DAILY NEWS BRIEF - MARKET OUTLOOK

September 28, 2026

Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Ventura Prime FX! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you.

Crude Oil (WTI) Gold GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/USD Silver Dow Jones (CME) S&P 500 (CME)

Market Wrap

Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Friday, U.S. stocks advanced, with the S&P 500 gaining 39 points (+0.51%) to 7,743, the Nasdaq 100 up 129 points (+0.42%) to 30,608, and the Dow Jones up 478 points (+0.93%) to 51,828.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield eased 4.1 basis points to 5.167% after charging higher for two straight sessions.

Microsoft (MSFT) jumped 3.66% and Apple (AAPL) rose 1.53%, while Meta Platforms (META) retreated 3.31% and Tesla (TSLA) dropped 1.57%.

Most semiconductor names advanced, with ON Semiconductor (ON) rising 5.54%, Qualcomm (QCOM) up 3.97%, and Applied Materials (AMAT) up 2.27%.

Micron Technology (MU) closed 0.16% higher. The chipmaker is scheduled to report quarterly results after the market close on Wednesday (September 30).

However, Intel (INTC) fell 3.45%.

Dell Technologies (DELL) jumped 5.54% after unveiling a 999-dollar XPS laptop built around Google’s Gemini artificial intelligence (AI) and Android integration.

Bloom Energy (BE) rose 8.27% after Oracle reaffirmed its commitment to a 2.8-gigawatt fuel-cell project with the company.

Akamai Technologies (AKAM) gained 3.20% after announcing a seven-year cloud computing agreement with Anthropic worth 11.6 billion dollars.

In Europe, the DAX 40 advanced 0.56% and the FTSE 100 was up 0.14%, while the CAC 40 dipped 0.04%.

Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump said he rejected an Iranian proposal to end fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, adding that the U.S. has total control of the strait.

In early Asian trading hours on Monday, U.S. WTI crude futures added 1% to 93.51 dollars a barrel, and spot gold eased back to 4,265 dollars an ounce.

Market Wrap: Forex

On Friday, the yen surged, with USD/JPY plunging 154 pips to 157.30. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he discussed the desirability of a strong yen with Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama.

Regarding U.S. economic data, durable goods orders were unchanged in August (vs -0.4% expected).

In early Asian trading hours on Monday, USD/JPY traded higher to 157.65.

EUR/USD traded lower to 1.1380, GBP/USD dipped to 1.3229, and AUD/USD eased to 0.7013.

USD/CHF climbed further to 0.8296, and USD/CAD was up to 1.4153.

Bitcoin was little changed at 84,100 dollars.

Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, EUR/USD edged higher to 1.1388, and GBP/USD rebounded to 1.3242.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY climbed to 157.75.

Gold extended its decline to 4,208 dollars, its lowest level since early August.

Bitcoin fell to 83,489 dollars.

Expected Today

In the U.S., the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to drop to 1.0 in September.

Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.

Crude Oil (WTI)‎ (X6)‎ intraday: caution.

Pivot:

94.65

Our preference:

Short positions below 94.65 with targets at 91.25 & 89.75 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 94.65 look for further upside with 96.75 & 98.00 as targets.

Comment:

As long as 94.65 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

Trade

Gold intraday : Decline at a crossroads

Our pivot point is at 4,264.

Our preference:

The downside prevails as long as 4,264 is resistance, with 4,162 and 4,136 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Above 4,264, look for 4,308 and 4,335.

Comment:

The approach toward our first target represents a key level to monitor, it may trigger pressure for a pullback, though a firm close below this threshold could lead prices lower.

Trade

GBP/USD intraday : Expect 1.3265

Our pivot point is at 1.3214.

Our preference:

The upside prevails as long as 1.3214 is support, with 1.3265 and 1.3278 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Below 1.3214, expect 1.3192 and 1.3178.

Comment:

The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.3240 and 1.3238).

Trade

USD/JPY intraday : Aim at 157.20

Our pivot point is at 158.20.

Our preference:

Even if a technical recovery cannot be ruled out, a drop towards 156.94 remains likely as long as 158.20 is resistance

Alternative scenario:

Above 158.20, look for 158.64 and 158.90.

Comment:

The next move hinges on a break of support or resistance level.

Trade

EUR/USD intraday : Trend at a crossroads

Our pivot point is at 1.1396.

Our preference:

The downside prevails as long as 1.1396 is resistance, with 1.1354 and 1.1343 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Above 1.1396, look for 1.1414 and 1.1426.

Comment:

Price is close to our pivot level; this could be the last opportunity for a reversal.

Trade

Silver intraday : Key support level approaches

Our pivot point is at 63.87.

Our preference:

The downside prevails as long as 63.87 is resistance, with 61.19 and 60.56 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Above 63.87, look for 64.95 and 65.59.

Comment:

As prices close in on our first target, this level may spark a pullback. However, a definitive break below it could pave the way for a deeper decline.

Trade

Dow Jones (CME)‎ (Z6)‎ intraday: intraday support around 51835.

Pivot:

51835

Our preference:

Long positions above 51835 with targets at 52230 & 52380 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 51835 look for further downside with 51670 & 51480 as targets.

Comment:

Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Trade

S&P 500 (CME)‎ (Z6)‎ intraday: caution.

Pivot:

7764

Our preference:

Long positions above 7764 with targets at 7811 & 7848 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 7764 look for further downside with 7740 & 7707 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is mixed and calls for caution.

Trade

TRADING FOREIGN EXCHANGE ON MARGIN CARRIES A HIGH LEVEL OF RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT YOU COULD SUSTAIN A LOSS OF SOME OR ALL OF YOUR INITIAL INVESTMENT AND THEREFORE YOU SHOULD NOT INVEST MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. BEFORE DECIDING TO TRADE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OR CFD’S YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES, LEVEL OF EXPERIENCE, AND RISK APPETITE.

YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF ALL THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND OTHER CFD TRADING, AND SEEK ADVICE FROM AN INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS. VPFX RECOMMENDS READING THE RISK DISCLOSURE SECTION OF THE PROSPECTUS FOR ANY FINANCIAL PRODUCT MENTIONED.

VPFX is the trading name for Ventura Prime FX Limited with registration number LL16224 registered in Labuan F.T., Malaysia.

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