DAILY NEWS BRIEF - MARKET OUTLOOK

August 21, 2026

Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Ventura Prime FX! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you.

Crude Oil (WTI) Gold GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/USD Silver Dow Jones (CME) S&P 500 (CME)

Market Wrap

Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Thursday, major U.S. indices finished lower. The S&P 500 retreated 67 points (-0.87%) to 7,641, the Nasdaq 100 fell 213 points (-0.72%) to 29,213, and the Dow Jones dropped 704 points (-1.32%) to 52,759.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rebounded 4.06 basis points to 4.704%.

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index rose to 47.4 in August, above 25.0 estimated. Initial jobless claims fell to 206,000 in the week ended August 15 (vs 201,000 expected), down from a revised 212,000 in the prior week.

Nordson (NDSN) was the best-performing S&P 500 stock, gaining 8.00% after reporting stronger-than-expected fiscal third-quarter earnings and revenue and raising its full-year outlook for the third time this year.

Deere (DE) jumped 6.94% after reporting higher fiscal third-quarter sales and earnings, supported by its Construction & Forestry segment, and raising its fiscal 2026 net income outlook.

Coinbase (COIN) gained 7.58% as Bitcoin traded at its highest level since June 1.

Walmart (WMT) slid 9.15% after quarterly comparable sales missed expectations.

Coty (COTY) sank 9.24% after its current-quarter earnings forecast missed estimates.

Advance Auto Parts (AAP) slumped 24.55% after its full-year sales guidance missed expectations.

Moderna (MRNA) retreated 23.55%, making it the worst-performing S&P 500 stock after surging 177.00% the previous day.

Ross Stores (ROST) was gaining ground in after-hours trading as it reported stronger fiscal second-quarter results and raised its full-year earnings outlook.

In Europe, the DAX fell 0.42%, the CAC 40 dropped 0.57%, and the FTSE 100 gained 0.04%.

In the commodities market, gold ended little changed at 4,521 dollars, while silver gained 1.21 dollars (+1.81%) to 68.13 dollars. WTI crude oil futures rose 2.44 dollars (+2.89%) to 86.83 dollars a barrel.

Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar was broadly steady, with the dollar index gaining 0.05% to 98.88.

EUR/USD was down 1 pip (-0.01%) to 1.1676. Germany’s producer price index rose 3.0% year-on-year in July, above 2.7% estimated.

GBP/USD advanced 24 pips (+0.18%) to 1.3627.

USD/JPY jumped 95 pips (+0.60%) to 159.11, and USD/CHF gained 33 pips (+0.41%) to 0.8006.

AUD/USD fell 12 pips (-0.17%) to 0.7111.

USD/CAD retreated 15 pips (-0.11%) to 1.3791. Canada's producer price index rose 12.4% year-on-year in July, above 12.0% expected.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin jumped 3,710 dollars (+5.37%) to 72,777 dollars and Ethereum gained 107 dollars (+4.83%) to 2,325 dollars.

Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, USD/JPY eased to 158.97. Japan's inflation rate rose to 1.9% year-on-year in July, above 1.7% expected.

Meanwhile, EUR/USD advanced to 1.1692 and GBP/USD climbed to 1.3645.

Gold was flat at 4,521 dollars.

Bitcoin extended its rally to 74,828 dollars.

Expected Today

The eurozone's S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers index is expected to slip to 51.8 in August.

In the U.K., S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers index is anticipated to drop to 51.5 in August.

In the U.S., the S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers index is estimated to stay at 53.9 in August.

Canada's retail sales are expected to be down 0.5% month-on-month in July.

Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.

Crude Oil (WTI)‎ (V6)‎ intraday: the upside prevails.

Pivot:

85.50

Our preference:

Long positions above 85.50 with targets at 87.65 & 88.40 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 85.50 look for further downside with 83.90 & 83.15 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is mixed to bullish.

Trade

Gold intraday : Gains at stake near target

Our pivot point is at 4,464.

Our preference:

The upside prevails as long as 4,464 is support, with 4,560 and 4,582 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Below 4,464, expect 4,427 and 4,405.

Comment:

With prices now approaching our initial target, this level may prompt a throwback. That said, a decisive break above it could also act as a catalyst for further upside.

Trade

GBP/USD intraday : First target, continuation or consolidation?

Our pivot point is at 1.3572.

Our preference:

The upside prevails as long as 1.3572 is support, with 1.3660 and 1.3679 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Below 1.3572, expect 1.3540 and 1.3521.

Comment:

Prices are now close to our first target. Reaching this level could trigger a throwback. Conversely, a clear break above it could help drive the asset price higher.

Trade

USD/JPY intraday : Target 159.35

Our pivot point is at 158.62.

Our preference:

As long as 158.62 is support, look for 159.54

Alternative scenario:

Below 158.62, expect 158.29 and 158.10.

Comment:

The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and positive. The price is below its 20 period moving average (159.02) but above its 50 period moving average (158.81).

Trade

EUR/USD intraday : Aim at 1.1711

Our pivot point is at 1.1668.

Our preference:

The upside prevails as long as 1.1668 is support, with 1.1711 and 1.1723 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Below 1.1668, expect 1.1649 and 1.1638.

Comment:

The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.1686 and 1.1685).

Trade

Silver intraday : Throwback or further upside?

Our pivot point is at 66.67.

Our preference:

The upside prevails as long as 66.67 is support, with 69.70 and 70.34 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Below 66.67, expect 65.60 and 64.96.

Comment:

The approach toward our first target is a key moment to watch, it may trigger a throwback, yet a firm close above this threshold could provide the momentum needed to push the asset price higher.

Trade

Dow Jones (CME)‎ (U6)‎ intraday: under pressure.

Pivot:

53230

Our preference:

Short positions below 53230 with targets at 52770 & 52530 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 53230 look for further upside with 53480 & 53780 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.

Trade

S&P 500 (CME)‎ (U6)‎ intraday: under pressure.

Pivot:

7710

Our preference:

Short positions below 7710 with targets at 7650 & 7617 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 7710 look for further upside with 7733 & 7765 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI shows downside momentum.

Trade

TRADING FOREIGN EXCHANGE ON MARGIN CARRIES A HIGH LEVEL OF RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT YOU COULD SUSTAIN A LOSS OF SOME OR ALL OF YOUR INITIAL INVESTMENT AND THEREFORE YOU SHOULD NOT INVEST MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. BEFORE DECIDING TO TRADE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OR CFD’S YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES, LEVEL OF EXPERIENCE, AND RISK APPETITE.

YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF ALL THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND OTHER CFD TRADING, AND SEEK ADVICE FROM AN INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS. VPFX RECOMMENDS READING THE RISK DISCLOSURE SECTION OF THE PROSPECTUS FOR ANY FINANCIAL PRODUCT MENTIONED.

VPFX is the trading name for Ventura Prime FX Limited with registration number LL16224 registered in Labuan F.T., Malaysia.

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