Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Ventura Prime FX! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you.
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| DAILY NEWS BRIEF - MARKET OUTLOOK |
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| Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Ventura Prime FX! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you. |
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The U.S. stock market rallied for a third consecutive week as positive investor sentiment skyrocketed after Iran’s foreign minister said the Strait of Hormuz was fully open following a reported 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. However, President Trump said the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports would remain in place.
The S&P 500 advanced 84pts (+1.2%) to 7126, the Nasdaq 100 rose 339pts (+1.29%) to 26672, and the Dow increased 868pts (+1.79%) to 49447.
On the sector front, the outperforming sectors were Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Industrials (XLI), and Technology (XLK) while Energy (XLE) Utilities (XLU), and Communication Services (XLC) lagged the most.
Looking back at the weekly performance, the S&P 500 climbed 4.54% and the Nasdaq-100 gained 6.20%. The Dow rose 3.19%. Sector leaders were Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY), while Energy (XLE) and Utilities (XLU) underperformed.
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U.S. Economic Developments: |
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No major economic data was released on Friday.
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Netflix (NFLX) plunged 9.72% after issuing weak near-term guidance and announcing founder Reed Hastings will not seek re-election to the board when his term ends in June.
Apple (AAPL) rose 2.59% after iPhone shipments in China jumped 20% in Q1. BNP Paribas upgraded the stock to "Outperform" from "Neutral."
Royal Caribbean (RCL) surged 7.34% and United Airlines (UAL) climbed 7.12% as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz boosted travel stocks, while Exxon Mobil (XOM) fell 3.65% alongside other energy names on lower oil prices.
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At the European close, the major indices in the region finished in positive territory. Germany's Dax rose 547pts (+2.27%) to 24702, France's Cac 40 gained 162pts (+1.97%) to 8425, and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 increased 77pts (+0.73%) to 10667.
On the economic front, the Eurozone recorded a €11.5 billion trade surplus in February, versus a revised €1.0 billion deficit in January (previously €1.9 billion) and a €9.8 billion surplus expected.
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Global Macro, FX & Commodities: |
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Rates & Risk Sentiment:
The VIX dropped 0.46pts (-2.56%) to 17.48 and the US 10 year yield slid to 4.317%.
Precious Metals & Crude:
Precious metals had a positive day. Gold rose 57.41 dollars (+1.2%) to 4845.19 while Silver gained 2.74 dollars (+3.49%) to 81.14. Meanwhile, WTI Crude Oil dropped 9.47 dollars (-10%) to 85.22 following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Dollar & Majors:
The dollar index fell 0.03pts (-0.03%) to 98.182.
EUR/USD dropped 15pips (-0.13%) to 1.1766.
GBP/USD gained 10pips (-0.07%) to 1.3514.
USD/JPY fell 59pips (-0.37%) to 158.59.
USD/CHF slipped 21pips (-0.27%) to 0.7814.
AUD/USD rose 5pips (+0.07%) to 0.7165.
USD/CAD retreated 16pips (-0.12%) to 1.3687.
Digital Assets:
Cryptocurrencies continued to trend higher, with Bitcoin rising 1971 dollars (+2.62%) to 77207 while Ethereum climbed 68 dollars (+2.9%) to 2418.
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Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out. |
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| S&P 500 (CME) (M6) Intraday: the upside prevails. |
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| Pivot: |
| 7140 |
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| Our preference: |
| Long positions above 7140 with targets at 7200 & 7250 in extension. |
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| Alternative scenario: |
| Below 7140 look for further downside with 7115 & 7085 as targets. |
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| Comment: |
| The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50%. |
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| EUR/USD intraday : the downside prevails as long as 1.1788 is resistance |
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| Our pivot point is at 1.1788. |
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| Our preference: |
| The downside prevails as long as 1.1788 is resistance |
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| Alternative scenario: |
| Above 1.1788, look for 1.1812 and 1.1826. |
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| Comment: |
| The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.1799 and 1.1789). |
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| GBP/USD intraday : the downside prevails as long as 1.3560 is resistance |
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| Our pivot point is at 1.3560. |
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| Our preference: |
| The downside prevails as long as 1.3560 is resistance |
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| Alternative scenario: |
| Above 1.3560, look for 1.3608 and 1.3637. |
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| Comment: |
| The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.3548 and 1.3533). |
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| USD/JPY intraday : Rebound |
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| Our pivot point is at 158.19. |
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| Our preference: |
| Rebound |
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| Alternative scenario: |
| Below 158.19, expect 157.70 and 157.42. |
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| Comment: |
| The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and negative. The MACD must break above its zero level to trigger further gains. Moreover, the price stands above its 20 period moving average (158.40) but below its 50 period moving average (158.92). |
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| Gold Intraday: under pressure. |
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| Pivot: |
| 4876 |
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| Our preference: |
| Short positions below 4876 with targets at 4805 & 4785 in extension. |
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| Alternative scenario: |
| Above 4876 look for further upside with 4910 & 4940 as targets. |
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| Comment: |
| The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50% |
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| Silver Intraday: the downside prevails. |
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| Pivot: |
| 82.80 |
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| Our preference: |
| Short positions below 82.80 with targets at 79.70 & 78.60 in extension. |
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| Alternative scenario: |
| Above 82.80 look for further upside with 84.30 & 85.40 as targets. |
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| Comment: |
| The immediate trend remains down and the momentum is strong. |
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| Crude Oil (WTI) (M6) Intraday: choppy. |
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| Pivot: |
| 84.10 |
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| Our preference: |
| Short positions below 84.10 with targets at 78.70 & 75.20 in extension. |
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| Alternative scenario: |
| Above 84.10 look for further upside with 87.30 & 90.25 as targets. |
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| Comment: |
| The upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 84.10. |
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| Dow Jones (CME) (M6) Intraday: intraday support around 49510. |
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| Pivot: |
| 49510 |
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| Our preference: |
| Long positions above 49510 with targets at 49910 & 50125 in extension. |
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| Alternative scenario: |
| Below 49510 look for further downside with 49350 & 49060 as targets. |
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| Comment: |
| Technically the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. |
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TRADING FOREIGN EXCHANGE ON MARGIN CARRIES A HIGH LEVEL OF RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT YOU COULD SUSTAIN A LOSS OF SOME OR ALL OF YOUR INITIAL INVESTMENT AND THEREFORE YOU SHOULD NOT INVEST MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE.
THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. BEFORE DECIDING TO TRADE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OR CFD’S YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES, LEVEL OF EXPERIENCE, AND RISK APPETITE.
YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF ALL THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND OTHER CFD TRADING, AND SEEK ADVICE FROM AN INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS. VPFX RECOMMENDS READING THE RISK DISCLOSURE SECTION OF THE PROSPECTUS FOR ANY FINANCIAL PRODUCT MENTIONED.
VPFX is the trading name for Ventura Prime FX Limited with registration number LL16224 registered in Labuan F.T., Malaysia.
Ventura Prime FX Limited is authorised and regulated by the Labuan Financial Services Authority (LFSA). Registered Address:Kensington Gardens, No U1317, Lot 7616, Jalan Jumidar Buyong, 87000 Labuan Federal Territory, Malaysia
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