Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Ventura Prime FX! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you.
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DAILY NEWS BRIEF - MARKET OUTLOOK
May 4, 2026
 
   
 
Crude Oil (WTI)   Gold   USD/JPY   EUR/USD   S&P 500 (CME)   GBP/USD   Silver   Dow Jones (CME)  
 
 
  Market Wrap  
 
  Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities  
 
 
On Friday, both the S&P 500 (up 21 points or 0.29% to 7,230) and the Nasdaq 100 (up 258 points or 0.94% to 27,710) marked record-high closing levels for a second straight session.

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones declined 152 points (-0.31%) to 49,499.

On a weekly basis, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 were up for five consecutive weeks.

Apple (AAPL) gained 3.24% after reporting upbeat quarterly results, outperforming other tech giants.

Tesla (TSLA) rose 2.41%, Microsoft (MSFT) climbed 1.63%, and Amazon (AMZN) was up 1.21%.

Stocks that became popular among investors recently also posted solid gains, with Sandisk (SNDK) jumping 8.25%, Seagate Technology (STX) up 7.91%, Intel (INTC) up 5.44%, and Micron (MU) up 4.84%. They all scored record closes.

Eli Lilly (LLY) advanced 3.07% after bouncing nearly 10% in the prior session, as strong demand for the company’s weight-loss and diabetes drugs boosted quarterly results and outlook.

Veeva Systems (VEEV) closed 10.02% higher, as the cloud-software maker was named a S&P 500 constituent.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield eased less than one basis point to 4.372%.

Both Germany’s and France’s markets were closed for the Labor Day holiday on Friday, while the FTSE 100 closed 0.14% lower.

On Monday, in early Asian trading hours, U.S. WTI crude futures dipped further to test support at the level of 100 dollars a barrel. U.S. President Donald Trump just said the U.S. will begin escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday.

And Iran said it had received a U.S. response to its latest offer for peace talks.

Gold price remained stable at levels above 4,600 dollars an ounce.
 
 
  Market Wrap: Forex  
 
 
On Monday, in early Asian trading hours, the U.S. dollar softened, with the dollar index easing to 98.11.

The U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index remained steady at 52.7 in April.

EUR/USD rebounded to 1.1738, and GBP/USD traded higher to 1.3590.

USD/JPY pulled back 38 pips to 156.69.

AUD/USD climbed to 0.7220, the highest level in nearly four years.

USD/CHF dipped 13 pips to 0.7808, and USD/CAD edged down 7 pips to 1.3584.

Bitcoin remained buoyed, surpassing the level of 79,000 dollars.
 
 
  Morning Trading  
 
 
In Asian trading hours, Bitcoin surpassed the level of 80,000 dollars.

AUD/USD kept trading at elevated levels above 0.7200.

EUR/USD eased to 1.1726, while USD/JPY rebounded to 157.22.

U.S. WTI crude futures managed to stay above 101 dollars a barrel, while gold was holding at 4,610 dollars an ounce.
 
 
  Expected Today  
 
 
U.S. factory orders are expected to grow 0.5% month on month in March.
 
 
 
 
  Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.
 
 
     
 
Crude Oil (WTI)‎ (M6)‎ Intraday: 100.10 expected.
 
Pivot:
103.60
 
Our preference:
Short positions below 103.60 with targets at 100.10 & 99.10 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
Above 103.60 look for further upside with 106.00 & 108.00 as targets.
 
Comment:
As long as 103.60 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
Trade
 
 
 
 
 
Gold Intraday: caution.
 
Pivot:
4585
 
Our preference:
Long positions above 4585 with targets at 4620 & 4640 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
Below 4585 look for further downside with 4560 & 4540 as targets.
 
Comment:
The RSI is mixed and calls for caution.
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
Trade
 
 
 
 
 
USD/JPY Intraday: choppy.
 
Pivot:
157.35
 
Our preference:
Short positions below 157.35 with targets at 155.55 & 155.00 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
Above 157.35 look for further upside with 157.85 & 158.40 as targets.
 
Comment:
As long as the resistance at 157.35 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 155.55 remains high.
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
Trade
 
 
 
 
 
EUR/USD Intraday: the bias remains bullish.
 
Pivot:
1.1710
 
Our preference:
Long positions above 1.1710 with targets at 1.1750 & 1.1770 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
Below 1.1710 look for further downside with 1.1690 & 1.1670 as targets.
 
Comment:
A support base at 1.1710 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
Trade
 
 
 
 
 
S&P 500 (CME)‎ (M6)‎ Intraday: the bias remains bullish.
 
Pivot:
7245
 
Our preference:
Long positions above 7245 with targets at 7300 & 7320 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
Below 7245 look for further downside with 7225 & 7200 as targets.
 
Comment:
A support base at 7245 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
Trade
 
 
 
 
 
GBP/USD Intraday: the bias remains bullish.
 
Pivot:
1.3560
 
Our preference:
Long positions above 1.3560 with targets at 1.3615 & 1.3635 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
Below 1.3560 look for further downside with 1.3535 & 1.3505 as targets.
 
Comment:
A support base at 1.3560 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
Trade
 
 
 
 
 
Silver Intraday: caution.
 
Pivot:
74.60
 
Our preference:
Long positions above 74.60 with targets at 75.80 & 76.40 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
Below 74.60 look for further downside with 73.80 & 73.00 as targets.
 
Comment:
Intraday technical indicators are mixed and call for caution.
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
Trade
 
 
 
 
 
Dow Jones (CME)‎ (M6)‎ Intraday: consolidation in place.
 
Pivot:
49865
 
Our preference:
Short positions below 49865 with targets at 49410 & 49250 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
Above 49865 look for further upside with 50100 & 50300 as targets.
 
Comment:
The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50%
 
Analyst Views Chart
 
Trade
 
 
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