DAILY NEWS BRIEF - MARKET OUTLOOK

September 17, 2026

Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Ventura Prime FX! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you.

Crude Oil (WTI) Gold GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/USD Silver Dow Jones (CME) S&P 500 (CME)

Market Wrap

Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 fell 33 points (-0.45%) to 7,551, and the Dow Jones dropped 631 points (-1.21%) to 51,461, while the Nasdaq 100 edged up 7 points (+0.02%) to 28,945, as equities faded into the close after the Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25-basis-point interest-rate hike.

Fed policymakers voted unanimously to lift the federal funds target rate to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, the first rate hike since 2023. They also penciled in at least one more hike this year.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed a further 1.4 basis points to 5.020%. Meanwhile, traders are seeing a 40% probability of another 25-basis-point hike in October, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Mega-caps split after the Fed’s rate decision: Nvidia (NVDA) closed 0.82% higher and Meta Platforms (META) gained 0.46%, while Microsoft (MSFT) fell 1.37% and Amazon (AMZN) was down 0.99%.

Most of the Dow Jones constituents closed lower, with International Business Machines (IBM) losing 4.38%, Boeing (BA) down 3.69%, and Verizon Communications (VZ) down 3.28%.

Energy stocks retreated alongside oil prices, with ConocoPhillips (COP) losing 6.15%, APA Corp (APA) down 5.53%, and ExxonMobil (XOM) down 3.54%.

Financial stocks also underperformed the market, with Goldman Sachs (GS) falling 3.96%, American Express (AXP) down 3.70%, and Wells Fargo (WFC) down 2.98%.

Bitcoin and crypto-related stocks remained under pressure after the Clarity Act crypto regulatory bill was blocked by the U.S. Senate, with Coinbase (COIN) dropping 4.42%, Strategy (MSTR) down 2.64%, and Robinhood Markets (HOOD) down 5.46%.

Meanwhile, semiconductor stocks showed resilience, with Intel (INTC) rising 4.03%, Marvell Technology (MRVL) up 3.61%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) up 1.65%.

European stocks closed higher, with the DAX 40 adding 0.53%, the CAC 40 up 0.62%, and the FTSE 100 up 0.28%.

U.S. WTI crude futures retreated 3.40 dollars (-3.21%) to 102.43 dollars a barrel.

Spot gold remained in a downtrend, declining 29 dollars to 4,264 dollars an ounce.

Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar was boosted by the Fed’s rate hike and the projection of at least one more increase by year-end.

At the same time, U.S. data showed that retail sales grew 1.2% month-on-month in August (vs +0.8% expected, -0.5% in July).

USD/JPY jumped 116 pips to 156.26. On Friday, the Bank of Japan will decide on interest rates, with a 25-basis-point hike widely expected.

EUR/USD fell 79 pips to 1.1465, GBP/USD dropped 97 pips to 1.3381, and AUD/USD was down 44 pips to 0.7088.

Later today, the Bank of England is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged.

USD/CHF rose 71 pips to 0.8258, and USD/CAD was up 68 pips to 1.3988.

Bitcoin was steady, trading around 76,000 dollars.

Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, EUR/USD and GBP/USD both remained subdued, at 1.1461 and 1.3376 respectively.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY eased to 156.12.

Gold rebounded to 4,290 dollars.

Bitcoin was little changed at 76,113 dollars.

Expected Today

The Bank of England is expected to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.75%.

In the U.S., housing starts are estimated to increase by 9.0% month-on-month in August, while building permits are expected to drop 1.6%. Also, weekly initial jobless claims are estimated at 208,000.

Canada's producer price index is expected to be up 12.3% year-on-year in August.

Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.

Crude Oil (WTI)‎ (X6)‎ intraday: the downside prevails.

Pivot:

99.50

Our preference:

Short positions below 99.50 with targets at 94.80 & 92.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 99.50 look for further upside with 101.60 & 103.00 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is bearish and calls for further decline.

Trade

Gold intraday : The upside prevails as long as 4,269 is support

Our pivot point is at 4,269.

Our preference:

The upside prevails as long as 4,269 is support, with 4,391 and 4,422 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Below 4,269, expect 4,218 and 4,187.

Comment:

The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. The price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 4,290 and 4,312). The Gold is trading above its upper Bollinger band (standing at 4,326).

Trade

GBP/USD intraday : Aim at 1.3357

Our pivot point is at 1.3427.

Our preference:

The downside prevails as long as 1.3427 is resistance, with 1.3357 and 1.3345 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Above 1.3427, look for 1.3448 and 1.3460.

Comment:

The MACD is above its signal line and negative. The price stands above its 20 period moving average (1.3380) but below its 50 period moving average (1.3417).

Trade

USD/JPY intraday : Towards 156.62

Our pivot point is at 155.05.

Our preference:

The upside prevails as long as 155.05 is support, with 156.62 and 156.97 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Below 155.05, expect 154.46 and 154.11.

Comment:

The price is below its 20 period moving average (156.03) but above its 50 period moving average (155.61).

Trade

EUR/USD intraday : Watch 1.1452

Our pivot point is at 1.1512.

Our preference:

The downside prevails as long as 1.1512 is resistance, with 1.1452 and 1.1442 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Above 1.1512, look for 1.1527 and 1.1537.

Comment:

The MACD is above its signal line and negative. The price stands above its 20 period moving average (1.1466) but below its 50 period moving average (1.1500).

Trade

Silver intraday : Pivotal moment

Our pivot point is at 64.51.

Our preference:

The downside prevails as long as 64.51 is resistance, with 61.01 and 60.35 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Above 64.51, look for 65.64 and 66.32.

Comment:

The price is dangerously moving towards our pivot, one of the final opportunities for a reversal.

Trade

Dow Jones (CME)‎ (Z6)‎ intraday: look for 51560.

Pivot:

52440

Our preference:

Short positions below 52440 with targets at 51560 & 51300 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 52440 look for further upside with 52820 & 53100 as targets.

Comment:

As long as 52440 is resistance, expect a return to 51560.

Trade

S&P 500 (CME)‎ (Z6)‎ intraday: towards 7580.

Pivot:

7700

Our preference:

Short positions below 7700 with targets at 7580 & 7557 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 7700 look for further upside with 7720 & 7750 as targets.

Comment:

As long as 7700 is resistance, expect a return to 7580.

Trade

TRADING FOREIGN EXCHANGE ON MARGIN CARRIES A HIGH LEVEL OF RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT YOU COULD SUSTAIN A LOSS OF SOME OR ALL OF YOUR INITIAL INVESTMENT AND THEREFORE YOU SHOULD NOT INVEST MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. BEFORE DECIDING TO TRADE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OR CFD’S YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES, LEVEL OF EXPERIENCE, AND RISK APPETITE.

YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF ALL THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND OTHER CFD TRADING, AND SEEK ADVICE FROM AN INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS. VPFX RECOMMENDS READING THE RISK DISCLOSURE SECTION OF THE PROSPECTUS FOR ANY FINANCIAL PRODUCT MENTIONED.

VPFX is the trading name for Ventura Prime FX Limited with registration number LL16224 registered in Labuan F.T., Malaysia.

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