Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Ventura Prime FX! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you.
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DAILY NEWS BRIEF - MARKET OUTLOOK
August 20, 2026
 
   
 
Crude Oil (WTI)   Gold   GBP/USD   USD/JPY   EUR/USD   Silver   Dow Jones (CME)   S&P 500 (CME)  
 
 
  Market Wrap  
 
  Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities  
 
 
On Wednesday, the major U.S. indices finished mixed. The S&P 500 advanced 16 points (+0.21%) to 7,708, the Nasdaq 100 declined 65 points (-0.22%) to 29,426, and the Dow Jones gained 120 points (+0.22%) to 53,463.

The U.S. Treasury said it would at least double liquidity-support buybacks of long-dated notes and bonds from September 9, pulling the 10-year yield down about 5 basis points to roughly 4.65% and the 30-year yield nearly 9 basis points lower to around 5.20%.

The latest Federal Reserve minutes showed policymakers generally expected inflation to ease through the rest of the year but warned that price pressures could be more persistent.

Moderna (MRNA) surged 176.97% after its personalized cancer vaccine, used with Merck’s (MRK) Keytruda, showed positive late-stage melanoma-trial results, including improved recurrence-free survival. Merck gained 12.60%.

Marvell Technology (MRVL) rose 9.85% after granting Google a warrant to buy up to 58.97 million shares at 206.58 dollars each, in connection with a custom AI-chip development agreement.

Estee Lauder (EL) jumped 16.30% after reporting stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter results.

TJX Companies (TJX) declined 4.21% despite stronger-than-expected fiscal second-quarter earnings.

Target (TGT) gained 4.28% after posting solid quarterly financial results.

Toll Brothers (TOL) gained 4.00% after reporting quarterly results slightly above expectations and forecasting current-quarter home deliveries in line with estimates.

In Europe, the DAX declined 0.14%, the CAC 40 slipped 0.09%, and the FTSE 100 gained 0.14%.

In the commodities market, spot gold jumped 187 dollars (+4.31%) to 4,520 dollars, silver surged 3.28 dollars (+5.18%) to 66.58 dollars, and WTI crude oil futures fell 0.10 dollars (-0.12%) to 84.29 dollars a barrel.
 
 
  Market Wrap: Forex  
 
 
The U.S. dollar weakened sharply, with the dollar index dropping 0.84% to 98.81.

EUR/USD jumped 101 pips (+0.87%) to 1.1675.

GBP/USD advanced 70 pips (+0.52%) to 1.3599. The U.K. inflation rate rose to 2.9% year-on-year in July as expected.

USD/JPY dropped 142 pips (-0.89%) to 158.20 and USD/CHF retreated 151 pips (-1.86%) to 0.7973.

AUD/USD gained 37 pips (+0.52%) to 0.7123, while USD/CAD slipped 86 pips (-0.62%) to 1.3810.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin jumped 4,177 dollars (+6.47%) to 68,735 dollars, while Ethereum surged 214 dollars (+11.22%) to 2,126 dollars.
 
 
  Morning Trading  
 
 
In Asian trading hours, AUD/USD eased to 0.7112. Australia's employment dropped 15,800 in July, compared with +15,000 estimated. The jobless rate climbed to 4.5%, above 4.4% expected.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY rebounded to 158.54. Japan's exports rose 23.2% year-on-year in July, above 19.9% expected.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD were both steady, at 1.1675 and 1.3604 respectively.

Gold retreated to 4,490 dollars.

Bitcoin advanced to 69,800 dollars.
 
 
  Expected Today  
 
 
Germany's producer price index is estimated to be up 2.7% year-on-year in July.

In the U.S., the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index is expected to drop to 25.0 in August, while the weekly initial jobless claims are estimated at 201,000. Also, the leading index is expected to slip 0.1% month-on-month in July.

Canada's producer price index is expected to be up 12.0% year-on-year in July.
 
 
 
 
  Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.
 
 
     
 
Crude Oil (WTI)‎ (V6)‎ intraday: the bias remains bullish.
 
Pivot:
83.45
 
Our preference:
Long positions above 83.45 with targets at 85.85 & 87.00 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
Below 83.45 look for further downside with 82.25 & 81.30 as targets.
 
Comment:
A support base at 83.45 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
Trade
 
 
 
 
 
Gold intraday : Expect 4,531
 
Our pivot point is at 4,428.
 
Our preference:
The upside prevails as long as 4,428 is support, with 4,531 and 4,553 as targets
 
Alternative scenario:
Below 4,428, expect 4,391 and 4,370.
 
Comment:
The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and positive. The price is below its 20 period moving average (4,507) but above its 50 period moving average (4,449).
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
Trade
 
 
 
 
 
GBP/USD intraday : 1.3660 expected
 
Our pivot point is at 1.3572.
 
Our preference:
The upside prevails as long as 1.3572 is support, with 1.3660 and 1.3679 as targets
 
Alternative scenario:
Below 1.3572, expect 1.3540 and 1.3521.
 
Comment:
The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and positive. The price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.3606 and 1.3588).
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
Trade
 
 
 
 
 
USD/JPY intraday : Expect 157.81
 
Our pivot point is at 159.29.
 
Our preference:
The downside prevails as long as 159.29 is resistance, with 157.81 and 157.61 as targets
 
Alternative scenario:
Above 159.29, look for 159.62 and 159.82.
 
Comment:
The MACD is above its signal line and negative. The price stands above its 20 period moving average (158.31) but below its 50 period moving average (158.64).
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
Trade
 
 
 
 
 
EUR/USD intraday : Watch 1.1696
 
Our pivot point is at 1.1638.
 
Our preference:
The upside prevails as long as 1.1638 is support, with 1.1696 and 1.1708 as targets
 
Alternative scenario:
Below 1.1638, expect 1.1619 and 1.1607.
 
Comment:
The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and positive. The price is below its 20 period moving average (1.1676) but above its 50 period moving average (1.1646).
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
Trade
 
 
 
 
 
Silver intraday : Throwback or further upside?
 
Our pivot point is at 65.25.
 
Our preference:
The upside prevails as long as 65.25 is support, with 67.68 and 68.30 as targets
 
Alternative scenario:
Below 65.25, expect 64.20 and 63.58.
 
Comment:
As prices near our first target, a throwback could occur, though a clean break above could fuel further gains.
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
Trade
 
 
 
 
 
Dow Jones (CME)‎ (U6)‎ intraday: bounce.
 
Pivot:
53450
 
Our preference:
Long positions above 53450 with targets at 53780 & 54000 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
Below 53450 look for further downside with 53310 & 53080 as targets.
 
Comment:
The RSI is mixed to bullish.
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
Trade
 
 
 
 
 
S&P 500 (CME)‎ (U6)‎ intraday: aim @ 7770.
 
Pivot:
7721
 
Our preference:
Long positions above 7721 with targets at 7770 & 7790 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
Below 7721 look for further downside with 7698 & 7685 as targets.
 
Comment:
The RSI is mixed to bullish.
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
Trade
 
 
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