Sunday, February 25, 2024
Click here to view the Economic Calendar
EUR/USD / EUR/JPY / GBP/USD / GBP/JPY / USD/JPY / USD/CAD / Crude Oil / Brent / Dow Jones / Gold
Market Comment
Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Thursday, U.S. stocks rose, pushing all the three major stock indexes to record closes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 456 points (+1.18%) to 39,069, the S&P 500 jumped 105 points (+2.11%) to 5,087, and the Nasdaq 100 surged 525 points (+3.01%) to 18,004.

The market's focus was on Nvidia (NVDA), which soared 16.40% to a record close of $785.38, adding $277 billion to its market capitalization, the biggest one-day value gain in Wall Street history.

Technology, consumer discretionary, and communication services stock sectors gained the most.

Meta Platforms (META) jumped 3.87% to $486.13, also a record close.

Other big-tech stocks also did well, with Amazon.com (AMZN) rising 3.55%, Microsoft (MSFT) up 2.35%, Tesla (TSLA) up 1.36%, Apple (AAPL) up 1.12%, and Alphabet (GOOGL) up 1.08%.

Moderna (MRNA) climbed 13.53%. The biotech firm posted a better-than-expected quarterly profit.

On the other hand, electric-vehicle makers Rivian Automotive (RIVN) and Lucid Group (LCID) tumbled 25.60% and 16.76% respectively, and Etsy Inc (ETSY), an e-commerce services firm, slid 8.44%. These companies reported disappointing quarterly results.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield added one basis point to 4.333%.

Regarding U.S. economic data, the latest number of initial jobless claims fell to 201,000 (vs 215,000 expected).

The S&P Global U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 51.5 in February (vs 50.3 expected). The number of existing home sales increased 3.1% on month in January (vs +3.0% expected).

European stocks also closed higher, with the DAX 40 rising 1.47%, the CAC 40 up 1.27%, and the FTSE 100 up 0.29%.

Earlier on Thursday, Japan's Nikkei 225 Index jumped up to an all-time intraday high of 39,156 before closing at 39,098, a record close surpassing the previous one marked in December 1989.

Japan's stock market is closed today (Friday) for the Emperor's Birthday holiday.

U.S. WTI crude-oil futures gained $0.53 to $78.44 a barrel. The U.S. Energy Department reported an addition of 3.51 million barrels in crude-oil stockpiles (vs +3.88 million barrels expected).

Gold price was flat at $2,024 an ounce.


Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar index was stable at 103.94.

EUR/USD edged up 3 pips to 1.0820. The HCOB manufacturing PMI ticked down to 46.1 in the Eurozone in February (vs 46.8 expected), and fell to 42.3 in Germany (vs 46.6 expected).

GBP/USD gained 22 pips to 1.2656. In the U.K., the S&P Global manufacturing PMI edged up to 47.1 in February (vs 47.3 expected).

USD/JPY rose 22 pips to 150.50.

AUD/USD added 6 pips to 0.6556.

USD/CHF gained 6 pips to 0.8800.

USD/CAD slipped 24 pips to 1.3481. Canada's data showed that retail sales grew 0.9% on month in December (vs +0.7% expected).

Bitcoin still lacked upward momentum as it slipped 1% to $51,270.


Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, EUR/USD and GBP/USD were both steady at 1.0825 and 1.2660 respectively.

The U.K. GfK consumer confidence index declined to -21 in February (vs -20 expected).

Meanwhile, USD/JPY was stable at 150.50.

Gold was little changed at $2,025.

Bitcoin fell to $51,040.


Expected Today

Germany's Ifo business climate index is expected to climb to 85.7 in February, while final readings of fourth quarter gross domestic product is estimated to be down 0.2% on year.
Forex Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1.0826 0.03 -1.90
USD/JPY 150.59 0.05 6.76
GBP/USD 1.2682 0.18 -0.37
Commodities Last %1D %YTD
Gold 2,023.2382 -0.04 -1.89
Silver 22.7353 -0.08 -4.31
Crude Oil 77.2900 -1.68 7.78
EUR/USD intraday: the downside prevails as long as 1.0835 is resistance Next
Our pivot point is at 1.0835.

Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 1.0835 is resistance.

Alternative scenario: the upside breakout of 1.0835, would call for 1.0855 and 1.0867.

Comment: the RSI is below 50. The MACD is negative and below its signal line. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.0826 and 1.0825).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
EUR/JPY intraday: the downside prevails as long as 163.22 is resistance Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 163.22.

Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 163.22 is resistance.

Alternative scenario: above 163.22, look for 163.70 and 163.98.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 162.89 and 162.93).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/USD intraday: under pressure below 1.2689 Previous  | Next
1.2689 is our pivot point.

Our preference: under pressure below 1.2689.

Alternative scenario: above 1.2689, look for 1.2714 and 1.2729.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and positive. The MACD must penetrate its zero line to expect further downside. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.2681 and 1.2670).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/JPY intraday: the downside prevails as long as 191.08 is resistance Previous  | Next
Our pivot point stands at 191.08.

Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 191.08 is resistance.

Alternative scenario: the upside breakout of 191.08, would call for 191.59 and 191.90.

Comment: the RSI is below 50. The MACD is negative and below its signal line. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price is trading under both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 190.80 and 190.70).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/JPY intraday: rebound Previous  | Next
Our pivot point stands at 150.15.

Our preference: rebound.

Alternative scenario: below 150.15, expect 149.74 and 149.50.

Comment: the RSI is above 50. The MACD is above its signal line and negative. The MACD must break above its zero level to call for further upside. Moreover, the price stands above its 20 period moving average (150.46) but below its 50 period moving average (150.51).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/CAD intraday: the upside prevails as long as 1.3480 is support Previous  | Next
1.3480 is our pivot point.

Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 1.3480 is support.

Alternative scenario: below 1.3480, expect 1.3455 and 1.3441.

Comment: the RSI is above 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is trading above both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.3489 and 1.3486).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Crude Oil (WTI) (J4) Intraday: the downside prevails. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 77.00

Our preference: short positions below 77.00 with targets at 76.30 & 75.90 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 77.00 look for further upside with 77.35 & 77.70 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50%

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Brent (ICE) (J4) Intraday: under pressure. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 82.45

Our preference: short positions below 82.45 with targets at 81.70 & 81.40 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 82.45 look for further upside with 82.90 & 83.50 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50%

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Dow Jones (CME) (H4) Intraday: intraday support around 39080.00. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 39080.00

Our preference: long positions above 39080.00 with targets at 39340.00 & 39500.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 39080.00 look for further downside with 38890.00 & 38740.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is around its neutrality area at 50%

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Gold Intraday: intraday support around 2029.00. Previous 
Pivot: 2029.00

Our preference: long positions above 2029.00 with targets at 2042.00 & 2048.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 2029.00 look for further downside with 2020.00 & 2015.00 as targets.

Comment: the next resistances are at 2042.00 and then at 2048.00.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

Disclaimer

TRADING CENTRAL is an independent third party research provider and the information provided should not be considered as trading advice. ICM Capital provides TRADING CENTRAL research to support clients in their trades and give them trading ideas, which should be independently evaluated. ICM Capital cannot be held liable for any information provided by TRADING CENTRAL.

ICM Capital Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales under registered number: 07101360.

ICM Capital Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) regulatory number: 520965.

Registered address: New Broad Street House, 35 New Broad St, London EC2M 1NH, United Kingdom

TRADING CENTRAL Terms and conditions

The information provided does not constitute, in any way, a solicitation or inducement to buy or sell securities and similar products. Comments and analysis reflect the views of TRADING CENTRAL at any given time and are subject to change at any time. Moreover, they can not constitute a commitment or guarantee on the part of TRADING CENTRAL. The recipient acknowledges and agrees that by their very nature any investment in a financial instrument is of a random nature and therefore any such investment constitutes a risky investment for which the recipient is solely responsible. It is specified that the past performance of a financial product does not prejudge in any way their future performance. The foreign exchange market and financial derivatives such as futures, CFDs (Contracts for Difference), warrants, turbos or certificates involve a high degree of risk. They require a good level of financial knowledge and experience. TRADING CENTRAL recommends the consultation of a financial professional who would have a perfect knowledge of the financial and patrimonial situation of the recipient of this message and would be able to verify that the financial products mentioned are adapted to the said situation and the financial objectives pursued. TRADING CENTRAL recommends reading the "risk factors" section of the prospectus for any financial product mentioned.

Head of Research at TRADING CENTRAL: Rémy GAUSSENS

TRADING CENTRAL is governed by the code of conduct of the association ANACOFI-CIF, association approved by the Financial Markets Authority and registered with ORIAS under number 17005458.

In the United States, TRADING CENTRAL AMERICAS, INC. is a Registered Investment Adviser (RIA) with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under IARD/CRD number 801-67210. Services are provided in the United States by TRADING Central Americas, Inc. TRADING Central will provide a copy of its most recent written disclosure statement without charge upon written request. Notwithstanding the foregoing paragraphs, nothing herein shall constitute a waiver or limitation of any U.S. person's rights under relevant U.S. federal or state laws.

In Asia, TRADING CENTRAL ASIA LTD has received a license (number AWI815) from the Hong Kong-based Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) to conduct “Type 4” and “Type 5” regulated activities (Advising on Securities and Futures).

TRADING CENTRAL recommends that you read the legal and regulatory information and warnings about the information provided by visiting the following link : terms_of_use_web_sites_en.pdf

Headquarters of the publisher : TRADING CENTRAL SA, 11 bis rue Scribe, 75009 Paris
RCS : PARIS B 423 512 607 VAT N° FR 174 235 12607
Click here to unsubscribe from this newsletter