DAILY NEWS BRIEF - MARKET OUTLOOK

August 18, 2026

Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Ventura Prime FX! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you.

Crude Oil (WTI) Gold USD/JPY EUR/USD Dow Jones (CME) S&P 500 (CME) GBP/USD Silver

Market Wrap

Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Monday, major U.S. stock indexes declined further, with the S&P 500 slipping 40 points (-0.52%) to 7,745, the Nasdaq 100 down 50 points (-0.17%) to 29,995, and the Dow Jones down 272 points (-0.51%) to 53,459.

Mega-cap tech stocks closed in negative territory, with Meta (META) falling 3.54%, Microsoft (MSFT) down 3.04%, and Tesla (TSLA) down 0.87%.

Data-storage and memory stocks rebounded further, with SanDisk (SNDK) jumping 8.88%, Western Digital (WDC) up 5.35%, and Micron Technology (MU) up 4.13%. Reports said the U.S. government urged Apple (AAPL) not to buy Chinese memory chips.

Applied Materials (AMAT) rebounded 5.55%, recovering the loss made in the prior session.

Bitcoin traded higher, lifting related stocks, with Strategy (MSTR) gaining 4.99% and Coinbase (COIN) up 1.40%.

The U.S. 10-year yield was up for a second session, advancing 3.4 basis points to 4.726%.

European stocks also closed lower, with the DAX 40 falling 0.38%, the CAC 40 down 0.66%, and the FTSE 100 down 0.28%.

U.S. WTI crude futures remained buoyed, rising 2.10 dollars (+2.55%) to 84.50 dollars a barrel.

Spot gold added 40 dollars to 4,416 dollars an ounce.

Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar weakened further, with EUR/USD gaining 9 pips to 1.1578, GBP/USD adding 13 pips to 1.3543, AUD/USD up 23 pips to 0.7104.

USD/JPY rose 17 pips to 159.47, while USD/CHF retreated 24 pips to 0.8107.

In the U.S., the New York State manufacturing index rose to 20.6 in August, well above expectations.

USD/CAD was little changed at 1.3872. Canada’s inflation rate accelerated to 3.0% year-on-year in July, higher than expected.

Bitcoin bounced more than 2% to 64,300 dollars.

Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.

Crude Oil (WTI)‎ (V6)‎ intraday: target 85.85.

Pivot:

82.90

Our preference:

Long positions above 82.90 with targets at 84.70 & 85.85 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 82.90 look for further downside with 82.25 & 81.30 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI shows upside momentum.

Trade

Gold intraday : Aim at 4,444

Our pivot point is at 4,360.

Our preference:

The upside prevails as long as 4,360 is support, with 4,444 and 4,466 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Below 4,360, expect 4,324 and 4,303.

Comment:

The MACD is below its signal line and positive. The price is below its 20 period moving average (4,418) but above its 50 period moving average (4,408).

Trade

USD/JPY intraday : Key resistance level approaches

Our pivot point is at 159.01.

Our preference:

The upside prevails as long as 159.01 is support, with 159.77 and 159.97 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Below 159.01, expect 158.68 and 158.49.

Comment:

Prices are now closing in on our first target. Should this level hold, a throwback is likely to emerge; however, a convincing break above it could open the door to additional upside.

Trade

EUR/USD intraday : Pivotal moment

Our pivot point is at 1.1590.

Our preference:

The downside prevails as long as 1.1590 is resistance, with 1.1548 and 1.1536 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Above 1.1590, look for 1.1610 and 1.1622.

Comment:

Price is close to our pivot level; this could be the last opportunity for a reversal.

Trade

Dow Jones (CME)‎ (U6)‎ intraday: look for 53340.

Pivot:

53720

Our preference:

Short positions below 53720 with targets at 53340 & 53080 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 53720 look for further upside with 54000 & 54140 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.

Trade

S&P 500 (CME)‎ (U6)‎ intraday: target 7700.

Pivot:

7780

Our preference:

Short positions below 7780 with targets at 7738 & 7700 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 7780 look for further upside with 7800 & 7821 as targets.

Comment:

A break below 7738 would trigger a drop towards 7700.

Trade

GBP/USD intraday : Risk escalating

Our pivot point is at 1.3565.

Our preference:

The downside prevails as long as 1.3565 is resistance, with 1.3497 and 1.3478 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Above 1.3565, look for 1.3597 and 1.3617.

Comment:

Price is almost testing our pivot level; this may be the last chance for a reversal.

Trade

Silver intraday : Aim at 67.53

Our pivot point is at 64.82.

Our preference:

As long as 64.82 is support, look for 68.15

Alternative scenario:

Below 64.82, expect 63.78 and 63.16.

Comment:

The MACD is above its signal line and positive.

Trade

TRADING FOREIGN EXCHANGE ON MARGIN CARRIES A HIGH LEVEL OF RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT YOU COULD SUSTAIN A LOSS OF SOME OR ALL OF YOUR INITIAL INVESTMENT AND THEREFORE YOU SHOULD NOT INVEST MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. BEFORE DECIDING TO TRADE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OR CFD’S YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES, LEVEL OF EXPERIENCE, AND RISK APPETITE.

YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF ALL THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND OTHER CFD TRADING, AND SEEK ADVICE FROM AN INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS. VPFX RECOMMENDS READING THE RISK DISCLOSURE SECTION OF THE PROSPECTUS FOR ANY FINANCIAL PRODUCT MENTIONED.

VPFX is the trading name for Ventura Prime FX Limited with registration number LL16224 registered in Labuan F.T., Malaysia.

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