Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Ventura Prime FX! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you.
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| DAILY NEWS BRIEF - MARKET OUTLOOK |
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| Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Ventura Prime FX! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you. |
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On Friday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hit record highs led by gains in tech, notably Intel.
The S&P 500 advanced 56pts (+0.8%) to 7165 and the Nasdaq 100 rose 521pts (+1.95%) to 27303. On the other hand, the Dow fell 79pts (-0.16%) to 49230. On the sector front, the outperforming sectors were Technology (XLK), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), and Materials (XLB) while Communication Services (XLC), Health Care (XLV), and Industrials (XLI) underperformed the most.
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U.S. Economic Developments: |
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The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for April fell to 49.8, down from a preliminary 47.6 and 53.3 in March.
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Intel (INTC) surged 23.60% after quarterly results smashed expectations and current quarter guidance topped estimates. Semiconductor peers rallied, with Nvidia (NVDA) trading 4.32% higher and AMD +13.91%.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) gained 5.17% after Taiwanese regulators said they would relax limits on funds’ exposure to individual stocks.
Amazon.com (AMZN) rose 3.49% and Meta Platforms (META) gained 2.41% after Meta said it will use tens of millions of Amazon’s Graviton chips for agentic AI workloads. Amazon is also backing nuclear startup X-Energy’s $1.02 billion IPO.
Charter Communications (CHTR) plunged 25.50% on weaker-than-expected Q1 revenue, subscriber losses in both internet and video, and EPS that missed estimates.
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At the European close, the major indices in the region finished in negative territory. Germany's Dax fell 26pts (-0.11%) to 24128, France's Cac 40 dropped 69pts (-0.84%) to 8157, and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 slid 77pts (-0.75%) to 10379.
U.K. retail sales rose 0.7% month-on-month in March (vs. +0.2% expected), after a revised - 0.6% in February (previously - 0.4%). Germany’s Ifo business climate index fell to 84.4 in April (vs. 85.4 expected), down from 86.4 in March.
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Global Macro, FX & Commodities: |
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Rates & Risk Sentiment:
The VIX slid 0.63pts (-3.26%) to 18.68 and the US 10 year yield declined to 4.306%.
Precious Metals & Crude:
Gold rose 13.61 dollars (+0.29%) to 4706.3 and Silver gained 0.39 dollars (+0.51%) to 75.81.
WTI Crude Oil retreated 0.58 dollars (-0.61%) to 95.27.
The Dollar & Majors:
The dollar index fell 0.26pts (-0.26%) to 98.512.
EUR/USD gained 34pips (+0.29%) to 1.1717.
GBP/USD advanced 60pips (+0.45%) to 1.3527.
USD/JPY dropped 31pips (-0.19%) to 159.4. Japan’s S&P Global Composite PMI preliminary reading was 52.4 in April (vs. 51.4 expected), down from 53.0 in March. Japan’s core CPI accelerated to 1.8% year-on-year in March (vs. 2.0% expected), up from 1.6% in February.
USD/CHF retreated 12pips (-0.15%) to 0.7848.
AUD/USD rose 23pips (+0.32%) to 0.7151.
USD/CAD slipped 27pips (-0.2%) to 1.367. In Canada, according to a preliminary reading, retail sales rose 0.6% on month in March (vs.0.2% forecasted) and down from 0.9% in February.
Digital Assets:
Bitcoin fell 385 dollars (-0.49%) to 77535 and Ethereum dropped 9 dollars (-0.39%) to 2317.
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Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out. |
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| S&P 500 (CME) (M6) Intraday: turning up. |
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| Pivot: |
| 7170 |
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| Our preference: |
| Long positions above 7170 with targets at 7220 & 7245 in extension. |
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| Alternative scenario: |
| Below 7170 look for further downside with 7135 & 7115 as targets. |
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| Comment: |
| The next resistances are at 7220 and then at 7245. |
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| EUR/USD intraday : as long as 1.1699 is support look for 1.1767 |
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| Our pivot point is at 1.1699. |
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| Our preference: |
| As long as 1.1699 is support look for 1.1767 |
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| Alternative scenario: |
| Below 1.1699, expect 1.1675 and 1.1661. |
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| Comment: |
| The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and positive. The price could retrace. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.1714 and 1.1696). |
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| GBP/USD intraday : the RSI is overbought |
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| Our pivot point is at 1.3492. |
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| Our preference: |
| The upside prevails as long as 1.3492 is support |
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| Alternative scenario: |
| Below 1.3492, expect 1.3444 and 1.3416. |
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| Comment: |
| The RSI is above 70. It could mean either that the price is in a lasting uptrend or just overbought and therefore bound to correct (look for bearish divergence in this case). The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.3513 and 1.3487). |
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| USD/JPY intraday : rebound towards 160.24 |
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| Our pivot point is at 158.98. |
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| Our preference: |
| Rebound towards 160.24 |
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| Alternative scenario: |
| Below 158.98, expect 158.53 and 158.26. |
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| Comment: |
| The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and negative. The configuration is mixed. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 159.44 and 159.62). |
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| Gold Intraday: 4745 in sight. |
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| Pivot: |
| 4695 |
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| Our preference: |
| Long positions above 4695 with targets at 4745 & 4770 in extension. |
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| Alternative scenario: |
| Below 4695 look for further downside with 4675 & 4657 as targets. |
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| Comment: |
| The next resistances are at 4745 and then at 4770. |
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| Silver Intraday: towards 77.00. |
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| Pivot: |
| 75.20 |
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| Our preference: |
| Long positions above 75.20 with targets at 77.00 & 77.65 in extension. |
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| Alternative scenario: |
| Below 75.20 look for further downside with 74.20 & 73.50 as targets. |
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| Comment: |
| The next resistances are at 77.00 and then at 77.65. |
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| Crude Oil (WTI) (M6) Intraday: the downside prevails. |
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| Pivot: |
| 96.60 |
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| Our preference: |
| Short positions below 96.60 with targets at 92.40 & 91.00 in extension. |
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| Alternative scenario: |
| Above 96.60 look for further upside with 98.20 & 100.50 as targets. |
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| Comment: |
| Technically the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. |
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| Dow Jones (CME) (M6) Intraday: under pressure. |
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| Pivot: |
| 49550 |
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| Our preference: |
| Short positions below 49550 with targets at 49090 & 48870 in extension. |
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| Alternative scenario: |
| Above 49550 look for further upside with 49770 & 50000 as targets. |
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| Comment: |
| The RSI is around its neutrality area at 50% |
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TRADING FOREIGN EXCHANGE ON MARGIN CARRIES A HIGH LEVEL OF RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT YOU COULD SUSTAIN A LOSS OF SOME OR ALL OF YOUR INITIAL INVESTMENT AND THEREFORE YOU SHOULD NOT INVEST MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE.
THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. BEFORE DECIDING TO TRADE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OR CFD’S YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES, LEVEL OF EXPERIENCE, AND RISK APPETITE.
YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF ALL THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND OTHER CFD TRADING, AND SEEK ADVICE FROM AN INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS. VPFX RECOMMENDS READING THE RISK DISCLOSURE SECTION OF THE PROSPECTUS FOR ANY FINANCIAL PRODUCT MENTIONED.
VPFX is the trading name for Ventura Prime FX Limited with registration number LL16224 registered in Labuan F.T., Malaysia.
Ventura Prime FX Limited is authorised and regulated by the Labuan Financial Services Authority (LFSA). Registered Address:Kensington Gardens, No U1317, Lot 7616, Jalan Jumidar Buyong, 87000 Labuan Federal Territory, Malaysia
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