DAILY NEWS BRIEF - MARKET OUTLOOK

August 17, 2026

Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Ventura Prime FX! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you.

Crude Oil (WTI) Gold USD/JPY EUR/USD Dow Jones (CME) S&P 500 (CME) GBP/USD Silver

Market Wrap

Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Friday, the S&P 500 dipped from its record levels, easing 13 points (-0.17%) to 7,785. The Nasdaq 100 declined 38 points (-0.13%) to 30,046, and the Dow Jones was down 107 points (-0.20%) to 53,732.

SanDisk (SNDK) advanced a further 7.39% on Friday, tallying a weekly gain of over 35%. JPMorgan rated the stock as “overweight” with a price target of 2,250 dollars.

Semiconductor stocks closed mixed. Micron Technology (MU) charged 2.30% higher, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) jumped 6.50%, while Broadcom (AVGO) slid 5.94%, and Intel (INTC) was down 1.97%.

Applied Materials (AMAT) fell 5.12%. Though the maker of chip-manufacturing equipment gave an upbeat quarterly revenue forecast, investors seemed not impressed.

Alphabet (GOOGL) closed 0.13% lower. According to a regulatory filing, Berkshire Hathaway sharply increased its stake in Alphabet to 106 million shares worth about 38 billion dollars by the end of June.

Reddit (RDDT) surged 12.63% after it was announced that the social media platform will join the S&P 500 on August 18.

Fox Corp (FOXA) gained 5.49% after being upgraded to “overweight” by JPMorgan.

The U.S. 10-year yield rebounded 4.3 basis points to 4.692%.

In Europe, the DAX 40 gained 0.53%, while the CAC 40 declined 0.16%, and the FTSE 100 was down 0.21%.

U.S. WTI crude futures added 1.15 dollars (+1.42%) to 82.40 dollars a barrel, and spot gold was up 24 dollars to 4,376 dollars an ounce.

Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar softened against major currencies, with EUR/USD rising 40 pips to 1.1567, and USD/JPY dipping 14 pips to 159.34.

U.S. data showed that retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6% month-on-month in July (vs +0.1% expected, +0.2% in June). The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index dropped to 51.0 in August, lower than expected.

GBP/USD advanced 50 pips to 1.3535, and AUD/USD rose 28 pips to 0.7082.

USD/CAD dropped 55 pips to 1.3875.

Over the weekend, Bitcoin remained subdued at levels below 63,000 dollars.

Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.

Crude Oil (WTI)‎ (V6)‎ intraday: caution.

Pivot:

82.00

Our preference:

Short positions below 82.00 with targets at 80.60 & 79.90 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 82.00 look for further upside with 82.65 & 83.30 as targets.

Comment:

The index currently faces a challenging resistance area at 82.00.

Trade

Gold intraday : 4,444 expected

Our pivot point is at 4,360.

Our preference:

The upside prevails as long as 4,360 is support, with 4,444 and 4,466 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Below 4,360, expect 4,324 and 4,303.

Comment:

The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 4,383 and 4,361).

Trade

USD/JPY intraday : 158.66 in sight

Our pivot point is at 159.33.

Our preference:

The downside prevails as long as 159.33 is resistance, with 158.66 and 158.48 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Above 159.33, look for 159.63 and 159.80.

Comment:

The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 159.27 and 159.23).

Trade

EUR/USD intraday : Watching for a Trigger Above Resistance

Our pivot point is at 1.1539.

Our preference:

The upside prevails as long as 1.1539 is support, with 1.1589 and 1.1602 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Below 1.1539, expect 1.1519 and 1.1506.

Comment:

Prices are now within reach of our first target, a level that could invite the price to consolidate. On the flip side, a clear break above it may well sustain the upward move.

Trade

Dow Jones (CME)‎ (U6)‎ intraday: intraday support around 53700.

Pivot:

53700

Our preference:

Long positions above 53700 with targets at 54140 & 54340 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 53700 look for further downside with 53490 & 53340 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.

Trade

S&P 500 (CME)‎ (U6)‎ intraday: bullish bias above 7793.

Pivot:

7793

Our preference:

Long positions above 7793 with targets at 7838 & 7860 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 7793 look for further downside with 7764 & 7738 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI calls for a rebound.

Trade

GBP/USD intraday : Throwback or further upside?

Our pivot point is at 1.3500.

Our preference:

The upside prevails as long as 1.3500 is support, with 1.3569 and 1.3589 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Below 1.3500, expect 1.3467 and 1.3448.

Comment:

Price is consolidating just below a key resistance level, setting the stage for an upside attempt.

Trade

Silver intraday : Target level as a potential turning point

Our pivot point is at 63.90.

Our preference:

The upside prevails as long as 63.90 is support, with 66.27 and 66.90 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Below 63.90, expect 62.84 and 62.21.

Comment:

Prices are now within reach of our first target, a level that could invite the price to consolidate. On the flip side, a clear break above it may well sustain the upward move.

Trade

TRADING FOREIGN EXCHANGE ON MARGIN CARRIES A HIGH LEVEL OF RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT YOU COULD SUSTAIN A LOSS OF SOME OR ALL OF YOUR INITIAL INVESTMENT AND THEREFORE YOU SHOULD NOT INVEST MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. BEFORE DECIDING TO TRADE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OR CFD’S YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES, LEVEL OF EXPERIENCE, AND RISK APPETITE.

YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF ALL THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND OTHER CFD TRADING, AND SEEK ADVICE FROM AN INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS. VPFX RECOMMENDS READING THE RISK DISCLOSURE SECTION OF THE PROSPECTUS FOR ANY FINANCIAL PRODUCT MENTIONED.

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