DAILY NEWS BRIEF - MARKET OUTLOOK

August 19, 2026

Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Ventura Prime FX! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you.

Crude Oil (WTI) Gold GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/USD Silver Dow Jones (CME) S&P 500 (CME)

Market Wrap

Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Tuesday, U.S. stocks remained under pressure, with the S&P 500 falling 53 points (-0.69%) to 7,691, the Nasdaq 100 down 504 points (-1.68%) to 29,490, and the Dow Jones down 116 points (-0.22%) to 53,343.

Investors felt uneasy about global sovereign bond yields rising to multidecade highs. For example, the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.335%, the highest level since 2002. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose to 2.941%, a 30-year high.

Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year yield rose 1.8 basis points to 4.708%.

Meta (META) fell 4.45%, and Nvidia (NVDA) dropped 2.34%, while Apple (AAPL) closed 1.45% higher.

Semiconductor stocks fell across the board, with Marvell Technology (MRVL) dropping 7.82%, Micron Technology (MU) down 7.02%, and Intel (INTC) down 6.58%.

Arm Holdings (ARM) lost 6.67%, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) declined 4.27%, and Broadcom (AVGO) was down 3.17%.

Data-storage stocks also came under pressure, with Seagate Technology (STX) retreating 9.16%, SanDisk (SNDK) down 9.01%, and Western Digital (WDC) down 7.43%.

Other AI infrastructure names also sold off, with CoreWeave (CRWV) tumbling 12.10%, Lumentum (LITE) down 9.90%, and Nebius Group (NBIS) down 7.60%.

Home Depot (HD) closed 0.12% lower. The home improvement retailer posted better-than-expected quarterly results, and reaffirmed its full-year guidance amid "frozen housing market conditions".

In Europe, the DAX 40 fell 0.80%, the CAC 40 dropped 0.82%, while the FTSE 100 closed 0.07% higher.

U.S. WTI crude futures dipped 44 cents to 84.06 dollars a barrel.

Spot gold pulled back 82 dollars (-1.86%) to 4,334 dollars an ounce.

Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar held steady, with EUR/USD dipping 7 pips to 1.1572, and USD/JPY gaining 21 pips to 159.64.

U.S. housing starts decreased 12.4% month-on-month in July (vs -4.7% expected, +19.0% in June). Industrial production grew 0.2% month-on-month in July, slower than expected.

Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment index rose to 34.2 in August, higher than expected.

GBP/USD slipped 17 pips to 1.3526. In the U.K., the latest jobless rate remained stable at 4.9%.

AUD/USD fell 21 pips to 0.7082.

USD/CHF advanced 19 pips to 0.8124, and USD/CAD was up 27 pips to 1.3900.

Bitcoin stayed buoyed, challenging the level of 65,000 dollars.

Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, USD/JPY retreated to 159.36. Japan's machinery orders rose 9.7% month-on-month in June, above 7.8% expected.

Meanwhile, EUR/USD climbed to 1.1582 and GBP/USD advanced to 1.3537.

Gold rebounded to 4,359 dollars.

Bitcoin eased to 64,309 dollars.

Expected Today

U.K. inflation rate is expected to accelerate to 2.9% year-on-year in July.

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve will release its latest FOMC meeting minutes.

Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.

Crude Oil (WTI)‎ (V6)‎ intraday: intraday support around 83.30.

Pivot:

83.30

Our preference:

Long positions above 83.30 with targets at 85.85 & 87.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 83.30 look for further downside with 82.25 & 81.30 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.

Trade

Gold intraday : Expect 4,297

Our pivot point is at 4,386.

Our preference:

The downside prevails as long as 4,386 is resistance, with 4,297 and 4,276 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Above 4,386, look for 4,421 and 4,442.

Comment:

The MACD is above its signal line and negative. The price stands above its 20 period moving average (4,345) but below its 50 period moving average (4,371).

Trade

GBP/USD intraday : Aim at 1.3497

Our pivot point is at 1.3565.

Our preference:

The downside prevails as long as 1.3565 is resistance, with 1.3497 and 1.3478 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Above 1.3565, look for 1.3597 and 1.3617.

Comment:

A break of the next support or resistance level will be decisive for the next expected price movement.

Trade

USD/JPY intraday : Look for 159.05

Our pivot point is at 159.82.

Our preference:

Target 158.85

Alternative scenario:

Above 159.82, look for 160.15 and 160.35.

Comment:

The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 159.55 and 159.60).

Trade

EUR/USD intraday : Trend at a crossroads

Our pivot point is at 1.1590.

Our preference:

The downside prevails as long as 1.1590 is resistance, with 1.1548 and 1.1536 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Above 1.1590, look for 1.1610 and 1.1622.

Comment:

The asset's price is approaching our pivot level at a critical juncture, leaving little room for the asset to reverse its current trajectory.

Trade

Silver intraday : Decline at a crossroads

Our pivot point is at 64.64.

Our preference:

The downside prevails as long as 64.64 is resistance, with 62.18 and 61.59 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Above 64.64, look for 65.65 and 66.25.

Comment:

Prices are now edging toward our first target. Should this level be reached, a pullback is likely to surface; yet a convincing break below it could open the door to further losses.

Trade

Dow Jones (CME)‎ (U6)‎ intraday: look for 53080.

Pivot:

53720

Our preference:

Short positions below 53720 with targets at 53310 & 53080 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 53720 look for further upside with 54000 & 54140 as targets.

Comment:

A break below 53310 would trigger a drop towards 53080.

Trade

S&P 500 (CME)‎ (U6)‎ intraday: under pressure.

Pivot:

7742

Our preference:

Short positions below 7742 with targets at 7685 & 7649 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 7742 look for further upside with 7762 & 7790 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is bearish and calls for further decline.

Trade

TRADING FOREIGN EXCHANGE ON MARGIN CARRIES A HIGH LEVEL OF RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT YOU COULD SUSTAIN A LOSS OF SOME OR ALL OF YOUR INITIAL INVESTMENT AND THEREFORE YOU SHOULD NOT INVEST MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. BEFORE DECIDING TO TRADE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OR CFD’S YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES, LEVEL OF EXPERIENCE, AND RISK APPETITE.

YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF ALL THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND OTHER CFD TRADING, AND SEEK ADVICE FROM AN INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS. VPFX RECOMMENDS READING THE RISK DISCLOSURE SECTION OF THE PROSPECTUS FOR ANY FINANCIAL PRODUCT MENTIONED.

VPFX is the trading name for Ventura Prime FX Limited with registration number LL16224 registered in Labuan F.T., Malaysia.

Ventura Prime FX Limited is authorised and regulated by the Labuan Financial Services Authority (LFSA). Registered Address:Kensington Gardens, No U1317, Lot 7616, Jalan Jumidar Buyong, 87000 Labuan Federal Territory, Malaysia

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