DAILY NEWS BRIEF - MARKET OUTLOOK

May 19, 2026

Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Ventura Prime FX! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you.

Crude Oil (WTI) Gold S&P 500 (CME) EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY Silver Dow Jones (CME)

Market Wrap

U.S. Market Overview:

On Monday, the major U.S. indices closed mixed as Iran tensions pushed oil prices and Treasury yields higher, weighing on sentiment. The Dow gained 159 points (+0.32%) to 49,686, while the S&P 500 slipped 5 points (-0.07%) to 7,403 and the Nasdaq 100 declined 130 points (-0.45%) to 28,994. Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), and Financials (XLF) outperformed on the day, while Technology (XLK), Industrials (XLI), and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) lagged.

Looking at the latest U.S. economic data, the NAHB housing market index increased to 37, above the 35 estimate and 34 in April.

U.S. Equity News:

Among large-cap tech names, Tesla (TSLA) led declines, dropping 2.9%, while Nvidia (NVDA) shed 1.33% ahead of its closely watched earnings report Wednesday. Apple (AAPL) and Meta (META) also slipped, falling 0.8% and 0.49%, respectively. On the upside, Microsoft (MSFT) edged up 0.38%, Amazon (AMZN) gained 0.27%, and Alphabet (GOOGL) was essentially flat.

Dominion Energy (D), a Virginia-based electricity and natural gas utility, surged 9.44% after reports emerged that NextEra Energy (NEE) (-4.63%) is in talks to acquire the company.

Delta Air Lines (DAL), an airline, and Macy's (M), a department store chain, gain ground as Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) took stakes in the companies. On the other hand, UnitedHealth Group (UNH), a private health insurance provider, drops as Berkshire Hathaway fully exited its stake in the company.

Baidu (BIDU), a Chinese technology company, gained 1.76% as quarterly sales beat estimates.

Europe Market Overview:

European markets closed broadly higher on Monday. Germany's DAX gained 357 points (+1.49%) to 24,307, the U.K.'s FTSE 100 advanced 128 points (+1.26%) to 10,323, and France's CAC 40 edged up 34 points (+0.44%) to 7,987.

Volatility & Commodities Snapshot:

The VIX eased 0.61 points to 17.82, while the 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 4.589%. In commodities, gold added $25.98 (+0.57%) to $4,564, silver rallied $1.59 (+2.09%) to $77.54, and WTI crude ticked up $0.26 (+0.25%) to $105.68.

The Dollar & Majors: Dollar weakens broadly as sterling leads G10 gains

Dollar Index: -0.33pts (-0.33%) to 98.955

EUR/USD: +33 pips (+0.28%) to 1.1658

GBP/USD: +112 pips (+0.84%) to 1.3433

USD/JPY: +7 pips (+0.04%) to 158.83

USD/CHF: -28 pips (-0.36%) to 0.7839

AUD/USD: +22 pips (+0.31%) to 0.717

USD/CAD: -14 pips (-0.10%) to 1.3735

Digital Assets:

Bitcoin slipped $1,217 (-1.56%) to $77,040, while Ethereum declined $62 (-2.84%) to $2,126.

Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.

Crude Oil (WTI)‎ (N6)‎ intraday: choppy.

Pivot:

100.25

Our preference:

Long positions above 100.25 with targets at 103.60 & 105.20 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 100.25 look for further downside with 98.60 & 97.30 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is mixed and calls for caution.

Trade

Gold intraday: consolidation in place.

Pivot:

4588

Our preference:

Short positions below 4588 with targets at 4500 & 4480 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 4588 look for further upside with 4605 & 4631 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is mixed to bearish.

Trade

S&P 500 (CME)‎ (M6)‎ intraday: consolidation in place.

Pivot:

7453

Our preference:

Short positions below 7453 with targets at 7373 & 7340 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 7453 look for further upside with 7496 & 7537 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is mixed to bearish.

Trade

EUR/USD intraday : under pressure below 1.1658

Our pivot point is at 1.1658.

Our preference:

Under pressure below 1.1658

Alternative scenario:

Above 1.1658, look for 1.1682 and 1.1696.

Comment:

The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and positive. The MACD must penetrate its zero line to expect further downside. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.1643 and 1.1631).

Trade

GBP/USD intraday : as long as 1.3371 is support look for 1.3484

Our pivot point is at 1.3371.

Our preference:

As long as 1.3371 is support look for 1.3484

Alternative scenario:

Below 1.3371, expect 1.3332 and 1.3309.

Comment:

The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and positive. The price could retrace. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.3393 and 1.3352).

Trade

USD/JPY intraday : the upside prevails as long as 158.76 is support

Our pivot point is at 158.76.

Our preference:

The upside prevails as long as 158.76 is support

Alternative scenario:

Below 158.76, expect 158.48 and 158.30.

Comment:

The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 158.88 and 158.86). Finally, the USD/JPY is trading above its upper Bollinger band (standing at 159.06).

Trade

Silver intraday: key resistance at 79.20.

Pivot:

79.20

Our preference:

Short positions below 79.20 with targets at 75.30 & 73.80 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 79.20 look for further upside with 81.66 & 83.80 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is mixed.

Trade

Dow Jones (CME)‎ (M6)‎ intraday: key resistance at 49850.

Pivot:

49850

Our preference:

Short positions below 49850 with targets at 49350 & 49140 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 49850 look for further upside with 49980 & 50100 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is mixed with a bearish bias.

Trade

TRADING FOREIGN EXCHANGE ON MARGIN CARRIES A HIGH LEVEL OF RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT YOU COULD SUSTAIN A LOSS OF SOME OR ALL OF YOUR INITIAL INVESTMENT AND THEREFORE YOU SHOULD NOT INVEST MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. BEFORE DECIDING TO TRADE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OR CFD’S YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES, LEVEL OF EXPERIENCE, AND RISK APPETITE.

YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF ALL THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND OTHER CFD TRADING, AND SEEK ADVICE FROM AN INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS. VPFX RECOMMENDS READING THE RISK DISCLOSURE SECTION OF THE PROSPECTUS FOR ANY FINANCIAL PRODUCT MENTIONED.

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