ICM Capital - Market Update

Thursday, April 25, 2024

marketupdate@ICMCapital.co.uk

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Market Comment

Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Wednesday, major U.S. stock indexes closed mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 42 points (-0.11%) to 38,460, while the S&P 500 added 1 point to 5,071, and the Nasdaq 100 rose 55 points (+0.32%) to 17,526.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose 5.0 basis points to 4.648%.

Utilities, consumer discretionary and consumer staples stock sectors posted gains, while industrial and healthcare sectors were under pressure.

Tesla (TSLA) jumped 12.06%. Though posting lower-than-expected first-quarter results, the electric-vehicle maker announced plans to accelerate the release of more affordable vehicle models.

Texas Instruments (TXN) climbed 5.64%. The semiconductor designer issued upbeat second quarter earnings guidance.

Boston Scientific (BSX) gained 5.68%. The medical-device developer raised its annual profit forecast on strong demand for heart devices.

Enphase Energy (ENPH) slid 5.56%. The solar-power solution provider reported lower-than-expected second-quarter forecasts.

In after-market hours, Meta Platforms (META) plunged 17% after giving a downbeat second-quarter result guidance.

International Business Machines (IBM) slid 8% in after-market hours after reporting first-quarter results and announcing its acquisition of HashiCorp (HCP) for $6.4 billion.

Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Intel (INTC) will report quarterly results after the market closes on Thursday.

Regarding U.S. economic data, durable goods orders rose 2.6% on month in March (vs +2.2% expected).

European stocks closed lower, with the DAX 40 falling 0.27%, the CAC 40 down 0.17%, and the FTSE 100 down 0.06%.

U.S. WTI crude-oil dropped $0.61 (-0.73%) to $82.75 a barrel.

Gold price retreated $7 to $2,314 an ounce.

Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar index climbed to 105.82.

USD/JPY eventually surpassed the closely-watched level of 155, running up to 155.37, the highest level since mid-1990.

EUR/USD was flat at 1.0698. In Germany, the Ifo business climate index improved to 89.4 in April (vs 88.9 expected).

GBP/USD gained 15 pips to 1.2461.

AUD/USD rose 10 pips to 0.6495. Australia's data showed that the inflation rate slowed to 3.6% on year in the first quarter (vs 3.4% expected).

USD/CHF rose 33 pips to 0.9150.

USD/CAD increased 42 pips to 1.3703. In Canada, retail sales declined 0.1% on month in February (vs +0.1% expected).

Bitcoin lost traction, sliding through levels of $66,000, $65,000 and $64,000.

Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, USD/JPY held gains at 155.40.

Meanwhile, EUR/USD edged up to 1.0705 and GBP/USD was steady at 1.2465.

Gold rebounded to $2,321.

Bitcoin was little changed at $64,205.

Expected Today

Germany's GfK consumer confidence index is expected to improve to -25.8 in May.

France's business confidence index is anticipated to be unchanged at 102 in April.

In the U.S., first quarter annualized gross domestic product is expected to grow 2.3% on quarter, while weekly initial jobless claims are estimated at 213,000. Also wholesale inventories are expected to be up 0.2% on month and pending home sales are estimated to increase by 0.9%, while goods trade deficit is anticipated at 90.3 billion dollars.

Forex	Last	%1D	%YTD
EUR/USD	1.0726	0.27	-2.81
USD/JPY	155.59	0.16	10.31
GBP/USD	1.2518	0.46	-1.66

Commodities	Last	%1D	%YTD
Gold	2,325.0000	0.40	12.72
Silver	27.3663	0.70	15.18
Crude Oil	82.7500	-0.07	15.40

EUR/USD intraday: the upside prevails as long as 1.0719 is support

Our pivot point stands at 1.0719.

Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 1.0719 is support.

Alternative scenario: the downside breakout of 1.0719 would call for 1.0703 and 1.0694.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is positive and above its signal line. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.0718 and 1.0709).