Phillip Futures
Wednesday, January 17, 2018 If you cannot read this newsletter, click here
 
 
 
Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was bullish against most of its major pairs on Tuesday with the exception of the CAD and the CHF. The Empire manufacturing index reduced to 17.7 in January (estimated 19) compared to 19.6 in December.

The Euro was bearish most of its major pairs with the exception of the NZD. Germany CPI increased 0.6% in December in final estimation, as expected and after a 0.3% rise in November. UK CPI was up by 0.4% in December, as anticipated and after a 0.3% increase the month prior.

The Australian dollar was bearish most its major pairs except for the NZD.
 
Gold spot Intraday: turning up.
Pivot: 1332.00

Our preference: long positions above 1332.00 with targets at 1345.00 & 1350.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1332.00 look for further downside with 1322.50 & 1315.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI broke above a declining trend line.

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Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

 
EUR/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.
Pivot: 1.2240

Our preference: long positions above 1.2240 with targets at 1.2345 & 1.2390 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.2240 look for further downside with 1.2185 & 1.2155 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.

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Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

 
GBP/USD Intraday: supported by a rising trend line.
Pivot: 1.3765

Our preference: long positions above 1.3765 with targets at 1.3880 & 1.3920 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.3765 look for further downside with 1.3720 & 1.3685 as targets.

Comment: the RSI shows upside momentum.

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Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

 
USD/JPY Intraday: the downside prevails.
Pivot: 110.55

Our preference: short positions below 110.55 with targets at 109.95 & 109.76 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 110.55 look for further upside with 111.00 & 111.20 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is capped by a bearish trend line.

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Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

 
AUD/USD Intraday: consolidation.
Pivot: 0.7980

Our preference: short positions below 0.7980 with targets at 0.7940 & 0.7920 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 0.7980 look for further upside with 0.8015 & 0.8040 as targets.

Comment: the upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 0.7980.

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Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

 
USD/CAD Intraday: rebound expected.
Pivot: 1.2395

Our preference: long positions above 1.2395 with targets at 1.2450 & 1.2475 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.2395 look for further downside with 1.2365 & 1.2330 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.

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Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

 
USD/SGD Intraday: key resistance at 1.3250.
Pivot: 1.3250

Our preference: short positions below 1.3250 with targets at 1.3180 & 1.3140 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.3250 look for further upside with 1.3280 & 1.3300 as targets.

Comment: the RSI calls for a new downleg.

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Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

 
 
MA (50) & MA (20): The most simple trend indicators are Moving Averages. They simply correspond to an average calculated on an evolving time scale (20 and 50 periods): every day, the oldest value (often taken at the close) in the average calculus is replaced by the value of the new session.

Bollinger bands: are represented by 3 different bands and are derived from moving averages. The middle band corresponds to a simple moving average (MA (20)). The level of the upper band, in every point, corresponds to the sum of the level of the middle band and twice the value of the standard deviation associated to the 20-day moving average. Reciprocally, the level of the lower band corresponds to the level of the middle band diminished by twice the value of the standard deviation associated to the 20-day moving average. An envelop of the stock price is thus determined. This makes it possible to then identify the variation margin in which the stock should stay almost systematically. In the case of a stock following a Gauss law, 95 % of the trades will thus occur between these bands.

RSI (14): the Relative Strength Index aims at establishing a reference scale independently from the stock prices levels themselves. As the RSI has boundaries (0 and 100), it then becomes very easy to determine overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. In addition, just as on prices themselves, supports and resistances can appear, especially when nearing the neutrality zone (near 50). Thus, the RSI is one of the most commonly used counter-trend indicators.
It is based on the average of rises and drops of price, with the formula:
RSI = 100 - [100 / (1 + RS)]
Where RS represents the average of up closes divided by the average of down closes on the considered period (14).
 
 
 
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