DAILY NEWS BRIEF - MARKET OUTLOOK

September 29, 2026

Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Ventura Prime FX! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you.

Crude Oil (WTI) Gold EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY Silver Dow Jones (CME) S&P 500 (CME)

Market Wrap

Market Wrap: pre-opening session

U.S. market futures trade mixed after major U.S. stock indexes closed in the red yesterday on higher yields, with the S&P 500 falling 59 points (-0.77%) to 7,683, the Nasdaq 100 down 331 points (-1.08%) to 30,276, and the Dow Jones down 347 points (-0.67%) to 51,481.

On the stat front, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index is expected at 90.0 in September vs 89.4 in August. Separately JOLTS job openings are estimated at 7.24 million in August.

Canada's gross domestic product is seen flat month-on-month in July after a 0.3% rise in June.

European indices are mostly slightly higher. On the stat plan, in the eurozone, the economic sentiment indicator came in at 97.9 in September, versus 99.0 expected and 98.4 in August. Separately, in Spain, inflation accelerated to 4.9% year-on-year in September in a preliminary estimate, its highest level since early 2023, versus 4.7% expected and 4.3% in August.

Asian indices traded mostly red. On the economic front, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% as expected.

WTI crude oil prices consolidate below 95.00 dollars after a very choppy session yesterday. While U.S. President Donald Trump rejected a ceasefire proposal by Iran, reports said Qatari mediators are likely to hold separate talks with U.S. and Iranian officials in a fresh push to end the war.

Gold attempts to stabilize above 4,100 dollars.

Bitcoin is little changed around 84,000 dollars.

Premarket news

AMD (AMD), a chip giant, "has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire World Labs, an AI model and research lab. The all-stock transaction is valued at approximately $8.2 billion and is expected to close by the end of 2026".

Summit Therapeutics (SMMT), a biopharmaceutical oncology company, soars after announcing a 2 billion dollars strategic equity investment from U.K. pharma AstraZeneca.

CarMax (KMX), a car and light truck retail chain, is well oriented after posting better-than-expected quarterly sales.

Expected Today

Carnival Corporation Ltd (CCL)

Carmax Inc (KMX)

Canada

On Monday, the S&P/TSX Composite Index slid 0.87% to 35,489 and the S&P/TSX 60 Index fell 0.67% to 2,088.

WSP Global (WSP)'s, an engineering services firm, target price was cut to 216 dollars from 219 dollars at National Bank of Canada.

Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.

Crude Oil (WTI)‎ (X6)‎ intraday: key resistance at 94.74.

Pivot:

94.74

Our preference:

Short positions below 94.74 with targets at 91.25 & 90.20 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 94.74 look for further upside with 96.75 & 98.00 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is bearish and calls for further decline.

Trade

Gold intraday : 4,106 in sight

Our pivot point is at 4,200.

Our preference:

The downside prevails as long as 4,200 is resistance, with 4,106 and 4,081 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Above 4,200, look for 4,243 and 4,268.

Comment:

The technical picture suggests holding the setup and awaiting price action.

Trade

EUR/USD intraday : Towards 1.1321

Our pivot point is at 1.1363.

Our preference:

The downside prevails as long as 1.1363 is resistance, with 1.1321 and 1.1310 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Above 1.1363, look for 1.1381 and 1.1392.

Comment:

The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.1357 and 1.1365).

Trade

GBP/USD intraday : Watch 1.3208

Our pivot point is at 1.3263.

Our preference:

The downside prevails as long as 1.3263 is resistance, with 1.3208 and 1.3193 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Above 1.3263, look for 1.3288 and 1.3303.

Comment:

The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.3240 and 1.3251).

Trade

USD/JPY intraday : The upside prevails as long as 157.13 is support

Our pivot point is at 157.13.

Our preference:

The upside prevails as long as 157.13 is support, with 158.24 and 158.50 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Below 157.13, expect 156.69 and 156.43.

Comment:

The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. The price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 157.41 and 157.33).

Trade

Silver intraday : Towards 59.78

Our pivot point is at 62.31.

Our preference:

The downside prevails as long as 62.31 is resistance, with 59.78 and 59.14 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Above 62.31, look for 63.39 and 64.03.

Comment:

The MACD is above its signal line and negative. The price stands above its 20 period moving average (60.71) but below its 50 period moving average (60.95).

Trade

Dow Jones (CME)‎ (Z6)‎ intraday: key resistance at 52130.

Pivot:

52130

Our preference:

Short positions below 52130 with targets at 51480 & 51270 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 52130 look for further upside with 52380 & 52730 as targets.

Comment:

As long as 52130 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

Trade

S&P 500 (CME)‎ (Z6)‎ intraday: under pressure.

Pivot:

7785

Our preference:

Short positions below 7785 with targets at 7707 & 7675 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 7785 look for further upside with 7815 & 7847 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is around its neutrality area at 50%

Trade

TRADING FOREIGN EXCHANGE ON MARGIN CARRIES A HIGH LEVEL OF RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT YOU COULD SUSTAIN A LOSS OF SOME OR ALL OF YOUR INITIAL INVESTMENT AND THEREFORE YOU SHOULD NOT INVEST MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. BEFORE DECIDING TO TRADE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OR CFD’S YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES, LEVEL OF EXPERIENCE, AND RISK APPETITE.

YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF ALL THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND OTHER CFD TRADING, AND SEEK ADVICE FROM AN INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS. VPFX RECOMMENDS READING THE RISK DISCLOSURE SECTION OF THE PROSPECTUS FOR ANY FINANCIAL PRODUCT MENTIONED.

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