Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Ventura Prime FX! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you.
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DAILY NEWS BRIEF - MARKET OUTLOOK
October 16, 2026
 
   
 
Crude Oil (WTI)   Gold   GBP/USD   USD/JPY   EUR/USD   Silver   Dow Jones (CME)   S&P 500 (CME)  
 
 
  Market Wrap  
 
  Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities  
 
 
On Thursday, the Dow Jones jumped 556 points (+1.08%) to 52,177, and the S&P 500 rose 25 points (+0.33%) to 7,744. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 pared most of its early loss to close just 15 points lower (-0.05%) at 29,935.

U.S. data showed that producer price inflation accelerated to 6.3% year-on-year and 1.3% month-on-month in September, both exceeding expectations and reaching the highest levels since 2022.

However, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield dropped 11.5 basis points to 5.079% on signs that investors bought government bonds on the dip.

The Dow Jones was lifted by healthcare, consumer, and industrial stocks, with UnitedHealth Group (UNH) rising 2.74%, Eli Lilly (LLY) up 3.37%, Nike (NKE) up 5.27%, Home Depot (HD) up 4.33%, and Sherwin-Williams (SHW) up 3.84%.

Microsoft (MSFT) gained 1.08%, while Tesla (TSLA) slipped 1.29%, posting a fourth consecutive session of declines.

Semiconductor stocks closed mixed, with Nvidia (NVDA) losing 1.91%, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) down 1.49%, and Intel (INTC) down 2.85%, while Micron Technology (MU) rebounded 1.90%, Qualcomm (QCOM) rose 3.31%, and Arm Holdings (ARM) gained 2.82%.

Regarding artificial-intelligence (AI) infrastructure stocks, CoreWeave (CRWV) rebounded 5.91%, Oracle (ORCL) rose 2.94%, and Nebius Group (NBIS) was up 1.26%, while Dell Technologies (DELL) fell a further 6.85%, extending its decline to a fourth straight session.

Most software stocks performed well, with ServiceNow (NOW) jumping 6.15%, Salesforce (CRM) up 4.51%, and Intuit (INTU) up 6.34%.

Penske Automotive Group (PAG) surged 8.84% after Motown Acquisition Corp agreed to take the company private at 212 dollars a share in cash, valuing the auto retailer at 16.3 billion dollars.

International Paper (IP) bounced 6.90% after reports that private equity firms Lone Star and Atlas Holdings are exploring separate bids for its European packaging business, potentially valued at less than 6 billion dollars.

European stocks closed higher earlier, with the DAX 40 adding 0.33%, the CAC 40 up 0.78%, and the FTSE 100 up 1.08%.

U.S. WTI crude futures advanced 2.88 dollars (+3.03%) to 97.97 dollars a barrel, extending their rally to a sixth session.

Spot gold rebounded 66 dollars (+1.60%) to 4,171 dollars an ounce, halting a three-session decline.
 
 
  Market Wrap: Forex  
 
 
The U.S. dollar retreated Thursday despite hotter-than-expected producer price inflation data, with EUR/USD rebounding 62 pips to 1.1218 and USD/JPY falling 32 pips to 157.97.

U.S. retail sales grew 0.8% month-on-month in September, more than expected.

GBP/USD climbed 81 pips to 1.3273. U.K. data showed that gross domestic product increased 0.1% month-on-month in August, in contrast to an expected decline of 0.1%. Industrial production grew 0.8% month-on-month in August, much better than expected.

AUD/USD fell 50 pips to 0.6920.

USD/CHF declined 83 pips to 0.8266, and USD/CAD eased 52 pips to 1.4184.

Bitcoin briefly dipped below 80,000 dollars during the session before swiftly rebounding to 82,000 dollars.
 
 
  Morning Trading  
 
 
In Asian trading hours, EUR/USD and GBP/USD were both steady, at 1.1215 and 1.3277 respectively.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY was little changed at 158.00.

Gold eased to 4,156 dollars.

Bitcoin was stable at 82,064 dollars.
 
 
  Expected Today  
 
 
The eurozone's trade surplus is anticipated at 14.7 billion euros in August.

In the U.S., industrial production is projected to grow 0.4% month-on-month in September.
 
 
 
 
  Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.
 
 
     
 
Crude Oil (WTI)‎ (Z6)‎ intraday: the upside prevails.
 
Pivot:
94.70
 
Our preference:
Long positions above 94.70 with targets at 98.00 & 99.00 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
Below 94.70 look for further downside with 93.60 & 92.50 as targets.
 
Comment:
Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
Trade
 
 
 
 
 
Gold intraday : Target level as a potential turning point
 
Our pivot point is at 4,110.
 
Our preference:
The upside prevails as long as 4,110 is support, with 4,195 and 4,217 as targets
 
Alternative scenario:
Below 4,110, expect 4,073 and 4,051.
 
Comment:
As prices near our first target, a throwback could occur, though a clean break above could fuel further gains.
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
Trade
 
 
 
 
 
GBP/USD intraday : 1.3356 in sight
 
Our pivot point is at 1.3290.
 
Our preference:
The upside prevails as long as 1.3290 is support, with 1.3356 and 1.3372 as targets
 
Alternative scenario:
Below 1.3290, expect 1.3264 and 1.3248.
 
Comment:
The RSI is above 70. It could mean either that the price is in a lasting uptrend or just overbought and therefore bound to correct (look for bearish divergence in this case). The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.3291 and 1.3273).
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
Trade
 
 
 
 
 
USD/JPY intraday : 157.58 expected
 
Our pivot point is at 158.59.
 
Our preference:
Under pressure below 158.59, with 157.58 and 157.34 as targets
 
Alternative scenario:
Above 158.59, look for 158.99 and 159.23.
 
Comment:
The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 157.99 and 157.97).
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
Trade
 
 
 
 
 
EUR/USD intraday : Towards 1.1273
 
Our pivot point is at 1.1219.
 
Our preference:
The upside prevails as long as 1.1219 is support, with 1.1273 and 1.1285 as targets
 
Alternative scenario:
Below 1.1219, expect 1.1199 and 1.1186.
 
Comment:
The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.1224 and 1.1217).
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
Trade
 
 
 
 
 
Silver intraday : Watching for a Trigger Above Resistance
 
Our pivot point is at 56.31.
 
Our preference:
The upside prevails as long as 56.31 is support, with 58.29 and 58.82 as targets
 
Alternative scenario:
Below 56.31, expect 55.42 and 54.89.
 
Comment:
Prices are now closing in on our first target. Should this level hold, a throwback is likely to emerge; however, a convincing break above it could open the door to additional upside.
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
Trade
 
 
 
 
 
Dow Jones (CME)‎ (Z6)‎ intraday: caution.
 
Pivot:
52600
 
Our preference:
Short positions below 52600 with targets at 52160 & 51900 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
Above 52600 look for further upside with 53000 & 53200 as targets.
 
Comment:
The index currently faces a challenging resistance area at 52600.
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
Trade
 
 
 
 
 
S&P 500 (CME)‎ (Z6)‎ intraday: caution.
 
Pivot:
7825
 
Our preference:
Short positions below 7825 with targets at 7764 & 7717 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
Above 7825 look for further upside with 7849 & 7875 as targets.
 
Comment:
The index currently faces a challenging resistance area at 7825.
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
Trade
 
 
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