,000 to 7.769 million in May, up by two consecutive months.

In Europe, the DAX 40 fell 0.99%, the CAC 40 dipped 0.04%, while the FTSE 100 closed 0.28% higher.

U.S. WTI crude futures settled 34 cents higher at 65.45 dollars a barrel.

Gold price rebounded for a second session, gaining 35 dollars (+1.07%) to 3,338 dollars an ounce.


Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar remained weak, with the dollar index declined further to 96.65.

EUR/USD rose 12 pips to 1.1798. The Eurozone's inflation rate ticked up to 2.0% year on year in June (as expected).

USD/JPY declined 43 pips to 143.58.

GBP/USD advanced 10 pips to 1.3743.

USD/CHF slipped 14 pips to 0.7916, while USD/CAD climbed 35 pips to 1.3642.

Bitcoin lost traction suddenly, sliding over 1% to 105,600 dollars.


Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, AUD/USD was broadly flat at 0.6575. Australia's retail sales grew 0.2% month-on-month in May as expected.

Meanwhile, EUR/USD and GBP/USD were both stable, at 1.1800 and 1.3745 respectively.

USD/JPY remained subdued at 143.58.

Gold eased to 3,333 dollars.

Bitcoin was little changed at 105,628 dollars.


Expected Today

The eurozone's jobless rate is expected to be unchanged at 6.2% in May.

In the U.S., the ADP employment is estimated to increase by 90,000 in June.
Forex Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1.1787 -0.15 13.85
USD/JPY 143.80 0.26 -8.31
GBP/USD 1.3732 -0.09 9.76
Commodities Last %1D %YTD
Gold 3,337.3200 -0.05 27.19
Silver 36.0726 0.03 24.93
Crude Oil 65.5500 0.15 -8.59
EUR/USD Intraday: choppy. Next
Pivot: 1.1775

Our preference: long positions above 1.1775 with targets at 1.1830 & 1.1850 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.1775 look for further downside with 1.1750 & 1.1730 as targets.

Comment: intraday technical indicators are mixed and call for caution.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
EUR/JPY intraday : the upside prevails as long as 169.21 is support Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 169.21.

Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 169.21 is support

Alternative scenario: below 169.21, expect 168.82 and 168.58.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 169.47 and 169.44).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/USD Intraday: consolidation. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.3600

Our preference: long positions above 1.3600 with targets at 1.3670 & 1.3710 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.3600 look for further downside with 1.3560 & 1.3530 as targets.

Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/JPY intraday : rebound towards 197.08 Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 195.44.

Our preference: rebound towards 197.08

Alternative scenario: below 195.44, expect 194.85 and 194.50.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and negative. The configuration is mixed. Moreover, the price stands above its 20 period moving average (195.92) but below its 50 period moving average (196.36).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/JPY Intraday: key resistance at 144.00. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 144.00

Our preference: short positions below 144.00 with targets at 143.30 & 143.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 144.00 look for further upside with 144.25 & 144.50 as targets.

Comment: the upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 144.00.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/CAD Intraday: under pressure. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.3615

Our preference: short positions below 1.3615 with targets at 1.3560 & 1.3540 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.3615 look for further upside with 1.3635 & 1.3655 as targets.

Comment: as long as the resistance at 1.3615 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.3560 remains high.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Crude Oil (WTI) (Q5) Intraday: intraday support around 66.40. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 66.40

Our preference: long positions above 66.40 with targets at 67.85 & 68.50 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 66.40 look for further downside with 65.90 & 65.25 as targets.

Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Brent (ICE) (U5) Intraday: watch 69.20. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 68.10

Our preference: long positions above 68.10 with targets at 69.20 & 69.50 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 68.10 look for further downside with 67.40 & 66.70 as targets.

Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Dow Jones (CME) (U5) Intraday: intraday support around 44600.00. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 44600.00

Our preference: long positions above 44600.00 with targets at 45000.00 & 45130.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 44600.00 look for further downside with 44430.00 & 44230.00 as targets.

Comment: the next resistances are at 45000.00 and then at 45130.00.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Gold Intraday: consolidation. Previous 
Pivot: 3357.00

Our preference: short positions below 3357.00 with targets at 3328.00 & 3310.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 3357.00 look for further upside with 3365.00 & 3378.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI calls for a drop.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

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