ICM Capital - Market Update

Saturday, March 14, 2026

marketupdate@ICMCapital.co.uk

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Market Comment

Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Thursday, major U.S. stock indexes slid over 1.5%, with the S&P 500 falling 103 points (-1.52%) to 6,672, and the Nasdaq 100 down 431 points (-1.73%) to 24,533.

The Dow Jones tumbled 739 points (-1.56%) to 46,677.

Market sentiment was heavily dragged by surging oil prices. U.S. WTI crude futures jumped 8.48 dollars (+9.72%) to 95.73 dollars a barrel.

Six ships were attacked in the Gulf in less than 48 hours, according to the BBC.

And Iran’s new supreme leader vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and attack U.S. bases.

Nvidia (NVDA) closed 1.55% lower, halting a three-session rebound.

Other technology giants also showed marked losses, with Tesla (TSLA) dropping 3.14%, Meta (META) down 2.55%, Apple (AAPL) down 1.94%, and Alphabet (GOOGL) down 1.67%.

Morgan Stanley (MS) tumbled 4.05% after a regulatory filing revealed that the company had limited redemptions from one of its private credit funds.

Dollar General (DG) slid 6.14% after the discount retailer gave a disappointing full-year guidance.

CF Industries (CF) surged 13.21%, and Mosaic (MOS) gained 7.58%. These producers of agricultural commodities were buoyed by concerns that traffic disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would lead to a potential global fertilizer shortage.

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) climbed 5.09% after being upgraded to "overweight" by Wells Fargo.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was up for a third straight session, gaining 3.3 basis points to 4.261%.

European stocks remained under pressure, with the DAX 40 dropping 0.21%, the CAC 40 down 0.71%, and the FTSE 100 down 0.47%.

Gold slid 96 dollars (-1.86%) to 5,079 dollars an ounce.

Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar kept strengthening against other major currencies as investors expected countries other than the U.S. to be hurt more by surging oil prices.

The dollar index advanced further to 99.74.

U.S. data showed that the latest number of jobless claims declined to 213,000, lower than expected.

EUR/USD dropped 55 pips to 1.1511.

USD/JPY gained 45 pips to 159.39.

GBP/USD slipped 68 pips to 1.3343, and AUD/USD declined 74 pips (-1.03%) to 0.7077.

USD/CHF advanced 59 pips to 0.7861.

USD/CAD climbed 43 pips to 1.3633.

Bitcoin outperformed the stock market, as it remained buoyed at levels above 70,000 dollars.

Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, EUR/USD and GBP/USD both remained subdued, at 1.1508 and 1.3343 respectively.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY was firm at 159.38.

Gold rebounded to 5,113 dollars.

Bitcoin held gains at 71,219 dollars.

Expected Today

The eurozone's industrial production is estimated to be up 0.9% month-on-month in January.

U.K. gross domestic product is expected to grow 0.1% month-on-month in January.

In the U.S., the second estimate of the second quarter gross domestic product is estimated to grow 1.4% quarter-on-quarter, while the core personal consumption expenditures price index is expected to stay at 3.0% year-on-year in January and durable goods orders are estimated to increase by 0.3% month-on-month. Also, the Michigan consumer sentiment index is expected to slip to 55.0 in March,

Canada's employment is estimated to drop 15,000 in February, while jobless rate is expected to climb to 6.7%.

Forex	Last	%1D	%YTD
EUR/USD	1.1496	-0.12	-2.00
USD/JPY	159.38	0.03	1.71
GBP/USD	1.3321	-0.15	-0.98

Commodities	Last	%1D	%YTD
Gold	5,091.0600	0.24	17.73
Silver	82.7350	-1.23	17.54
Crude Oil	95.1000	-0.66	67.83

EUR/USD intraday : the RSI is oversold

Our pivot point is at 1.1436.

Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 1.1436 is resistance

Alternative scenario: above 1.1436, look for 1.1459 and 1.1473.

Comment: the RSI is below 30. It could either mean that the price is in a lasting downtrend or just oversold and therefore bound to retrace (look for bullish divergence in this case). The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.1449 and 1.1478).