Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Ventura Prime FX! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you.
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DAILY NEWS BRIEF - MARKET OUTLOOK
July 15, 2025
 
   
 
S&P 500 (CME)   EUR/USD   GBP/USD   USD/JPY   Gold   Silver   Crude Oil (WTI)   Dow Jones (CME)  
 
 
  Market Wrap  
 
 
U.S. Market Overview:

On Tuesday, the U.S. stock market closed with mixed results, retreating from session highs after inflation data came in hotter than expected, potentially indicating delays in Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The S&P 500 fell by 24 points (-0.4%) to finish at 6,243, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 28 points (+0.13%) to close at 22,884. The Dow, however, dropped 436 points (-0.98%) to end at 44,023.

In terms of sector performance, Technology (XLK) was the only sector to finish in positive territory, while Materials (XLB), Health Care (XLV), and Financials (XLF) lagged behind.

U.S. Economic Developments:

The inflation rate in the U.S. rose by 2.7% year over year in June, surpassing the anticipated growth of 2.6% and up from the 2.4% reported in the previous month. On a monthly basis, inflation increased by 0.3%, aligning with expectations but higher than the 0.1% growth recorded in May.

Core inflation also showed a year-over-year increase of 2.9% in June, meeting expectations and rising from May's 2.8%. Month-over-month, core inflation grew by 0.2%, as anticipated, compared to 0.1% in the prior month.

Additionally, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index improved to 5.5 in July, exceeding the forecasted rise to -13 from June's -16. This marks the index's first improvement after two consecutive months of decline.

U.S. Equity News:

Nvidia (NVDA) surged by 4.04% after the company reportedly received assurances from U.S. officials that export licenses for its H20 AI chips will be approved, enabling exports to China to resume.

In contrast, BlackRock (BLK) plummeted by 5.88% following the withdrawal of $52 billion by a major client from the firm's index funds, with further withdrawals anticipated from the same client, according to Edward Jones.

Apple (AAPL) saw a slight increase of 0.23% after announcing a $500 million investment in rare earth producer MP Materials (MP), which experienced a significant jump of 19.99% in its stock price following the news.

Wells Fargo (WFC) also faced a decline, falling 5.48%, as its quarterly sales came in roughly in line with expectations.

Oracle (ORCL) rose by 2.48% after announcing plans to invest $3 billion over the next five years in AI and cloud infrastructure in Germany and the Netherlands to address growing demand.

Volatility & Commodities Snapshot:

The VIX index rose 0.18pt (+1.05%) to 17.38 while the US 10 year yield climbed to 4.487%.

In the commodities market, Gold fell 15.42 dollars (-0.46%) to 3328.1 and WTI Crude Oil slipped 0.34 dollars (-0.51%) to 66.64.

Europe Market Overview:

At the European close, major indices in the region ended the day in negative territory.

Germany's DAX fell by 100 points (-0.42%) to 24,060, France's CAC 40 declined by 41 points (-0.54%) to 7,766, and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 dropped by 59 points (-0.66%) to 8,938.

In economic news, Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index rose to 52.7 in July, surpassing expectations of 49.1 and up from 47.5 in June. Additionally, eurozone industrial production increased by 1.7% month-on-month in May, exceeding the anticipated growth of 0.8%, following a revised decline of 2.2% the previous month (originally reported as -2.4%).

Foreign Exchange & Crypto Wrap:

The dollar index added 0.54pts (+0.55%) to 98.622.

EUR/USD declined 62pips (-0.53%) to 1.1601.

GBP/USD slipped 48pips (-0.36%) to 1.3379.

USD/JPY rose 114pips (+0.77%) to 148.84.

USD/CHF climbed 41pips (+0.51%) to 0.8017.

AUD/USD fell 32pips (-0.49%) to 0.6511.

USD/CAD advanced 19pips (+0.14%) to 1.3722. In Canada, the inflation rate jumped 1.9% year over year in June, against an improvement to 1.5% forecasted from May's reported 1.7%. Month over month, inflation grew 0.1%, against an expected decline of 0.3%.

Finally, in the cryptocurrencies market, Bitcoin fell 3759 dollars (-3.13%) to 116462 while Ethereum rose 38 dollars (+1.27%) to 3043.
 
 
 
 
  Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.
 
 
     
 
S&P 500 (CME)‎ (U5)‎ Intraday: the downside prevails.
 
Pivot:
6300.00
 
Our preference:
Short positions below 6300.00 with targets at 6245.00 & 6226.00 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
Above 6300.00 look for further upside with 6315.00 & 6340.00 as targets.
 
Comment:
The RSI has broken down its 30 level.
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
Trade
 
 
 
 
 
EUR/USD intraday : the downside prevails as long as 1.1629 is resistance
 
Our pivot point is at 1.1629.
 
Our preference:
The downside prevails as long as 1.1629 is resistance
 
Alternative scenario:
Above 1.1629, look for 1.1661 and 1.1679.
 
Comment:
The RSI is below 30. It could either mean that the price is in a lasting downtrend or just oversold and therefore bound to retrace (look for bullish divergence in this case). The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.1635 and 1.1659).
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
Trade
 
 
 
 
 
GBP/USD intraday : the downside prevails as long as 1.3421 is resistance
 
Our pivot point is at 1.3421.
 
Our preference:
The downside prevails as long as 1.3421 is resistance
 
Alternative scenario:
Above 1.3421, look for 1.3458 and 1.3480.
 
Comment:
The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.3417 and 1.3427).
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
Trade
 
 
 
 
 
USD/JPY intraday : the upside prevails as long as 148.38 is support
 
Our pivot point is at 148.38.
 
Our preference:
The upside prevails as long as 148.38 is support
 
Alternative scenario:
Below 148.38, expect 147.81 and 147.46.
 
Comment:
The RSI is above 70. It could mean either that the price is in a lasting uptrend or just overbought and therefore bound to correct (look for bearish divergence in this case). The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 148.41 and 147.98).
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
Trade
 
 
 
 
 
Gold Intraday: key resistance at 3340.00.
 
Pivot:
3340.00
 
Our preference:
Short positions below 3340.00 with targets at 3320.00 & 3310.00 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
Above 3340.00 look for further upside with 3350.00 & 3365.00 as targets.
 
Comment:
The upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 3340.00.
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
Trade
 
 
 
 
 
Silver Intraday: under pressure.
 
Pivot:
38.00
 
Our preference:
Short positions below 38.00 with targets at 37.15 & 36.85 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
Above 38.00 look for further upside with 38.35 & 38.80 as targets.
 
Comment:
The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50%
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
Trade
 
 
 
 
 
Crude Oil (WTI)‎ (U5)‎ Intraday: key resistance at 66.00.
 
Pivot:
66.00
 
Our preference:
Short positions below 66.00 with targets at 64.75 & 64.20 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
Above 66.00 look for further upside with 66.50 & 67.00 as targets.
 
Comment:
The upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 66.00.
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
Trade
 
 
 
 
 
Dow Jones (CME)‎ (U5)‎ Intraday: the downside prevails.
 
Pivot:
44340.00
 
Our preference:
Short positions below 44340.00 with targets at 44080.00 & 43900.00 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
Above 44340.00 look for further upside with 44450.00 & 44550.00 as targets.
 
Comment:
The RSI has broken down its 30 level.
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
Trade
 
 
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