DAILY NEWS BRIEF - MARKET OUTLOOK

June 30, 2026

Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Ventura Prime FX! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you.

Crude Oil (WTI) Gold GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/USD Dow Jones (CME) S&P 500 (CME) Silver

Market Wrap

Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Monday, U.S. stocks regained upward momentum, with the S&P 500 advancing 86 points (+1.18%) to 7,440 and halting a five-session losing streak.

The Nasdaq 100 rebounded 656 points (+2.26%) to 29,774, and the Dow Jones was up 306 points (+0.59%) to 52,182.

Alphabet (GOOGL) rose 4.82% on the first day trading as a Dow Jones constituent stock.

Tesla (TSLA) gained 8.46% ahead of its highly anticipated second-quarter vehicle delivery data due later this week.

SpaceX (SPCX) climbed 7.15%. The stock is scheduled to join the Nasdaq 100 on July 7.

Strategy (MSTR) surged 12.60% after unveiling a capital management overhaul.

Semiconductor stocks closed broadly higher, with Applied Materials (AMAT) jumping 10.82%, Lam Research (LRCX) up 8.39%, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) up 3.43%, and Intel (INTC) up 2.65%.

Broadcom (AVGO) added 2.04%, Nvidia (NVDA) gained 1.27%, and Micron (MU) was up 1.14%.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was flat at 4.376%.

European stock markets closed lower, with the DAX 40 falling 0.18%, the CAC 40 down 0.21%, and the FTSE 100 down 0.23%.

U.S. WTI crude futures settled 1.52 dollars higher (+2.20%) at 70.75 dollars a barrel.

Gold retreated 72 dollars (-1.77%) to 4,015 dollars an ounce, failing to rebound further.

Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar declined for a third consecutive session, with the dollar index dropping to 101.09.

The U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index came in at 0.0 for June (vs 2.0 expected, 0.4 in May).

EUR/USD gained 43 pips to 1.1426.

USD/JPY rose 20 pips to 161.93. Japan’s retail sales grew 1.9% month-on-month in May, exceeding expectations.

GBP/USD advanced 59 pips to 1.3260, while AUD/USD dipped 8 pips to 0.6889.

USD/CHF slipped 26 pips to 0.8070, while USD/CAD added 8 pips to 1.4202.

Bitcoin rose alongside risk assets, recovering the 60,000-dollar level.

Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.

Crude Oil (WTI)‎ (Q6)‎ intraday: continuation of the rebound.

Pivot:

69.80

Our preference:

Long positions above 69.80 with targets at 71.15 & 71.85 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 69.80 look for further downside with 69.00 & 68.55 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI has just landed on its neutrality area at 50% and is turning up.

Trade

Gold intraday: aim @ 3920.

Pivot:

4000

Our preference:

Short positions below 4000 with targets at 3920 & 3880 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 4000 look for further upside with 4025 & 4044 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI has broken down its 30 level.

Trade

GBP/USD intraday: caution.

Pivot:

1.3225

Our preference:

Long positions above 1.3225 with targets at 1.3260 & 1.3275 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 1.3225 look for further downside with 1.3205 & 1.3185 as targets.

Comment:

Intraday technical indicators are mixed and call for caution.

Trade

USD/JPY intraday: the upside prevails.

Pivot:

161.90

Our preference:

Long positions above 161.90 with targets at 162.35 & 162.50 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 161.90 look for further downside with 161.75 & 161.60 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI calls for a new upleg.

Trade

EUR/USD intraday: turning down.

Pivot:

1.1430

Our preference:

Short positions below 1.1430 with targets at 1.1380 & 1.1365 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 1.1430 look for further upside with 1.1445 & 1.1460 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI calls for a new downleg.

Trade

Dow Jones (CME)‎ (U6)‎ intraday: bullish bias above 52450.

Pivot:

52450

Our preference:

Long positions above 52450 with targets at 52700 & 52860 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 52450 look for further downside with 52300 & 52130 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.

Trade

S&P 500 (CME)‎ (U6)‎ intraday: bullish bias above 7470.

Pivot:

7470

Our preference:

Long positions above 7470 with targets at 7525 & 7560 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 7470 look for further downside with 7450 & 7415 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50%.

Trade

Silver intraday: under pressure.

Pivot:

58.55

Our preference:

Short positions below 58.55 with targets at 56.60 & 55.60 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 58.55 look for further upside with 59.60 & 60.70 as targets.

Comment:

As long as 58.55 is resistance, expect a return to 56.60.

Trade

TRADING FOREIGN EXCHANGE ON MARGIN CARRIES A HIGH LEVEL OF RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT YOU COULD SUSTAIN A LOSS OF SOME OR ALL OF YOUR INITIAL INVESTMENT AND THEREFORE YOU SHOULD NOT INVEST MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. BEFORE DECIDING TO TRADE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OR CFD’S YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES, LEVEL OF EXPERIENCE, AND RISK APPETITE.

YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF ALL THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND OTHER CFD TRADING, AND SEEK ADVICE FROM AN INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS. VPFX RECOMMENDS READING THE RISK DISCLOSURE SECTION OF THE PROSPECTUS FOR ANY FINANCIAL PRODUCT MENTIONED.

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