Monday, June 17, 2024
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Market Comment
Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Friday, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 extended its winning streak to a fifth session, gaining 82 points (+0.42%) to another record close of 19,659.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 dipped 2 points (-0.04%) to 5,431, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 57 points (-0.15%) to 38,589.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield eased a further 2 basis points to 4.213%.

While the technology stock sector performed the best, basic materials and industrial sectors posted losses.

Adobe (ADBE) surged 14.51%, as the company raised its full-year revenue forecast considering growing demand for its artificial-intelligence-related software.

Broadcom (AVGO) advanced a further 3.34% after jumping 12% Thursday. Citigroup increased its price target on the stock to $1,750.

Nvidia (NVDA) added 1.75% to close at a record level of $131.88.

French stocks were dragged by political uncertainty in France, with the CAC 40 sliding 2.66%. France's finance minister warned that the country could face financial-crisis risks in case the far right or left wins in the coming parliamentary election because of their heavy spending plans.

The DAX 40 fell 1.44%, and the FTSE 100 dropped 0.21%.

U.S. WTI crude-oil futures declined $0.17 to $78.45 a barrel.

Gold price jumped $46 (+2.03%) to $2,347 an ounce.


Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar held its strength against other major currencies. The dollar index rose to 105.50.

EUR/USD fell 105 pips to 1.0708.

USD/JPY gained 56 pips to 157.36. As expected, the Bank of Japan kept its key interest-rate unchanged at 0.10%. The central bank also announced plans to reduce its purchase of Japanese government bonds.

GBP/USD slid 108 pips to 1.2687, AUD/USD dropped 46 pips to 0.6616.

USD/CHF declined 40 pips to 0.8902, while USD/CAD added 9 pips to 1.3731.

Bitcoin kept facing selling pressure, as it once dipped below $66,000.


Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, USD/JPY was firm at 157.40. This morning, Japan's data showed that machinery orders dropped 2.9% month on month in April (vs -0.5% expected).

USD/CNH dipped to 7.2682. This morning, China's data showed that industrial production increased 5.6% year on year in May (vs +6.3% expected), and retail sales were up 3.7% (vs +2.6% expected).

EUR/USD was little changed at 1.0702, and GBP/USD was flat at 1.2682.

Gold retreated to $2,322 an ounce.

Bitcoin slipped back to $66,200.


Expected Today

In the U.S., the New York State manufacturing index is expected to improve to -10.0 in June.
Forex Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1.0704 0.04 -3.01
USD/JPY 157.60 0.15 11.73
GBP/USD 1.2659 -0.18 -0.55
Commodities Last %1D %YTD
Gold 2,321.9000 -0.46 12.57
Silver 29.2097 -1.12 22.94
Crude Oil 78.2600 -0.24 9.13
EUR/USD Intraday: key resistance at 1.0725. Next
Pivot: 1.0725

Our preference: short positions below 1.0725 with targets at 1.0665 & 1.0650 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.0725 look for further upside with 1.0745 & 1.0770 as targets.

Comment: as long as 1.0725 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
EUR/JPY intraday: the upside prevails as long as 168.21 is support Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 168.21.

Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 168.21 is support.

Alternative scenario: below 168.21, expect 167.65 and 167.32.

Comment: the RSI is above 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is trading above both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 168.57 and 168.37).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/USD Intraday: the downside prevails. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.2690

Our preference: short positions below 1.2690 with targets at 1.2650 & 1.2625 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.2690 look for further upside with 1.2715 & 1.2735 as targets.

Comment: as long as 1.2690 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/JPY intraday: rebound towards 201.07 Previous  | Next
Our pivot point stands at 198.92.

Our preference: rebound towards 201.07.

Alternative scenario: below 198.92, expect 198.19 and 197.75.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and negative. The configuration is mixed. Moreover, the price is trading under both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 199.64 and 199.59).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/JPY Intraday: bullish bias above 157.10. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 157.10

Our preference: long positions above 157.10 with targets at 157.90 & 158.25 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 157.10 look for further downside with 156.70 & 156.20 as targets.

Comment: a support base at 157.10 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/CAD Intraday: key resistance at 1.3755. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.3755

Our preference: short positions below 1.3755 with targets at 1.3715 & 1.3695 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.3755 look for further upside with 1.3775 & 1.3790 as targets.

Comment: as long as the resistance at 1.3755 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.3715 remains high.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Crude Oil (WTI) (Q4) Intraday: turning up. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 77.90

Our preference: long positions above 77.90 with targets at 78.80 & 78.95 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 77.90 look for further downside with 77.60 & 77.35 as targets.

Comment: the break above 77.90 is a positive signal that has opened a path to 78.80.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Brent (ICE) (Q4) Intraday: rebound. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 82.45

Our preference: long positions above 82.45 with targets at 83.05 & 83.35 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 82.45 look for further downside with 82.10 & 81.80 as targets.

Comment: the break above 82.45 is a positive signal that has opened a path to 83.05.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Dow Jones (CME) (U4) Intraday: intraday support around 38850.00. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 38850.00

Our preference: long positions above 38850.00 with targets at 39110.00 & 39300.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 38850.00 look for further downside with 38700.00 & 38550.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed and calls for caution.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Gold Intraday: under pressure. Previous 
Pivot: 2329.00

Our preference: short positions below 2329.00 with targets at 2307.00 & 2295.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 2329.00 look for further upside with 2340.00 & 2354.00 as targets.

Comment: as long as 2329.00 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

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