DAILY NEWS BRIEF - MARKET OUTLOOK

November 12, 2026

Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Ventura Prime FX! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you.

Crude Oil (WTI) Gold USD/JPY EUR/USD Dow Jones (CME) S&P 500 (CME) GBP/USD Silver

Market Wrap

Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Wednesday, tech stocks led a market rebound, with the Nasdaq 100 rising 633 points (+2.28%) to 28,374, the S&P 500 up 98 points (+1.31%) to 7,619, and the Dow Jones up 254 points (+0.49%) to 52,486.

CoreWeave (CRWV), an AI cloud infrastructure provider, soared 24.71%, its biggest daily percentage gain in more than three months, after reporting better-than-expected third-quarter results and raising its full-year revenue guidance.

Other AI-infrastructure stocks also showed strong gains, with Nebius Group (NBIS) rising 15.44%, Bloom Energy (BE) up 12.97%, and Dell Technologies (DELL) up 11.75%.

Nvidia (NVDA) rose 2.87%, snapping two sessions of sharp declines, though it finished well off its session highs. House Republicans have asked company founder and CEO Jensen Huang for a closed-door briefing.

Semiconductor stocks rallied broadly, with Arm Holdings (ARM) jumping 12.05%, Micron Technology (MU) up 11.89%, Intel (INTC) up 7.52%, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) up 7.32%, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) up 4.25%, and Broadcom (AVGO) up 3.99%.

In fact, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 5.66%, filling back the bearish gap which was opened when it plunged 12% last Thursday.

Data-storage stocks also outperformed the market, with Sandisk (SNDK) rising 13.69%, Seagate Technology (STX) up 9.99%, and Western Digital (WDC) gaining 8.34%.

Tesla (TSLA) advanced 2.91%, extending its rebound to a fourth session, Apple (AAPL) gained 2.04%, and Alphabet (GOOGL) was up 2.11%, while Amazon (AMZN) fell 1.74% and Meta Platforms (META) declined 1.97%.

Microsoft (MSFT) declined another 2.26% after losing 2% in the prior session.

Costco Wholesale (COST) rose 2.01% after declaring a special cash dividend of 30 dollars a share.

The U.S. bond market was closed on Veterans Day.

European stocks advanced, with the DAX 40 rising 1.20%, the CAC 40 up 0.66%, and the FTSE 100 up 0.78%.

U.S. WTI crude futures edged up 49 cents to 86.53 dollars a barrel.

Spot gold lost the 4,000-dollar handle again, as it dropped 44 dollars (-1.10%) to 3,988 dollars an ounce.

Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar strengthened across the board for a second session, with EUR/USD falling 75 pips to 1.1088 and USD/JPY up 111 pips to 159.84.

In view of hotter-than-expected October inflation data, Wall Street firm Goldman Sachs said it now expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to hike interest rates by 25 basis points in December and in March.

GBP/USD fell 70 pips to 1.3274, and AUD/USD dropped 20 pips to 0.6845.

USD/CHF gained 80 pips to 0.8331, and USD/CAD was up 61 pips to 1.4249.

Bitcoin regained the level of 74,000 dollars.

Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, Nvidia (NVDA) slid 8% on reports that the company’s board may consider ousting CEO Jensen Huang.

The U.S. dollar remained firm, with EUR/USD trading lower to 1.1075 and GBP/USD to 1.3257.

USD/JPY was buoyed at 159.80, while AUD/USD remained subdued at 0.6841.

Spot gold slipped further to 3,979 dollars an ounce following two losing sessions.

Bitcoin sank back to levels below 74,000 dollars.

Expected Today

The U.S. is expected to report a higher initial jobless claims of 195,000.

U.S. existing home sales are expected to grow 0.3% month on month in October.

U.K. gross domestic product is expected to show no growth month on month in September.

Canada's building permits may fall 4.0% month on month in September.

Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.

Crude Oil (WTI)‎ (Z6)‎ intraday: choppy.

Pivot:

89.20

Our preference:

Short positions below 89.20 with targets at 83.00 & 80.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Above 89.20 look for further upside with 92.50 & 96.00 as targets.

Comment:

As long as 89.20 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

Trade

Gold intraday : the RSI is oversold

Our pivot point is at 3,994.

Our preference:

The downside prevails as long as 3,994 is resistance, with 3,901 and 3,878 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Above 3,994, look for 4,032 and 4,055.

Comment:

The RSI is below 30. It could either mean that the price is in a lasting downtrend or just oversold and therefore bound to retrace (look for bullish divergence in this case). The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. The price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 3,978 and 4,003). The Gold is trading below its lower Bollinger band (standing at 3,955).

Trade

USD/JPY intraday : Target level as a potential turning point

Our pivot point is at 159.29.

Our preference:

As long as 159.29 is support, look for 160.09

Alternative scenario:

Below 159.29, expect 159.04 and 158.90.

Comment:

The approach toward our first target is a key moment to watch, it may trigger a throwback, yet a firm close above this threshold could provide the momentum needed to push the asset price higher.

Trade

EUR/USD intraday : Watching for a Trigger Above Resistance

Our pivot point is at 1.1050.

Our preference:

Rebound above 1.1050 towards 1.1114

Alternative scenario:

Below 1.1050, expect 1.1029 and 1.1016.

Comment:

The approach toward our first target is a key moment to watch, it may trigger a throwback, yet a firm close above this threshold could provide the momentum needed to push the asset price higher.

Trade

Dow Jones (CME)‎ (Z6)‎ intraday: the bias remains bullish.

Pivot:

51720

Our preference:

Long positions above 51720 with targets at 53180 & 53855 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 51720 look for further downside with 50860 & 49900 as targets.

Comment:

The RSI is mixed to bullish.

Trade

S&P 500 (CME)‎ (Z6)‎ intraday: bullish bias above 7480.

Pivot:

7480

Our preference:

Long positions above 7480 with targets at 7676 & 7750 in extension.

Alternative scenario:

Below 7480 look for further downside with 7320 & 7100 as targets.

Comment:

Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Trade

GBP/USD intraday : Rebound or deeper decline ahead?

Our pivot point is at 1.3306.

Our preference:

The downside prevails as long as 1.3306 is resistance, with 1.3248 and 1.3232 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Above 1.3306, look for 1.3333 and 1.3349.

Comment:

With prices nearing our first target, a pullback may emerge, though a clean break below could accelerate the downside.

Trade

Silver intraday : Watching for a Trigger Below Support

Our pivot point is at 53.36.

Our preference:

The downside prevails as long as 53.36 is resistance, with 51.22 and 50.69 as targets

Alternative scenario:

Above 53.36, look for 54.26 and 54.79.

Comment:

As prices close in on our first target, this level may spark a pullback. However, a definitive break below it could pave the way for a deeper decline.

Trade

TRADING FOREIGN EXCHANGE ON MARGIN CARRIES A HIGH LEVEL OF RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT YOU COULD SUSTAIN A LOSS OF SOME OR ALL OF YOUR INITIAL INVESTMENT AND THEREFORE YOU SHOULD NOT INVEST MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. BEFORE DECIDING TO TRADE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OR CFD’S YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES, LEVEL OF EXPERIENCE, AND RISK APPETITE.

YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF ALL THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND OTHER CFD TRADING, AND SEEK ADVICE FROM AN INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS. VPFX RECOMMENDS READING THE RISK DISCLOSURE SECTION OF THE PROSPECTUS FOR ANY FINANCIAL PRODUCT MENTIONED.

VPFX is the trading name for Ventura Prime FX Limited with registration number LL16224 registered in Labuan F.T., Malaysia.

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