DAILY NEWS BRIEF - MARKET OUTLOOK

July 20, 2026

Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Ventura Prime FX! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you.

Crude Oil (WTI) Gold USD/JPY EUR/USD Dow Jones (CME) S&P 500 (CME) GBP/USD Silver

Market Wrap

Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Friday, U.S. stocks remained under pressure, with the S&P 500 closing 76 points lower (-1.01%) at 7,457 and the Nasdaq 100 down 433 points (-1.49%) to 28,592.

The Dow Jones declined 406 points (-0.77%) to 52,146.

Tech stocks weighed on the market after China's Moonshot AI released a new model it claims outperforms some American systems, stoking concerns over U.S. AI infrastructure spending.

Most mega-cap tech stocks fell, with Meta (META) losing 2.79%, Microsoft (MSFT) down 1.82%, Alphabet (GOOGL) down 2.17%, and Amazon (AMZN) down 1.06%.

Apple (AAPL) was the exception, edging up 0.14% to another record closing level. The move pushed Apple past Nvidia to become the world's most valuable company, at a market capitalization of 4.88 trillion dollars.

Semiconductors fell further: Nvidia (NVDA) dropped 2.21%, TSMC (TSM) fell 2.77%, Intel (INTC) fell 2.00%, and AMD dropped 1.03%.

Netflix (NFLX) declined 7.26% after quarterly results and guidance missed expectations.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was little changed, easing less than one basis point to 4.549%.

In Europe, the DAX 40 fell 0.34% and the CAC 40 declined 0.47%, while the FTSE 100 climbed 0.27%.

On Sunday, the U.S. said it had completed an eighth straight night of attacks against Iran, after earlier reporting that at least two U.S. military personnel were killed in Jordan. President Donald Trump said the “gates of hell” have been unleashed following the killing of U.S. Troops by Iran.

In early Asian trading hours on Monday, U.S. WTI crude futures jumped $2.83 (+3.58%) to $81.78 a barrel.

Gold slipped $18 to $3,999 an ounce.

Market Wrap: Forex

In early Asian trading hours on Monday, the U.S. dollar remained firm against major currencies.

U.S. industrial production edged up 0.1% month-on-month in June (vs +0.2% expected). The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 54.4 in June (vs 50.4 expected, 49.5 in May).

EUR/USD was still subdued at 1.1426, and GBP/USD at 1.3442.

USD/JPY remained elevated at 162.53, not far away from its 40-year high at 162.84 marked on July 1.

AUD/USD traded lower at 0.6974, extending its decline to a third session.

Bitcoin showed resilience, trading around 64,700 dollars.

Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.

Crude Oil (WTI)‎ (U6)‎ intraday: intraday support around 82.85.

Pivot:

82.85

Our preference:

Long positions above 82.85 with targets at 85.30 & 87.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 82.85 look for further downside with 82.10 & 81.10 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI shows upside momentum.

Trade

Gold intraday: up turn.

Pivot:

3980

Our preference:

Long positions above 3980 with targets at 4040 & 4071 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 3980 look for further downside with 3965 & 3942 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI calls for a bounce.

Trade

USD/JPY intraday: bullish bias above 162.30.

Pivot:

162.30

Our preference:

Long positions above 162.30 with targets at 162.70 & 162.85 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 162.30 look for further downside with 162.15 & 162.00 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI advocates for further advance.

Trade

EUR/USD intraday: the downside prevails.

Pivot:

1.1440

Our preference:

Short positions below 1.1440 with targets at 1.1410 & 1.1390 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 1.1440 look for further upside with 1.1455 & 1.1475 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is bearish and calls for further decline.

Trade

Dow Jones (CME)‎ (U6)‎ intraday: look for 51980.

Pivot:

52550

Our preference:

Short positions below 52550 with targets at 52150 & 51980 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 52550 look for further upside with 52780 & 52990 as targets.

Comment:

Technically the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50.

Trade

S&P 500 (CME)‎ (U6)‎ intraday: aim @ 7430.

Pivot:

7550

Our preference:

Short positions below 7550 with targets at 7455 & 7430 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 7550 look for further upside with 7575 & 7610 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50%

Trade

GBP/USD intraday: 1.3400 in sight.

Pivot:

1.3460

Our preference:

Short positions below 1.3460 with targets at 1.3425 & 1.3400 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 1.3460 look for further upside with 1.3480 & 1.3500 as targets.

Comment:

As long as the resistance at 1.3460 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.3425 remains high.

Trade

Silver intraday: turning up.

Pivot:

55.60

Our preference:

Long positions above 55.60 with targets at 57.45 & 58.20 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 55.60 look for further downside with 55.20 & 54.80 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI calls for a rebound.

Trade

TRADING FOREIGN EXCHANGE ON MARGIN CARRIES A HIGH LEVEL OF RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT YOU COULD SUSTAIN A LOSS OF SOME OR ALL OF YOUR INITIAL INVESTMENT AND THEREFORE YOU SHOULD NOT INVEST MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. BEFORE DECIDING TO TRADE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OR CFD’S YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES, LEVEL OF EXPERIENCE, AND RISK APPETITE.

YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF ALL THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND OTHER CFD TRADING, AND SEEK ADVICE FROM AN INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS. VPFX RECOMMENDS READING THE RISK DISCLOSURE SECTION OF THE PROSPECTUS FOR ANY FINANCIAL PRODUCT MENTIONED.

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