DAILY NEWS BRIEF - MARKET OUTLOOK

July 6, 2026

Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Ventura Prime FX! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you.

Crude Oil (WTI) Gold GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/USD Silver Dow Jones (CME) S&P 500 (CME)

Market Wrap

Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Friday, U.S. stock markets were closed for the Independence Day holiday. In early Asian trading hours on Monday, the Nasdaq 100 index futures rebounded over 1%.

European stocks managed to close higher on Friday, with the DAX 40 gaining 0.78%, the CAC 40 up 0.39%, and the FTSE 100 up 0.25%.

At the opening of Monday’s session, U.S. WTI crude futures eased to 68.38 dollars a barrel. Oil-producing group OPEC+ stated on Sunday that they would increase oil output quotas from August.

Gold stepped higher to 4,190 dollars an ounce.

Market Wrap: Forex

At the opening of Monday’s session, the U.S. dollar was stable, with the dollar index trading at 100.86.

EUR/USD held at 1.1438.

USD/JPY was steady at 161.45. On Friday, the Japanese finance minister pointed out that Japanese and U.S. authorities are in regular contact on foreign exchange issues.

Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield touched a 30-year high on Friday, as investors continued to digest the Japanese prime minister’s new economic blueprint.

GBP/USD stayed elevated at 1.3350, while AUD/USD was little changed at 0.6937.

Bitcoin built up further momentum, climbing back to 63,900 dollars.

Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, EUR/USD and GBP/USD were both steady, at 1.1434 and 1.3346 respectively.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY advanced to 161.77.

Gold retreated to 4,168 dollars.

Bitcoin eased to 63,373 dollars.

Expected Today

The eurozone's retail sales are estimated to increase by 0.1% month-on-month in May, while producer price index is expected to be up 5.9% year-on-year.

Germany's factory orders are estimated to grow 1.2% month-on-month in May.

In the U.S., the ISM services purchasing managers index is expected to slip to 54.0 in June.

Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.

Crude Oil (WTI)‎ (Q6)‎ intraday: consolidation in place.

Pivot:

69.25

Our preference:

Short positions below 69.25 with targets at 67.85 & 67.05 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 69.25 look for further upside with 69.85 & 70.15 as targets.

Comment:

As long as 69.25 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

Trade

Gold intraday: consolidation in place.

Pivot:

4200

Our preference:

Short positions below 4200 with targets at 4125 & 4100 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 4200 look for further upside with 4230 & 4255 as targets.

Comment:

As long as 4200 is resistance, likely decline to 4125.

Trade

GBP/USD intraday: capped by a negative trend line.

Pivot:

1.3360

Our preference:

Short positions below 1.3360 with targets at 1.3315 & 1.3295 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 1.3360 look for further upside with 1.3385 & 1.3400 as targets.

Comment:

As long as the resistance at 1.3360 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.3315 remains high.

Trade

USD/JPY intraday: further advance.

Pivot:

161.75

Our preference:

Long positions above 161.75 with targets at 162.60 & 162.80 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 161.75 look for further downside with 161.40 & 161.20 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.

Trade

EUR/USD intraday: towards 1.1400.

Pivot:

1.1435

Our preference:

Short positions below 1.1435 with targets at 1.1400 & 1.1385 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 1.1435 look for further upside with 1.1455 & 1.1470 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.

Trade

Silver intraday: consolidation.

Pivot:

63.25

Our preference:

Short positions below 63.25 with targets at 61.00 & 60.30 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 63.25 look for further upside with 64.30 & 65.35 as targets.

Comment:

As long as 63.25 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

Trade

Dow Jones (CME)‎ (U6)‎ intraday: key resistance at 53400.

Pivot:

53400

Our preference:

Short positions below 53400 with targets at 53080 & 52920 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 53400 look for further upside with 53490 & 53600 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI lacks momentum.

Trade

S&P 500 (CME)‎ (U6)‎ intraday: consolidation.

Pivot:

7577

Our preference:

Short positions below 7577 with targets at 7538 & 7515 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 7577 look for further upside with 7593 & 7615 as targets.

Comment:

As long as 7577 is resistance, expect a return to 7538.

Trade

TRADING FOREIGN EXCHANGE ON MARGIN CARRIES A HIGH LEVEL OF RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT YOU COULD SUSTAIN A LOSS OF SOME OR ALL OF YOUR INITIAL INVESTMENT AND THEREFORE YOU SHOULD NOT INVEST MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. BEFORE DECIDING TO TRADE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OR CFD’S YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES, LEVEL OF EXPERIENCE, AND RISK APPETITE.

YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF ALL THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND OTHER CFD TRADING, AND SEEK ADVICE FROM AN INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS. VPFX RECOMMENDS READING THE RISK DISCLOSURE SECTION OF THE PROSPECTUS FOR ANY FINANCIAL PRODUCT MENTIONED.

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