DAILY NEWS BRIEF - MARKET OUTLOOK

November 5, 2026

Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Ventura Prime FX! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you.

Crude Oil (WTI) Gold USD/JPY EUR/USD Dow Jones (CME) S&P 500 (CME) GBP/USD Silver

Market Wrap

Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Wednesday, major U.S. stock indexes closed sharply higher after results of Midterm Elections were announced, with the Dow Jones surging 1,569 points (+3.03%) to 53,356, the S&P 500 up 119 points (+1.58%) to 7,688, and the Nasdaq 100 up 256 points (+0.91%) to 28,437.

The Dow Jones marked its biggest one-day percentage gain since April 2025.

Democrats captured full control of U.S. Congress, projected to get 259 House seats and a 54–44 Senate majority.

U.S. WTI crude futures retreated 7.97 dollars (-8.29%) to 88.12 dollars a barrel after Vice President Vance blamed the Iran war for the midterm rout and markets priced a higher chance of U.S.-Iran de-escalation.

Energy majors tracked the oil dump, with Occidental Petroleum (OXY) down 5.13%, ExxonMobil (XOM) down 4.62%, and Chevron (CVX) down 3.69%.

Regarding mega caps, Microsoft (MSFT) surged 6.68%, Amazon (AMZN) jumped 6.12%, Apple (AAPL) climbed 5.31%, Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced 3.18%, and Meta Platforms (META) was up 1.44%.

However, Tesla (TSLA) fell 3.34% and Nvidia (NVDA) dropped 3.17%.

In Texas, Democrat Gina Hinojosa won the governor race, ousting Republican Greg Abbott. She pledged an immediate data-center moratorium in a state that holds roughly 27% of U.S. data-center capacity.

As a result, data-center and neocloud names were crushed, with Vistra (VST) falling 13.83%, IREN Limited (IREN) down 11.24%, CoreWeave (CRWV) down 9.90%, and Nebius (NBIS) down 6.67%.

Semiconductor stocks closed mixed. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rose 1.01% and Qualcomm (QCOM) jumped 5.33%, while Micron Technology (MU) tumbled 7.00%, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) sank 5.70%, and Arm Holdings (ARM) was down 5.28%.

Healthcare names led the rotation, with Centene (CNC) gaining 12.64%, Universal Health Services (UHS) up 10.91%, and HCA Healthcare (HCA) up 10.34%.

Renewable energy stocks were bought on clean energy hopes after Democrats’ landslide win, with Canadian Solar (CSIQ) rising 6.73%, NextEra Energy (NEE) up 4.89%, and First Solar (FSLR) up 4.63%.

Defense stocks softened on spending-outlook fears, with Lockheed Martin (LMT) falling 6.88%, Northrop Grumman (NOC) down 4.53%, and RTX Corp (RTX) down 2.64%.

The 10-year Treasury yield declined 7.6 basis points to 4.890%.

European stocks also closed sharply higher, with the DAX 40 rising 2.22%, the CAC 40 up 1.96%, and the FTSE 100 up 1.79%.

Spot gold bounced 131 dollars (+3.34%) to 4,061 dollars an ounce.

Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar softened further on the Democrats’ big win, with EUR/USD climbing 37 pips to 1.1229, GBP/USD advancing 57 pips to 1.3472, AUD/USD rebounding 39 pips to 0.7005.

The Bank of England is widely expected to raise its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% later today.

USD/JPY declined 24 pips to 158.43, USD/CHF dropped 37 pips to 0.8171, and USD/CAD was down 29 pips to 1.3979.

The ADP jobs report showed that the number of private payrolls rose by 86,000 in October, more than expected, while the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) services index cooled to 54.5 in October.

Bitcoin advanced alongside risk assets, jumping 4% to 80,350 dollars.

Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.

Crude Oil (WTI)‎ (Z6)‎ intraday: the downside prevails.

Pivot:

97.00

Our preference:

Short positions below 97.00 with targets at 85.00 & 80.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 97.00 look for further upside with 100.00 & 102.00 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI has broken down its 30 level.

Trade

Gold intraday : the RSI is overbought

Our pivot point is at 4,059.

Our preference:

The upside prevails as long as 4,059 is support, with 4,160 and 4,180 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Below 4,059, expect 4,025 and 4,005.

Comment:

The RSI is above 70. It could mean either that the price is in a lasting uptrend or just overbought and therefore bound to correct (look for bearish divergence in this case). The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. The price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 4,065 and 4,029). The Gold is trading above its upper Bollinger band (standing at 4,092).

Trade

USD/JPY intraday : The downside prevails as long as 158.32 is resistance

Our pivot point is at 158.32.

Our preference:

The downside prevails as long as 158.32 is resistance, with 157.63 and 157.50 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Above 158.32, look for 158.53 and 158.65.

Comment:

The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. The price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 158.37 and 158.25). The USD/JPY is trading below its lower Bollinger band (standing at 158.15).

Trade

EUR/USD intraday : Gains at stake near target

Our pivot point is at 1.1198.

Our preference:

The upside prevails as long as 1.1198 is support, with 1.1274 and 1.1286 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Below 1.1198, expect 1.1178 and 1.1166.

Comment:

Price is consolidating just below a key resistance level, setting the stage for an upside attempt.

Trade

Dow Jones (CME)‎ (Z6)‎ intraday: expect 55000.

Pivot:

52585

Our preference:

Long positions above 52585 with targets at 54000 & 55000 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 52585 look for further downside with 51440 & 51000 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI shows upside momentum.

Trade

S&P 500 (CME)‎ (Z6)‎ intraday: the upside prevails.

Pivot:

7630

Our preference:

Long positions above 7630 with targets at 7800 & 7900 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 7630 look for further downside with 7550 & 7490 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI shows upside momentum.

Trade

GBP/USD intraday : Key resistance level approaches

Our pivot point is at 1.3415.

Our preference:

The upside prevails as long as 1.3415 is support, with 1.3498 and 1.3515 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Below 1.3415, expect 1.3387 and 1.3371.

Comment:

Prices are now close to our first target. Reaching this level could trigger a throwback. Conversely, a clear break above it could help drive the asset price higher.

Trade

Silver intraday : As long as 51.78 is support, look for 54.47

Our pivot point is at 51.78.

Our preference:

As long as 51.78 is support, look for 54.47

Alternative scenario:

Below 51.78, expect 50.95 and 50.45.

Comment:

The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and positive. The price could retrace. The price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 52.27 and 51.57).

Trade

TRADING FOREIGN EXCHANGE ON MARGIN CARRIES A HIGH LEVEL OF RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT YOU COULD SUSTAIN A LOSS OF SOME OR ALL OF YOUR INITIAL INVESTMENT AND THEREFORE YOU SHOULD NOT INVEST MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. BEFORE DECIDING TO TRADE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OR CFD’S YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES, LEVEL OF EXPERIENCE, AND RISK APPETITE.

YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF ALL THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND OTHER CFD TRADING, AND SEEK ADVICE FROM AN INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS. VPFX RECOMMENDS READING THE RISK DISCLOSURE SECTION OF THE PROSPECTUS FOR ANY FINANCIAL PRODUCT MENTIONED.

VPFX is the trading name for Ventura Prime FX Limited with registration number LL16224 registered in Labuan F.T., Malaysia.

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