DAILY NEWS BRIEF - MARKET OUTLOOK

July 1, 2026

Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Ventura Prime FX! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you.

Crude Oil (WTI) Gold GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/USD Dow Jones (CME) S&P 500 (CME) Silver

Market Wrap

Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Tuesday, the last trading day of the second quarter, U.S. stocks gained further, lifting the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 136 points (+0.26%) to 52,319, a fresh record closing level.

The S&P 500 advanced 58 points (+0.79%) to 7,499, and the Nasdaq 100 was up 501 points (+1.69%) to 30,276.

For the second quarter, the S&P 500 climbed 14.87%, its biggest quarterly gain since 2020.

Mega-cap stocks closed higher as overall market sentiment continued to improve, with Apple (AAPL) rising 2.70%, Nvidia (NVDA) up 2.63%, Tesla (TSLA) up 2.13%, and Alphabet (GOOGL) up 1.05%.

Semiconductor stocks remained buoyed, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) jumping 7.68%, Marvell Technology (MRVL) up 7.25%, ON Semiconductor (ON) up 6.74%, and Intel (INTC) up 6.01%.

In after-market hours, following earnings reports, Nike (NKE) fell 1%, and Constellation Brands (STZ) was up 4%.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield jumped 8.5 basis points to 4.461%.

European stocks rebounded, with the DAX 40 rising 1.50%, the CAC 40 up 0.44%, and the FTSE 100 up 0.12%.

U.S. WTI crude futures declined 1.25 dollars (-1.77%) to 69.50 dollars a barrel.

Gold once dipped below the key 4,000-dollar level before closing at 4,007 dollars an ounce.

Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar index edged up to 101.17, halting a three-session decline.

The U.S. Labor Department reported that the number of job openings was little changed at 7.59 million in May, still higher than expected.

The Conference Board’s U.S. consumer confidence index climbed to 91.2 in June, lower than expected.

EUR/USD was largely flat at 1.1422.

USD/JPY bounced 65 pips to 162.59. This morning, the Bank of Japan Tankan large manufacturers index rose to 22 for the second quarter, far exceeding market expectations.

GBP/USD edged up 4 pips to 1.3262, and AUD/USD rose 32 pips to 0.6918.

USD/CHF added 4 pips to 0.8079.

USD/CAD slipped 13 pips to 1.4194. Canada’s gross domestic product grew 0.5% month-on-month in April (vs +0.4% expected, -0.1% in March).

Bitcoin slid over 2% to 58,480 dollars, failing to gain further traction.

Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.

Crude Oil (WTI)‎ (Q6)‎ intraday: watch 69.00.

Pivot:

70.65

Our preference:

Short positions below 70.65 with targets at 69.00 & 68.55 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 70.65 look for further upside with 71.30 & 71.85 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50%

Trade

Gold intraday: watch 3943.

Pivot:

4017

Our preference:

Short positions below 4017 with targets at 3943 & 3900 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 4017 look for further upside with 4065 & 4095 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI shows downside momentum.

Trade

GBP/USD intraday: choppy.

Pivot:

1.3225

Our preference:

Long positions above 1.3225 with targets at 1.3260 & 1.3275 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 1.3225 look for further downside with 1.3210 & 1.3190 as targets.

Comment:

Intraday technical indicators are mixed and call for caution.

Trade

USD/JPY intraday: target 162.90.

Pivot:

162.30

Our preference:

Long positions above 162.30 with targets at 162.90 & 163.10 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 162.30 look for further downside with 162.10 & 161.90 as targets.

Comment:

The break above 162.30 is a positive signal that has opened a path to 162.90.

Trade

EUR/USD intraday: choppy.

Pivot:

1.1395

Our preference:

Long positions above 1.1395 with targets at 1.1420 & 1.1435 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 1.1395 look for further downside with 1.1380 & 1.1365 as targets.

Comment:

Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Trade

Dow Jones (CME)‎ (U6)‎ intraday: intraday support around 52320.

Pivot:

52320

Our preference:

Long positions above 52320 with targets at 52760 & 53030 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 52320 look for further downside with 52130 & 51960 as targets.

Comment:

Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Trade

S&P 500 (CME)‎ (U6)‎ intraday: towards 7565.

Pivot:

7490

Our preference:

Long positions above 7490 with targets at 7565 & 7610 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 7490 look for further downside with 7450 & 7415 as targets.

Comment:

Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Trade

Silver intraday: expect 56.50.

Pivot:

58.85

Our preference:

Short positions below 58.85 with targets at 57.20 & 56.50 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 58.85 look for further upside with 59.75 & 60.45 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.

Trade

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THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT YOU COULD SUSTAIN A LOSS OF SOME OR ALL OF YOUR INITIAL INVESTMENT AND THEREFORE YOU SHOULD NOT INVEST MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE.

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