DAILY NEWS BRIEF - MARKET OUTLOOK

September 18, 2026

Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Ventura Prime FX! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you.

Crude Oil (WTI) Gold GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/USD Silver Dow Jones (CME) S&P 500 (CME)

Market Wrap

Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Thursday, the Nasdaq 100 rose 501 points (+1.73%) to 29,446, the S&P 500 gained 85 points (+1.14%) to 7,637, and the Dow Jones added 316 points (+0.61%) to 51,778, as equities bounced back a day after the Federal Reserve's first rate hike since 2023, while oil prices and Treasury yields eased.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield retreated 8.1 basis points to 4.939%, and U.S. WTI crude futures dipped 52 cents to 101.91 dollars a barrel.

Mega-caps led the rebound, with Nvidia (NVDA) rising 2.54%, Amazon (AMZN) up 2.13%, Microsoft (MSFT) up 1.52%, and Meta Platforms (META) up 1.34%.

Dow Jones constituents that outperformed included Caterpillar (CAT) rising 2.02%, Nike (NKE) up 1.62%, and 3M (MMM) up 1.27%.

Semiconductor stocks outperformed the market, with Intel (INTC) jumping 7.67%, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) up 6.36%, Marvell Technology (MRVL) up 4.81%, and Arm Holdings (ARM) up 8.57%.

Also, Micron Technology (MU) advanced 5.50%, and SanDisk (SNDK) climbed 6.21%.

Coinbase (COIN) advanced 5.75% and Robinhood Markets (HOOD) was up 5.16%, after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) unveiled a favorable policy to facilitate tokenized stock trading.

Generac (GNRC) surged 18.34%. The electrical equipment maker obtained a long-term contract worth 2.4 billion dollars to supply backup generators for Amazon.com's data centers.

European stocks also closed in positive territory, with the DAX 40 adding 0.70%, the CAC 40 up 0.57%, and the FTSE 100 up 1.19%.

Spot gold rebounded 77 dollars to 4,341 dollars an ounce.

Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar took a pause after rallying for five straight sessions, with EUR/USD edging up 11 pips to 1.1476, and USD/JPY declining 29 pips to 155.96.

GBP/USD slipped 23 pips to 1.3359, posting a four-session decline. As expected, the Bank of England held interest rates steady, but warned that the prolonged Middle East conflict may require tighter policy.

AUD/USD rebounded 23 pips to 0.7111, while USD/CHF dipped 12 pips to 0.8246.

Bitcoin managed to stay above 76,000 dollars.

Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, USD/JPY ticked up to 156.95. The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, as expected.

Separately, Japan's data showed that the core inflation rate dipped to 1.7% year-on-year in August (vs 1.8% expected).

Meanwhile, EUR/USD and GBP/USD were both steady, at 1.1480 and 1.3359 respectively.

Gold climbed to 4,350 dollars.

Bitcoin advanced to 76,922 dollars.

Expected Today

U.K. retail sales are expected to drop 0.2% month-on-month in August.

Germany's producer price index is estimated to be up 4.1% year-on-year in August.

In the U.S., industrial production is anticipated to increase by 0.3% month-on-month in August, while the leading index is estimated to grow 0.1%.

Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.

Crude Oil (WTI)‎ (X6)‎ intraday: the downside prevails.

Pivot:

97.95

Our preference:

Short positions below 97.95 with targets at 94.65 & 93.30 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 97.95 look for further upside with 99.50 & 101.60 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is bearish and calls for further decline.

Trade

Gold intraday : Target 4,458

Our pivot point is at 4,348.

Our preference:

The upside prevails as long as 4,348 is support, with 4,458 and 4,490 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Below 4,348, expect 4,296 and 4,264.

Comment:

The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 4,364 and 4,353).

Trade

GBP/USD intraday : Pivot threshold in sight

Our pivot point is at 1.3376.

Our preference:

The downside prevails as long as 1.3376 is resistance, with 1.3326 and 1.3314 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Above 1.3376, look for 1.3396 and 1.3408.

Comment:

The asset's price is approaching our pivot level at a critical juncture, leaving little room for the asset to reverse its current trajectory.

Trade

USD/JPY intraday : the RSI is overbought

Our pivot point is at 157.04.

Our preference:

The upside prevails as long as 157.04 is support, with 158.54 and 158.90 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Below 157.04, expect 156.45 and 156.09.

Comment:

The RSI is above 70. It could mean either that the price is in a lasting uptrend or just overbought and therefore bound to correct (look for bearish divergence in this case). The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. The price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 156.75 and 156.20).

Trade

EUR/USD intraday : Watch 1.1452

Our pivot point is at 1.1512.

Our preference:

The downside prevails as long as 1.1512 is resistance, with 1.1452 and 1.1442 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Above 1.1512, look for 1.1527 and 1.1537.

Comment:

Price is moving sideways, but a directional move may be near.

Trade

Silver intraday : Throwback or further upside?

Our pivot point is at 64.63.

Our preference:

The upside prevails as long as 64.63 is support, with 67.25 and 67.95 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Below 64.63, expect 63.47 and 62.78.

Comment:

As prices near our first target, a throwback could occur, though a clean break above could fuel further gains.

Trade

Dow Jones (CME)‎ (Z6)‎ intraday: watch 52700.

Pivot:

52040

Our preference:

Long positions above 52040 with targets at 52700 & 53030 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 52040 look for further downside with 51830 & 51600 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI advocates for further upside.

Trade

S&P 500 (CME)‎ (Z6)‎ intraday: further advance.

Pivot:

7648

Our preference:

Long positions above 7648 with targets at 7750 & 7792 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 7648 look for further downside with 7621 & 7575 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI shows upside momentum.

Trade

TRADING FOREIGN EXCHANGE ON MARGIN CARRIES A HIGH LEVEL OF RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT YOU COULD SUSTAIN A LOSS OF SOME OR ALL OF YOUR INITIAL INVESTMENT AND THEREFORE YOU SHOULD NOT INVEST MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. BEFORE DECIDING TO TRADE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OR CFD’S YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES, LEVEL OF EXPERIENCE, AND RISK APPETITE.

YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF ALL THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND OTHER CFD TRADING, AND SEEK ADVICE FROM AN INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS. VPFX RECOMMENDS READING THE RISK DISCLOSURE SECTION OF THE PROSPECTUS FOR ANY FINANCIAL PRODUCT MENTIONED.

VPFX is the trading name for Ventura Prime FX Limited with registration number LL16224 registered in Labuan F.T., Malaysia.

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