DAILY NEWS BRIEF - MARKET OUTLOOK

October 13, 2026

Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Ventura Prime FX! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you.

Crude Oil (WTI) Gold GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/USD Silver Dow Jones (CME) S&P 500 (CME)

Market Wrap

Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Monday, the Dow Jones rose 195 points (+0.38%) to 51,850, while the S&P 500 dipped 4 points (-0.06%) to 7,807 and the Nasdaq 100 fell 218 points (-0.71%) to 30,664.

Meta Platforms (META) jumped 3.38% after unveiling Muse Wonder, its latest frontier AI model for personal and professional agents.

Apple (AAPL) rose 1.29% and Microsoft (MSFT) gained 1.14%, while Nvidia (NVDA) fell 1.29%, Amazon (AMZN) dropped 1.11%, and Tesla (TSLA) slipped 1.22%.

Semiconductor and data-storage stocks sold off after China's CXMT announced progress on next-generation DRAM architecture, with SanDisk (SNDK) falling 5.97%, Micron Technology (MU) down 3.88%, Intel (INTC) down 3.20%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) down 2.28%.

Optical and AI infrastructure names reversed Friday's bounce, with Ciena (CIEN) tumbling 9.95%, Lumentum (LITE) down 9.78%, and Coherent (COHR) down 7.87%.

Energy stocks advanced alongside oil prices, with ConocoPhillips (COP) rising 2.58%, ExxonMobil (XOM) up 1.90%, and Chevron (CVX) up 1.42%.

eBay (EBAY) gained 2.19% as strong growth in livestream shopping continued to support higher sales activity and strengthen the company's growth outlook.

Salesforce (CRM) rose 2.09% after Bank of America double-upgraded the software company to "buy" from "underperform".

This week's U.S. corporate calendar turns quickly to bank earnings, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citigroup (C) reporting quarterly results on Tuesday.

The U.S. Treasury market was closed on Monday for the Columbus Day holiday.

European stocks closed higher, with the DAX 40 rising 0.76%, the CAC 40 up 0.38%, and the FTSE 100 up 0.99%.

U.S. WTI crude futures climbed 1.89 dollars (+2.06%) to 93.74 dollars a barrel, posting a three-session rally. Oil extended gains despite Trump’s announcement of a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire and Russian diesel exports, as attacks on Saudi Arabia by Iran-backed Houthi militants fueled supply concerns.

Spot gold declined 23 dollars to 4,171 dollars an ounce.

Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar kept its strength, with the Dollar Index rising to an 18-month high. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said that the Federal Reserve should move relatively quickly to a restrictive policy stance to control broad-based inflation.

Investors are awaiting key U.S. inflation data due on Wednesday.

EUR/USD fell 43 pips to 1.1154, while USD/JPY advanced 30 pips to 158.56.

GBP/USD eased 17 pips to 1.3207, and AUD/USD declined 21 pips to 0.6958.

USD/CHF rose 52 pips to 0.8346, and USD/CAD advanced 28 pips to 1.4280.

Bitcoin slipped over 1% to 82,300 dollars.

Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, USD/JPY retreated to 158.22. Japan's producer price index rose 6.8% year-on-year in September (vs +7.6% expected).

Meanwhile, AUD/USD was little changed at 0.6959. Australia's NAB Business Confidence Index dropped to -13 in September (vs -9 estimated).

EUR/USD rebounded to 1.1177, and GBP/USD climbed to 1.3221.

Gold edged up to 4,179 dollars.

Bitcoin traded slightly higher at 82,920 dollars.

Expected Today

In the U.S., existing home sales are projected to drop 0.3% month-on-month in September.

Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.

Crude Oil (WTI)‎ (Z6)‎ intraday: the bias remains bullish.

Pivot:

90.00

Our preference:

Long positions above 90.00 with targets at 94.00 & 96.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 90.00 look for further downside with 88.40 & 87.20 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.

Trade

Gold intraday : Expect 4,240

Our pivot point is at 4,151.

Our preference:

The upside prevails as long as 4,151 is support, with 4,240 and 4,264 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Below 4,151, expect 4,112 and 4,088.

Comment:

The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 4,172 and 4,174). The Gold is trading above its upper Bollinger band (standing at 4,189).

Trade

GBP/USD intraday : Towards 1.3180

Our pivot point is at 1.3240.

Our preference:

The downside prevails as long as 1.3240 is resistance, with 1.3180 and 1.3164 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Above 1.3240, look for 1.3266 and 1.3282.

Comment:

The price stands above its 20 period moving average (1.3212) but below its 50 period moving average (1.3223).

Trade

USD/JPY intraday : Trend at a crossroads

Our pivot point is at 158.06.

Our preference:

The upside prevails as long as 158.06 is support, with 158.96 and 159.20 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Below 158.06, expect 157.65 and 157.41.

Comment:

Price is close to our pivot level; this could be the last opportunity for a reversal.

Trade

EUR/USD intraday : Target 1.1149

Our pivot point is at 1.1193.

Our preference:

Even if a technical recovery cannot be ruled out, a drop towards 1.1137 remains likely as long as 1.1193 is resistance

Alternative scenario:

Above 1.1193, look for 1.1213 and 1.1225.

Comment:

The price stands above its 20 period moving average (1.1163) but below its 50 period moving average (1.1175).

Trade

Silver intraday : Pivotal moment

Our pivot point is at 60.92.

Our preference:

The downside prevails as long as 60.92 is resistance, with 58.70 and 58.14 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Above 60.92, look for 61.86 and 62.42.

Comment:

The price is dangerously moving towards our pivot, one of the final opportunities for a reversal.

Trade

Dow Jones (CME)‎ (Z6)‎ intraday: the upside prevails.

Pivot:

51615

Our preference:

Long positions above 51615 with targets at 52250 & 52500 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 51615 look for further downside with 51210 & 50915 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI shows upside momentum.

Trade

S&P 500 (CME)‎ (Z6)‎ intraday: caution.

Pivot:

7830

Our preference:

Long positions above 7830 with targets at 7887 & 7900 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 7830 look for further downside with 7784 & 7750 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is mixed.

Trade

TRADING FOREIGN EXCHANGE ON MARGIN CARRIES A HIGH LEVEL OF RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT YOU COULD SUSTAIN A LOSS OF SOME OR ALL OF YOUR INITIAL INVESTMENT AND THEREFORE YOU SHOULD NOT INVEST MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. BEFORE DECIDING TO TRADE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OR CFD’S YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES, LEVEL OF EXPERIENCE, AND RISK APPETITE.

YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF ALL THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND OTHER CFD TRADING, AND SEEK ADVICE FROM AN INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS. VPFX RECOMMENDS READING THE RISK DISCLOSURE SECTION OF THE PROSPECTUS FOR ANY FINANCIAL PRODUCT MENTIONED.

VPFX is the trading name for Ventura Prime FX Limited with registration number LL16224 registered in Labuan F.T., Malaysia.

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