DAILY NEWS BRIEF - MARKET OUTLOOK

June 25, 2026

Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Ventura Prime FX! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you.

Crude Oil (WTI) Gold GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/USD Dow Jones (CME) S&P 500 (CME) Silver

Market Wrap

Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Wednesday, the U.S. stock market continued to trade in choppy fashion. The S&P 500 slipped 7 points (-0.10%) to 7,358, the Nasdaq 100 fell 127 points (-0.43%) to 29,220, while the Dow Jones gained 182 points (+0.35%) to 51,848.

Memory stocks remained under pressure. Western Digital (WDC) fell 4.01%, SanDisk (SNDK) dropped 2.50%, and Seagate Technology (STX) declined 4.37%.

Coinbase (COIN) lost 5.10% as Bitcoin declined to levels near 60,000 dollars.

Cerebras Systems (CBRS) plunged 19.61% after issuing a weak full-year margin forecast.

Micron Technology (MU) fell 0.31%, but surged more than 10% in after-hours trading as it delivered a strong fourth quarter outlook.

In U.S. economic data, new home sales fell 7.3% month-on-month in May, compared with the expected increase of 2.9%.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield declined to 4.398%.

At the European close, DAX 40 fell 0.62%, CAC 40 rose 0.54%, and FTSE 100 gained 0.31%.

In the commodities market, gold fell 110 dollars (-2.69%) to a 7-month low at 3,998 dollars. Silver plunged 4.25 dollars (-6.85%) to a 6-month low at 57.31 dollars.

U.S. WTI crude oil futures (August) fell 2.87 dollars (-3.92%) to a 3-month low at 70.34 dollars a barrel. The Energy Information Administration reported a draw of 6.09 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories last week, more than the expected decline of 4.50 million barrels.

Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar strengthened, with the dollar index gaining 0.17% to 101.58.

EUR/USD declined 23 pips (-0.20%) to 1.1358. Germany’s Ifo business climate index rose to 85.6 in June as expected.

GBP/USD slipped 39 pips (-0.30%) to 1.3164.

USD/JPY rose 23 pips (+0.14%) to 161.80.

USD/CHF climbed 24 pips (+0.30%) to 0.8121.

AUD/USD fell 16 pips (-0.23%) to 0.6898 as Australia’s inflation rate eased to 4.0% year-on-year in May, below the 4.4% forecast.

USD/CAD advanced 24 pips (+0.17%) to 1.4231.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin dropped 1,550 dollars (-2.49%) to 60,838 dollars, while Ethereum fell 51 dollars (-3.11%) to 1,610 dollars.

Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.

Crude Oil (WTI)‎ (Q6)‎ intraday: the downside prevails.

Pivot:

71.00

Our preference:

Short positions below 71.00 with targets at 68.60 & 67.80 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 71.00 look for further upside with 72.10 & 73.50 as targets.

Comment:

As long as 71.00 is resistance, expect a return to 68.60.

Trade

Gold intraday: under pressure.

Pivot:

4050

Our preference:

Short positions below 4050 with targets at 3940 & 3900 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 4050 look for further upside with 4090 & 4140 as targets.

Comment:

As long as 4050 is resistance, likely decline to 3940.

Trade

GBP/USD intraday: the downside prevails.

Pivot:

1.3185

Our preference:

Short positions below 1.3185 with targets at 1.3140 & 1.3120 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 1.3185 look for further upside with 1.3205 & 1.3225 as targets.

Comment:

As long as the resistance at 1.3185 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.3140 remains high.

Trade

USD/JPY intraday: the upside prevails.

Pivot:

161.60

Our preference:

Long positions above 161.60 with targets at 161.90 & 162.10 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 161.60 look for further downside with 161.45 & 161.30 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI advocates for further advance.

Trade

EUR/USD intraday: key resistance at 1.1370.

Pivot:

1.1370

Our preference:

Short positions below 1.1370 with targets at 1.1340 & 1.1325 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 1.1370 look for further upside with 1.1385 & 1.1400 as targets.

Comment:

As long as 1.1370 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

Trade

Dow Jones (CME)‎ (U6)‎ intraday: choppy.

Pivot:

52680

Our preference:

Short positions below 52680 with targets at 51930 & 51720 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 52680 look for further upside with 53000 & 53200 as targets.

Comment:

As long as 52680 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

Trade

S&P 500 (CME)‎ (U6)‎ intraday: choppy.

Pivot:

7490

Our preference:

Short positions below 7490 with targets at 7405 & 7375 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 7490 look for further upside with 7525 & 7550 as targets.

Comment:

As long as 7490 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

Trade

Silver intraday: the downside prevails.

Pivot:

59.60

Our preference:

Short positions below 59.60 with targets at 54.60 & 52.50 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 59.60 look for further upside with 60.70 & 62.30 as targets.

Comment:

Technically the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50.

Trade

TRADING FOREIGN EXCHANGE ON MARGIN CARRIES A HIGH LEVEL OF RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT YOU COULD SUSTAIN A LOSS OF SOME OR ALL OF YOUR INITIAL INVESTMENT AND THEREFORE YOU SHOULD NOT INVEST MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. BEFORE DECIDING TO TRADE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OR CFD’S YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES, LEVEL OF EXPERIENCE, AND RISK APPETITE.

YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF ALL THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND OTHER CFD TRADING, AND SEEK ADVICE FROM AN INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS. VPFX RECOMMENDS READING THE RISK DISCLOSURE SECTION OF THE PROSPECTUS FOR ANY FINANCIAL PRODUCT MENTIONED.

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