DAILY NEWS BRIEF - MARKET OUTLOOK

October 14, 2026

Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Ventura Prime FX! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you.

Crude Oil (WTI) Gold GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/USD Silver Dow Jones (CME) S&P 500 (CME)

Market Wrap

Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Tuesday, major U.S. stock indexes still lacked momentum, with the S&P 500 slipping 1 point (-0.02%) to 7,805, the Nasdaq 100 down 95 points (-0.31%) to 30,569, and the Dow Jones down 180 points (-0.35%) to 51,670.

Meta Platforms (META) gained 2.63% as optimism around its newly released AI model "Muse Wonder" continued.

Four of the biggest U.S. banks kicked off the third-quarter earnings season. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) slipped 0.86% after missing estimates, while Goldman Sachs (GS) eased 0.23% despite a blowout quarter led by equities trading.

Citigroup (C) fell 5.60% despite beating Street forecasts and raising its full-year net interest income guidance, while Wells Fargo (WFC) dropped 3.10% after an earnings beat paired with a revenue miss.

Semiconductor stocks closed mixed, with Applied Materials (AMAT) falling 6.69% and Micron Technology (MU) down 3.62%, while Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rebounded 1.90% and Nvidia (NVDA) was up 0.97%.

Energy stocks advanced again as oil prices remained at elevated levels, with ConocoPhillips (COP) rising 2.43%, Chevron (CVX) up 1.27%, and ExxonMobil (XOM) gaining 1.12%.

Oracle (ORCL) rose 4.23% after proposing an energy agreement for its Project Jupiter AI data center in New Mexico.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) dropped 5.73% after its MedTech division posted weaker-than-expected sales growth, even as the company raised full-year sales and earnings guidance.

Bumble (BMBL) surged 56.58% after the online dating platform agreed to be taken private by Ithaca Holdings in a 1.3-billion-dollar all-cash deal.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield eased 2.5 basis points to 5.217%.

European stocks closed modestly lower, with the DAX 40 dipping 0.07%, the CAC 40 down 0.07%, and the FTSE 100 down 0.06%.

U.S. WTI crude futures added 0.40 dollars to 94.14 dollars a barrel, rising for a fourth straight session.

Spot gold eased 10 dollars to 4,161 dollars an ounce.

Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar softened slightly as the Dollar Index eased from its 18-month high, with EUR/USD rising 43 pips to 1.1198 and USD/JPY falling 26 pips to 158.30.

Major U.S. inflation data will be released later today.

GBP/USD advanced 47 pips to 1.3254, and AUD/USD rose 24 pips to 0.6982.

USD/CHF declined 22 pips to 0.8324, and USD/CAD fell 65 pips to 1.4215.

Bitcoin regained some traction, jumping 2% to 83,400 dollars.

Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, EUR/USD was firm at 1.1206, and GBP/USD rose to 1.3268.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY edged up to 158.38.

China's exports rose 36.3% year-on-year in September (vs +25.5% expected), while imports climbed 31.0% (vs +24.5% estimated). Separately, China's consumer price index edged up to 0.9% year-on-year in September (vs 1.0% expected), while the producer price index rose 5.0% (vs 4.5% estimated).

Gold was little changed at 4,160 dollars.

Bitcoin was broadly steady at 83,171 dollars.

Expected Today

In the U.S., the core inflation rate is expected to edge up to 2.5% year-on-year in September.

Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.

Crude Oil (WTI)‎ (Z6)‎ intraday: aim @ 96.40.

Pivot:

91.90

Our preference:

Long positions above 91.90 with targets at 96.40 & 98.20 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 91.90 look for further downside with 90.90 & 88.90 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.

Trade

Gold intraday : 4,209 expected

Our pivot point is at 4,118.

Our preference:

In spite of the current correction, a rebound near 4,232 is expected as long as 4,118 is still intact

Alternative scenario:

Below 4,118, expect 4,081 and 4,059.

Comment:

The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The price stands above its 20 period moving average (4,161) but below its 50 period moving average (4,171).

Trade

GBP/USD intraday : Target 1.3307

Our pivot point is at 1.3250.

Our preference:

The upside prevails as long as 1.3250 is support, with 1.3307 and 1.3323 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Below 1.3250, expect 1.3223 and 1.3208.

Comment:

The RSI is above 70. It could mean either that the price is in a lasting uptrend or just overbought and therefore bound to correct (look for bearish divergence in this case). The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 1.3261 and 1.3248).

Trade

USD/JPY intraday : Pivotal moment

Our pivot point is at 158.12.

Our preference:

The upside prevails as long as 158.12 is support, with 158.99 and 159.23 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Below 158.12, expect 157.72 and 157.48.

Comment:

The asset price is approaching our pivot level, which represents one of the last opportunities for the asset to reverse its recent trend.

Trade

EUR/USD intraday : First target, continuation or consolidation?

Our pivot point is at 1.1175.

Our preference:

The upside prevails as long as 1.1175 is support, with 1.1219 and 1.1231 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Below 1.1175, expect 1.1154 and 1.1142.

Comment:

Price is consolidating just below a key resistance level, setting the stage for an upside attempt.

Trade

Silver intraday : Watching for a Trigger Below Support

Our pivot point is at 60.92.

Our preference:

The downside prevails as long as 60.92 is resistance, with 58.70 and 58.14 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Above 60.92, look for 61.86 and 62.42.

Comment:

As prices close in on our first target, this level may spark a pullback. However, a definitive break below it could pave the way for a deeper decline.

Trade

Dow Jones (CME)‎ (Z6)‎ intraday: choppy.

Pivot:

52600

Our preference:

Short positions below 52600 with targets at 51615 & 51300 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 52600 look for further upside with 53000 & 53200 as targets.

Comment:

Technically the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50.

Trade

S&P 500 (CME)‎ (Z6)‎ intraday: choppy.

Pivot:

7887

Our preference:

Short positions below 7887 with targets at 7830 & 7800 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 7887 look for further upside with 7920 & 7950 as targets.

Comment:

Even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Trade

TRADING FOREIGN EXCHANGE ON MARGIN CARRIES A HIGH LEVEL OF RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT YOU COULD SUSTAIN A LOSS OF SOME OR ALL OF YOUR INITIAL INVESTMENT AND THEREFORE YOU SHOULD NOT INVEST MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. BEFORE DECIDING TO TRADE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OR CFD’S YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES, LEVEL OF EXPERIENCE, AND RISK APPETITE.

YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF ALL THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND OTHER CFD TRADING, AND SEEK ADVICE FROM AN INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS. VPFX RECOMMENDS READING THE RISK DISCLOSURE SECTION OF THE PROSPECTUS FOR ANY FINANCIAL PRODUCT MENTIONED.

VPFX is the trading name for Ventura Prime FX Limited with registration number LL16224 registered in Labuan F.T., Malaysia.

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