DAILY NEWS BRIEF - MARKET OUTLOOK

May 19, 2026

Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Ventura Prime FX! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you.

Crude Oil (WTI) Gold GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/USD Silver Dow Jones (CME) S&P 500 (CME)

Market Wrap

Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Monday, the major U.S. indexes closed mixed.

The S&P 500 dipped 5 points (-0.07%) to 7,403, and the Nasdaq 100 fell 130 points (-0.45%) to 28,994.

The Dow Jones closed 159 points higher (+0.32%) at 49,686.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield ran up to a one-year high of 4.631% before easing to 4.585%.

Semiconductor stocks continued to retreat, with Nvidia (NVDA) dropping 1.33%, Broadcom (AVGO) down 1.05%, Micron (MU) down 5.95%, and Applied Materials (AMAT) down 5.28%.

Also, Sandisk (SNDK) slid 5.30%, Seagate Technology (STX) lost 6.87%, and Western Digital (WDC) was down 4.84%.

Energy stocks outperformed the market on rising oil prices, with Exxon Mobil (XOM) rising 1.63%, Chevron (CVX) up 2.63%, and APA Corp (APA) up 3.00%.

Dominion Energy (D) surged 9.44%, while NextEra Energy (NEE) closed 4.63% lower. NextEra Energy announced its acquisition of Dominion Energy in a 66.8-billion-dollar deal that would create the largest electric utility company in the U.S.

ServiceNow (NOW) jumped 8.78%. Bank of America reinstated coverage of the enterprise software maker with a "buy" rating and a price target of 130 dollars.

European stocks advanced further, with the DAX 40 gaining 1.49%, the CAC 40 up 0.44%, and the FTSE 100 up 1.26%.

U.S. WTI crude futures for July delivery settled 3.36 dollars higher (+3.33%) at 104.38 dollars a barrel, but eased to 102.47 dollars a barrel in early Asian trading hours on Tuesday.

U.S. President Donald Trump said he was holding off on a planned military attack on Iran scheduled for Tuesday.

Gold was up 20 dollars to 4,587 dollars an ounce.

Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar pared some of its recent gains against other major currencies, with the dollar index slipping to 98.95.

EUR/USD added 33 pips to 1.1658, and GBP/USD climbed 112 pips to 1.3433.

USD/JPY edged up 7 pips to 158.83.

AUD/USD climbed to 0.7175, while USD/CHF slipped to 0.7839 and USD/CAD edged lower to 1.3735.

Bitcoin dropped past the level of 77,000 dollars.

Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, USD/JPY climbed to 158.97. Japan’s gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 2.1% in the first quarter, faster than expected.

Meanwhile, AUD/USD retreated to 0.7140. Australia's Westpac consumer confidence index rose to 83 in May, above 79.2 expected.

EUR/USD eased to 1.1642 and GBP/USD fell to 1.3413.

Gold dropped to 4,548 dollars.

Bitcoin remained subdued at 76,685 dollars.

Expected Today

The eurozone's trade surplus for March is estimated at 35 billion euros.

U.K. jobless rate for the January-March period is expected to stay at 4.9%.

In the U.S., pending home sales are anticipated to be up 1.8% month-on-month in April.

Canada's inflation rate is estimated to accelerate to 3.0% year-on-year in April.

Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.

Crude Oil (WTI)‎ (N6)‎ intraday: bullish bias above 101.10.

Pivot:

101.10

Our preference:

Long positions above 101.10 with targets at 105.20 & 106.30 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 101.10 look for further downside with 100.25 & 98.60 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.

Trade

Gold intraday: the downside prevails.

Pivot:

4585

Our preference:

Short positions below 4585 with targets at 4510 & 4480 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 4585 look for further upside with 4605 & 4640 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50%

Trade

GBP/USD intraday: choppy.

Pivot:

1.3450

Our preference:

Short positions below 1.3450 with targets at 1.3345 & 1.3300 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 1.3450 look for further upside with 1.3475 & 1.3500 as targets.

Comment:

Intraday technical indicators are mixed and call for caution.

Trade

USD/JPY intraday: 159.25 expected.

Pivot:

158.70

Our preference:

Long positions above 158.70 with targets at 159.25 & 159.65 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 158.70 look for further downside with 158.30 & 157.90 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI advocates for further upside.

Trade

EUR/USD intraday: under pressure.

Pivot:

1.1665

Our preference:

Short positions below 1.1665 with targets at 1.1605 & 1.1575 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 1.1665 look for further upside with 1.1680 & 1.1695 as targets.

Comment:

A break below 1.1605 would trigger a drop towards 1.1575.

Trade

Silver intraday: key resistance at 78.00.

Pivot:

78.00

Our preference:

Short positions below 78.00 with targets at 74.75 & 73.80 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 78.00 look for further upside with 79.20 & 80.60 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI lacks upward momentum.

Trade

Dow Jones (CME)‎ (M6)‎ intraday: under pressure.

Pivot:

49850

Our preference:

Short positions below 49850 with targets at 49530 & 49350 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 49850 look for further upside with 50100 & 50270 as targets.

Comment:

The index currently faces a challenging resistance area at 49850.

Trade

S&P 500 (CME)‎ (M6)‎ intraday: key resistance at 7453.

Pivot:

7453

Our preference:

Short positions below 7453 with targets at 7373 & 7340 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 7453 look for further upside with 7496 & 7537 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50%

Trade

TRADING FOREIGN EXCHANGE ON MARGIN CARRIES A HIGH LEVEL OF RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT YOU COULD SUSTAIN A LOSS OF SOME OR ALL OF YOUR INITIAL INVESTMENT AND THEREFORE YOU SHOULD NOT INVEST MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. BEFORE DECIDING TO TRADE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OR CFD’S YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES, LEVEL OF EXPERIENCE, AND RISK APPETITE.

YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF ALL THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND OTHER CFD TRADING, AND SEEK ADVICE FROM AN INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS. VPFX RECOMMENDS READING THE RISK DISCLOSURE SECTION OF THE PROSPECTUS FOR ANY FINANCIAL PRODUCT MENTIONED.

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