DAILY NEWS BRIEF - MARKET OUTLOOK

September 16, 2026

Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Ventura Prime FX! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you.

Crude Oil (WTI) Gold GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/USD Silver Dow Jones (CME) S&P 500 (CME)

Market Wrap

Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Tuesday, major U.S. stock indexes declined further, with the S&P 500 falling 34 points (-0.45%) to 7,585, the Nasdaq 100 down 189 points (-0.65%) to 28,937, and the Dow Jones down 328 points (-0.63%) to 52,093.

U.S. WTI crude futures advanced 4.44 dollars (+4.38%) to 105.83 dollars a barrel, a four-month high. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield touched a high of 5.041%, its highest level since July 2007.

Against this backdrop, the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its interest-rate decision on Wednesday, with markets pricing odds of a 25-basis-point hike at over 90%.

Energy stocks continued to benefit from rallying oil prices, with APA Corp (APA) rising 5.29%, ExxonMobil (XOM) up 2.57%, and Chevron (CVX) up 2.64%.

Semiconductors were mixed after Monday's rout. Qualcomm (QCOM) advanced 4.25% and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) gained 2.19%, while Broadcom (AVGO) fell 1.58% and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) was down 1.02%.

CrowdStrike (CRWD) climbed 3.02% higher after surging 14% in the prior session.

Bitcoin and crypto-related stocks dropped after the U.S. Senate blocked the advancement of the Clarity Act crypto regulatory bill, with Coinbase (COIN) tumbling 10.10%, Strategy (MSTR) down 5.36%, and Robinhood Markets (HOOD) down 3.39%.

European stocks also closed lower, with the DAX 40 dipping 0.15%, the CAC 40 down 0.34%, and the FTSE 100 down 0.37%.

Spot gold stayed soft, easing 5 dollars to 4,293 dollars an ounce.

Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar maintained its strength as the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hike interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday.

The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to 7.6 in September (vs 14.7 expected, 20.6 in August).

USD/JPY bounced a further 74 pips to 155.09, while EUR/USD remained subdued at 1.1544.

GBP/USD slipped to 1.3478. The latest U.K. jobless rate held steady at 4.9%, lower than expected. Meanwhile, the Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday.

AUD/USD slipped 8 pips to 0.7132, while USD/CHF advanced to 0.8187, and USD/CAD added 16 pips to 1.3920.

Bitcoin sank more than 3% to 75,300 dollars after the U.S. Senate voted against advancing the Clarity Act.

Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, USD/JPY climbed to 155.32. Japan's exports rose 28.0% year-on-year in August (vs +26.3% expected), while machinery orders dropped 3.7% month-on-month in July (vs -2.8% estimated).

Meanwhile, EUR/USD fell to 1.1540 and GBP/USD remained subdued at 1.3475.

Gold rebounded to 4,312 dollars.

Bitcoin edged up to 75,958 dollars.

Expected Today

The U.K. core inflation rate is expected to stay at 2.6% year-on-year in August.

The eurozone's industrial production is estimated to drop 0.2% month-on-month in July.

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve is expected to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% - 4.00%. Also, retail sales are expected to increase by 0.8% month-on-month in August.

Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.

Crude Oil (WTI)‎ (X6)‎ intraday: bullish bias above 98.50.

Pivot:

98.50

Our preference:

Long positions above 98.50 with targets at 103.00 & 104.40 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 98.50 look for further downside with 96.40 & 94.80 as targets.

Comment:

Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Trade

Gold intraday : Look for 4,402

Our pivot point is at 4,282.

Our preference:

The upside prevails as long as 4,282 is support, with 4,402 and 4,432 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Below 4,282, expect 4,230 and 4,200.

Comment:

The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 4,300 and 4,293).

Trade

GBP/USD intraday : Watch 1.3463

Our pivot point is at 1.3515.

Our preference:

The downside prevails as long as 1.3515 is resistance, with 1.3463 and 1.3451 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Above 1.3515, look for 1.3535 and 1.3548.

Comment:

A break of the next key level will determine the market's next direction.

Trade

USD/JPY intraday : Look for 156.18

Our pivot point is at 154.95.

Our preference:

The upside prevails as long as 154.95 is support, with 156.18 and 156.53 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Below 154.95, expect 154.36 and 154.01.

Comment:

The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and positive. The price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 155.24 and 155.07).

Trade

EUR/USD intraday : Gains at stake near target

Our pivot point is at 1.1520.

Our preference:

Rebound towards 1.1568

Alternative scenario:

Below 1.1520, expect 1.1504 and 1.1495.

Comment:

As prices near our first target, a throwback could occur, though a clean break above could fuel further gains.

Trade

Silver intraday : Watching for a Trigger Above Resistance

Our pivot point is at 62.83.

Our preference:

The upside prevails as long as 62.83 is support, with 65.29 and 65.97 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Below 62.83, expect 61.70 and 61.03.

Comment:

Price is consolidating just below a key resistance level, setting the stage for an upside attempt.

Trade

Dow Jones (CME)‎ (Z6)‎ intraday: key resistance at 52820.

Pivot:

52820

Our preference:

Short positions below 52820 with targets at 52200 & 52000 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 52820 look for further upside with 53100 & 53340 as targets.

Comment:

The upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 52820.

Trade

S&P 500 (CME)‎ (Z6)‎ intraday: the downside prevails.

Pivot:

7720

Our preference:

Short positions below 7720 with targets at 7623 & 7590 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 7720 look for further upside with 7750 & 7770 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is mixed to bearish.

Trade

TRADING FOREIGN EXCHANGE ON MARGIN CARRIES A HIGH LEVEL OF RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT YOU COULD SUSTAIN A LOSS OF SOME OR ALL OF YOUR INITIAL INVESTMENT AND THEREFORE YOU SHOULD NOT INVEST MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. BEFORE DECIDING TO TRADE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OR CFD’S YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES, LEVEL OF EXPERIENCE, AND RISK APPETITE.

YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF ALL THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND OTHER CFD TRADING, AND SEEK ADVICE FROM AN INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS. VPFX RECOMMENDS READING THE RISK DISCLOSURE SECTION OF THE PROSPECTUS FOR ANY FINANCIAL PRODUCT MENTIONED.

VPFX is the trading name for Ventura Prime FX Limited with registration number LL16224 registered in Labuan F.T., Malaysia.

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