DAILY NEWS BRIEF - MARKET OUTLOOK

April 17, 2026

Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Ventura Prime FX! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you.

Crude Oil (WTI) Gold GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/USD Silver Dow Jones (CME) S&P 500 (CME)

Market Wrap

Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Thursday, in the U.S. stock market, both the S&P 500 (up 18 points or 0.26% to 7,041 ) and the Nasdaq 100 (up 128 points or 0.49% to 26,333) scored record-high closing levels for a second straight session.

The Dow Jones closed 115 points higher (+0.24%) at 48,578.

U.S. President Donald Trump said Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire, adding that the U.S. and Iran may meet again over the weekend.

Microsoft (MSFT) outperformed other tech giants, as it advanced 2.20% extending its rally to a fourth session.

Other software stocks also posted gains, with Oracle (ORCL) jumping 5.02%, Salesforce (CRM) up 2.04%, and Adobe (ADBE) up 1.43%.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) fell 3.13% despite the world’s largest chip-maker posting record quarterly profits for the fourth consecutive quarter.

On the other hand, other major semiconductor stocks closed higher, with ON Semiconductor (ON) gaining 10.35%, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) up 7.80%, and Intel (INTC) up 5.48%.

After reporting quarterly results, PepsiCo (PEP) rose 2.28%, while Charles Schwab (SCHW) fell 7.63%.

In after-market hours, Netflix (NFLX) tumbled 9% after giving a downbeat guidance and announcing that Reed Hastings, the company’s co-founder and current chairman, will exit the board.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was up for a second session, rising 3.4 basis points to 4.315%.

In Europe, the DAX 40 closed 0.36% higher, the FTSE 100 added 0.29%, while the CAC 40 dipped 0.14%.

U.S. WTI crude futures for May delivery settled 3.40 dollars higher (+3.72%) at 94.69 dollars a barrel on Thursday, but they retreated over 1% at the open of Friday’s session.

Gold price was largely flat around 4,790 dollars an ounce.

Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar regained some strength against other major currencies on Thursday, with the dollar index rebounding to 98.18 halting a seven-session decline.

Regarding U.S. economic data, industrial production fell 0.5% month on month in March (vs +0.5% expected, +0.7% in February).

The latest number of initial jobless claims fell to 207,000, lower than expected.

EUR/USD dipped back to levels below 1.1800.

USD/JPY managed to secure the level of 159.00.

GBP/USD slipped 32 pips to 1.3526. U.K. gross domestic product expanded 0.5% month on month in February, faster than expected.

AUD/USD eased 9 pips to 0.7159. Australia’s data showed that the number of people being employed increased by 17,900 in March, lower than expected, with the jobless rate staying at 4.3%.

USD/CHF advanced 17 pips to 0.7833, while USD/CAD slipped 39 pips to 1.3701.

Bitcoin was trading on and off the key level of 75,000 dollars.

Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, EUR/USD fell to 1.1777 and GBP/USD slipped to 1.3517.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY advanced to 159.40.

Gold was little changed at 4,790 dollars.

Bitcoin traded slightly lower at 74,574 dollars.

Expected Today

The eurozone's trade surplus for February is estimated at 9.8 billion euros.

Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.

Crude Oil (WTI)‎ (M6)‎ Intraday: the bias remains bullish.

Pivot:

89.00

Our preference:

Long positions above 89.00 with targets at 90.80 & 91.80 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 89.00 look for further downside with 88.10 & 87.30 as targets.

Comment:

The next resistances are at 90.80 and then at 91.80.

Trade

Gold Intraday: intraday support around 4768.

Pivot:

4768

Our preference:

Long positions above 4768 with targets at 4806 & 4822 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 4768 look for further downside with 4755 & 4740 as targets.

Comment:

Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Trade

GBP/USD Intraday: under pressure.

Pivot:

1.3555

Our preference:

Short positions below 1.3555 with targets at 1.3480 & 1.3460 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 1.3555 look for further upside with 1.3575 & 1.3595 as targets.

Comment:

As long as 1.3555 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

Trade

USD/JPY Intraday: further upside.

Pivot:

159.00

Our preference:

Long positions above 159.00 with targets at 159.75 & 160.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 159.00 look for further downside with 158.85 & 158.65 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.

Trade

EUR/USD Intraday: key resistance at 1.1795.

Pivot:

1.1795

Our preference:

Short positions below 1.1795 with targets at 1.1765 & 1.1750 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 1.1795 look for further upside with 1.1810 & 1.1825 as targets.

Comment:

As long as 1.1795 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

Trade

Silver Intraday: bullish bias above 78.00.

Pivot:

78.00

Our preference:

Long positions above 78.00 with targets at 79.20 & 79.80 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 78.00 look for further downside with 77.20 & 76.50 as targets.

Comment:

Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Trade

Dow Jones (CME)‎ (M6)‎ Intraday: the upside prevails.

Pivot:

48660

Our preference:

Long positions above 48660 with targets at 48910 & 49090 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 48660 look for further downside with 48520 & 48380 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.

Trade

S&P 500 (CME)‎ (M6)‎ Intraday: towards 7150.

Pivot:

7045

Our preference:

Long positions above 7045 with targets at 7115 & 7150 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 7045 look for further downside with 7015 & 6988 as targets.

Comment:

The next resistances are at 7115 and then at 7150.

Trade

TRADING FOREIGN EXCHANGE ON MARGIN CARRIES A HIGH LEVEL OF RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT YOU COULD SUSTAIN A LOSS OF SOME OR ALL OF YOUR INITIAL INVESTMENT AND THEREFORE YOU SHOULD NOT INVEST MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. BEFORE DECIDING TO TRADE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OR CFD’S YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES, LEVEL OF EXPERIENCE, AND RISK APPETITE.

YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF ALL THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND OTHER CFD TRADING, AND SEEK ADVICE FROM AN INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS. VPFX RECOMMENDS READING THE RISK DISCLOSURE SECTION OF THE PROSPECTUS FOR ANY FINANCIAL PRODUCT MENTIONED.

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