Thursday, October 10, 2024
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Market Comment
Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Wednesday, U.S. stocks advanced for a second session, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (up 431 points or 1.03% to 42,512) and the S&P 500 (up 40 points or 0.71% to 5,792) closing at record levels. The Nasdaq 100 rose 161 points (+0.80%) to 20,268.

Minutes of the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting revealed that a "substantial majority" of officials supported an outsized 50-basis-point rate cut.

Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield added a further 3 basis points to 4.067%

Technology, healthcare and industrial stock sectors led the market higher.

Apple (AAPL) advanced 1.67%, and Amazon.com (AMZN) was up 1.34%.

However, Alphabet (GOOGL) fell 1.53%. The U.S. Department of Justice said it may propose Google breaking up its business to curtail its monopoly in online search.

Boeing (BA) fell 3.41%. Negotiations between the plane-maker and its largest union broke down.

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM) soared 30.90%. Mining giant Rio Tinto said it would acquire the company for $6.7 billion.

Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) jumped 10.91% after Citigroup upgraded the stock's rating to "buy".

Also, Carnival (CCL) gained 7.05%, and Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) was up 5.26%.

European stocks also closed higher, with the DAX 40 rising 0.99%, the CAC 40 up 0.52%, and the FTSE 100 up 0.65%.

Earlier on Wednesday, China's CSI 300 Index tumbled 7.05%, halting a 10-session winning streak, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index slipped a further 1.38%.

U.S. WTI crude-oil futures retreated for a second session, easing a further $0.33 to $73.24 a barrel. The U.S. Energy Department reported an addition of 5.8 million barrels in the crude-oil stockpiles (vs +2.0 million barrels expected).


Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar strengthened against other major currencies ahead of closely-watched inflation data due Thursday. The dollar index advanced to 102.92, its highest level in nearly two months.

EUR/USD fell 42 pips to 1.0938, the lowest level in nearly 2 months.

USD/JPY bounced 115 pips to 149.34.

GBP/USD dropped 40 pips to 1.3064, and AUD/USD was down 34 pips to 0.6711.

USD/CHF gained 39 pips to 0.8607, and USD/CAD was up 67 pips to 1.3714.

Gold price dropped $14 to $2,607 an ounce, posting a six-session decline.

Bitcoin failed to post a sustainable rebound, slipping back to levels below $61,000.


Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, USD/JPY was steady at 149.15. Japan's producer prices index growth accelerated to 2.8% year-on-year in September, above 2.7% estimated.

Meanwhile, EUR/USD edged up to 1.0943 and GBP/USD rebounded to 1.3075.

Gold climbed to $2,612.

Bitcoin was little changed at $60,820.


Expected Today

In the U.S., the core inflation rate is expected to ease to 3.1% year-on-year in September, while weekly initial jobless is estimated at 227,000.
Forex Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1.0939 0.00 -0.88
USD/JPY 149.31 0.01 5.85
GBP/USD 1.3072 0.02 2.69
Commodities Last %1D %YTD
Gold 2,613.7300 0.23 26.72
Silver 30.5100 0.00 28.41
Crude Oil 73.8300 0.81 2.96
EUR/USD Intraday: under pressure. Next
Pivot: 1.0960

Our preference: short positions below 1.0960 with targets at 1.0925 & 1.0910 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.0960 look for further upside with 1.0980 & 1.0995 as targets.

Comment: the break below 1.0960 is a negative signal that has opened a path to 1.0925.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
EUR/JPY intraday: as long as 162.59 is support look for 164.63 Previous  | Next
Our pivot point stands at 162.59.

Our preference: as long as 162.59 is support look for 164.63.

Alternative scenario: below 162.59, expect 161.83 and 161.37.

Comment: the RSI is above 50. The MACD is below its signal line and positive. The pair could retrace. Moreover, the price is trading above both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 163.24 and 163.07).
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/USD Intraday: key resistance at 1.3090. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.3090

Our preference: short positions below 1.3090 with targets at 1.3040 & 1.3020 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.3090 look for further upside with 1.3110 & 1.3130 as targets.

Comment: as long as the resistance at 1.3090 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.3040 remains high.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/JPY intraday: as long as 194.18 is support look for 196.83 Previous  | Next
Our pivot point stands at 194.18.

Our preference: as long as 194.18 is support look for 196.83.

Alternative scenario: the downside breakout of 194.18 would call for 193.19 and 192.60.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is positive and below its signal line. The pair could retrace. Moreover, the price is trading above both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 195 and 194.71).
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/JPY Intraday: further advance. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 148.90

Our preference: long positions above 148.90 with targets at 149.60 & 150.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 148.90 look for further downside with 148.60 & 148.35 as targets.

Comment: the RSI calls for a new upleg.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/CAD Intraday: towards 1.3730. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.3685

Our preference: long positions above 1.3685 with targets at 1.3730 & 1.3750 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.3685 look for further downside with 1.3670 & 1.3650 as targets.

Comment: the break above 1.3685 is a positive signal that has opened a path to 1.3730.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Crude Oil (WTI) (X4) Intraday: expect 71.55. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 74.40

Our preference: short positions below 74.40 with targets at 72.70 & 71.55 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 74.40 look for further upside with 75.40 & 76.40 as targets.

Comment: as long as 74.40 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Brent (ICE) (Z4) Intraday: watch 75.10. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 77.95

Our preference: short positions below 77.95 with targets at 76.00 & 75.10 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 77.95 look for further upside with 79.25 & 80.15 as targets.

Comment: as long as 77.95 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Dow Jones (CME) (Z4) Intraday: intraday support around 42540.00. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 42540.00

Our preference: long positions above 42540.00 with targets at 43000.00 & 43200.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 42540.00 look for further downside with 42390.00 & 42260.00 as targets.

Comment: the next resistances are at 43000.00 and then at 43200.00.
Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Gold Intraday: key resistance at 2624.00. Previous 
Pivot: 2624.00

Our preference: short positions below 2624.00 with targets at 2605.00 & 2595.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 2624.00 look for further upside with 2634.00 & 2642.00 as targets.

Comment: as long as the resistance at 2624.00 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 2605.00 remains high.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

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